2022 Election Analysis: San Diego Region’s City Contests
Did Republicans Pick Up Enough Seats to Gum Up the Works?
For a long time San Diego County’s smaller cities’ Republican elected officials tied our regional planning agency’s (SANDAG) vision for a more environmentally friendly approach in knots. They wanted more and bigger roads, outvoting the more densely populated areas, who wanted more transit and alternative modes of transportation.
That problem got solved via then-Assembly member Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher’s legislation shifting the decision making process by giving bigger cities a bigger voice via population weighted voting.
SANDAG had problems of its own, including questions of past financial malfeasance and flat out lying about what could be accomplished. Hasan Ikhrata was hired as director and a more transit friendly agenda began to take shape. Getting from vision to reality is proving to be a long slog.
Unfortunately, the planning projected the need for a “road tax” to replace lost revenues from declining gasoline sales in the 2030s, and it immediately became a third rail in local politics.
It’s now being portrayed as yet another way commie liberal environmentalists want to take stuff from God-fearing truck-driving Americans.
A half-cent increase in sales tax to fund (primarily) transit projects failed to get enough signatures to make this year’s ballot and has been punted down the road to 2024. This will likely turn out to be an epic failure in timing on the part of organized labor and citizen groups promising to get this on the ballot in a manner not requiring two thirds approval.
This year’s elections bode poorly for future transit expansion, as Coronado Mayor Richard Bailey now has additional votes to sidetrack transit expansion. Right wing candidates won city contests in Chula Vista, Escondido, National City and Carlsbad which should change the balance of power to a more “let's add lanes to freeways” mode.
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San Diego has finally achieved the milestone of not having any elected Republicans on the City Council. Unfortunately, the local big bucks players have already learned how to game Democrats, so don’t get your hopes up for any big policy shifts in the future.
The city has systemic issues when it comes to how it gets money thanks to the Balkanization of governance favored by the market-firsters. All the “special districts” and financial set-asides reduce its ability to govern from a big picture perspective. An attempt to pool development fees so underserved neighborhoods might get a better shot at infrastructure and quality of life projects is headed to court so the good people of La Jolla can continue to have nicer things.
The ticking time bomb for all California governments is homelessness. Short of diverting funding from law enforcement, there’s no way municipalities can afford to do much more than pay non-profit groups to slap Band-Aids on problems.
Local governments are all-too-often the front line in a no-win situation caused by systemic issues beyond their control. That’s not to say we shouldn’t demand they do everything they can to abate human suffering.
The State of California has stepped up efforts to facilitate the construction of more housing, and many of the same small minds that want more freeways are viewing it as a violation of their sacred right to tell people lower on the economic scale to live somewhere else.
The City of San Diego and the County Supervisors are aiming to do big things, not just in social services, but in infrastructure and development. The problem is that they all take time, and political opportunists are good at playing the instant gratification card while diverting funding to things more palatable to the monied classes. If there was ever a time for people to pay attention to what’s going on at the local level it’s now more than ever.
Ok, sermon over. Let’s look at some election results, starting with the bigger cities.
NOTES: If I identify a candidate with a political party, it means they were the endorsed candidate of that party. Voting results are expressed as percentages because the actual number of votes will be outdated soon after I publish this piece. The ratios are a more stable measure for this sort of analysis.
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San Diego City Council
District 2 - Incumbent Democrat Dr. Jen Campbell defeated Linda Lukacs, the only Republican running for a council seat, 55.15 % to 44.85%. The GOP candidate was on the ballot thanks to local big bucks donors who wanted to make sure Campbell wouldn’t have to face a Democrat in the general election.
District 4 - Incumbent Democrat Monica Montgomery Steppe crushed Gloria Evangelista, 66.86% to 33.14%. A progressive victory, for sure.
District 6 - Democrats Kent Lee and Tommy Hough competed for the seat vacated by termed out Republican Chris Cate. Lee courted the city establishment. Hough ran against downtown special interests and lost, 42.34% to Lee’s 57.66%.
District 8 - Incumbent Democrat Vivian Moreno easily defeated Antonio Martinez, 61.7% to 38.3%, and had a baby along the way.
City of Chula Vista
Mayor - Republican John McCann defeated Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar 54.93% to 45.07%, with a nasty campaign aiming to establish his opponent as not really from Chula Vista. It worked.
Council District 1 - Democrat Carolina Chavez defeated Republican Marco Contreras, 52.09% to 47.91%. She’s replacing John McCann, who apparently is to be the next mayor.
Council District 2 - Republican Steve Stenberg won over Democrat Jose Preciado 52.32% to 47.68% and will be replacing Councilmember Jill Galvez, who unsuccessfully ran for mayor in the June primary.
City Attorney! - Republicans have MAGAts, Democrats have maggots, and CV has a corpse on the ballot. Simon Silva (D) might be rising from the dead. It’s 50.2% Silva over 49.8% Republican Dan Smith. This may end in a ‘special’ election.
City of Oceanside
Council District 1 - Democrat Eric Joyce prevailed over appointed Republican incumbent Kori Jensen 38.94% to 33.94% in a five person contest. There was controversy over whether or not Jensen actually lived in Oceanside.
Council District 2 - Republican Richard Robinson beat Daniel Dominguez 54.61% to 45.39% in a contest for the seat held by retiring Christopher Rodriguez.
City of Escondido
Mayor - Incumbent Democrat Paul McNamara lost his seat to Republican Dane White, 51.16% to 48.84%. This qualifies as an upset, given that Democrats hold an advantage over Republicans in voter registration in Escondido, 38% to 30%, with 24% declining to state.
Council District 1 - Democratic incumbent Consuelo Martinez decisively held on to her seat, defeating Mike Johnson-Palomares 66.07% to 33.93%
Council District 2 - Republican incumbent Joe Garcia was re-elected, despite being moved via redistricting, defeating Democrat Jeff Griffith 51.72% to 48.28%
City of Carlsbad
Mayor - Republican Keith Blackburn will be the city’s first new mayor in over a decade, having defeated Michael Curtin 69.78% to 30.24%. Curtin asked for and was denied the Democratic party endorsement.
Council District 1 - Republican Melanie Burkholder will take this open seat after defeating Democrat Sam Ward by a few hundred votes in a five way race, 38.98% to 35.93%.
Council District 3 - Incumbent Democrat Priya Bhat-Patel won over Republican Ray Pearson 54.93% to 45.07%
City Clerk - Sherry Freisinger ran unopposed.
City Treasurer - Incumbent City Treasurer Craig Lindholm handily defeated Democrat Lance Schulte, 65.46% to 34.54%
City of El Cajon
Mayor - Incumbent Republican Bill Wells will be serving a third term, handily defeating Democrat Arnie Levine 72.35% to 27.65%.
Council District 1 - Gary Kendrick ran unopposed.
City of Vista
Mayor - Republican councilmember John Franklin defeated Democrat Cipriano Vargas for the open seat 54.03% to 45.97%
Council District 1 - Corinna Contreras ran unopposed for re-election
Council District 4 - It’s a squeaker. As I write this Democrat Dan O’Donnell is leading Republican Armen Kurdian by 45 votes, 50.24% to 49.76%.
City of San Marcos
Mayor - Incumbent Republican Rebecca Jones has defeated Democrat Randy Walton, 65.92% to 34.08%
Council District 1 - Maria Nuñez ran unopposed
Council District 2 - Republican Mike Sannella has defeated Democrat Jay Petrek, 45.46% to 36.42% in a four way race.
City of Encinitas
Mayor - Democrat Tony Kranz topped Cindy Cremona in a four way race to replace Catherine Blakespear, (who won a seat in the state Senate) 48.54% to 24.78%.
Council District 3 - Incumbent Democrat Joy Lyndes beat Julie Thunder 52.77% to 47.23% (Attn: Matt Strabone-Can I say Joy stole Julie’s thunder?)
Council District 4 - NIMBY Bruce Ehlers won over Democrat Pam Redela, 47.33% to 32.95% in a four way race.
National City
Mayor- Ron Morrison, who used to be a Republican when he held this seat in the past, is the victor in this contest, thanks to a falling out among Democrats. Morrison 38.88%, Democrat Jose Rodriguez 32.42%, incumbent Alejandra Sotelo-Solis 28.7%.
Council District 1 - Liz Molina ran unopposed.
Council District 3 - Democrat Ditas Yamane defeated Marissa Acierto 60.69% to 39.31%
City of La Mesa
Mayor - Incumbent Democrat Mark Arapostathis defeated Republican Kristine Alessio, 54.12% to 45.88%
Council At Large - Two open council seats will go to Republican Laura Lothian and Democrat Patricia Dillard who garnered 24.71% and 23.80% respectively in a field of five. The contrast between these two is huge. Lothian opposed flying a LGBTQ flag outside city hall; Dillard helped organize the city’s first Juneteenth celebration.
Treasurer - Democrat (and punster) Matt Strabone defeated Republican Bill Exeter, 52.3% to 47.7%.
City of Poway
Mayor- Incumbent Republican Steve Vaus has plenty to sing about as he defeated Democrat Delta Esparza 56.50% to 30.87% in a five way race.
Council District 1 - Republican Brian Pepin won over Democrat Hiram Soto, 56.% to 44% for the seat held by retiring Dave Grosch.
Council District 3 - Republican Peter De Hoff prevailed over Democrat Kevin Juza in a three way contest to replace retiring John Mullin, 44.87% to 35.87%.
City of Imperial Beach
Democrat Paloma Aguirre is barely ahead of Republican Shirley Nakawatase as I write this, 43.96% to 41.10%. Two other candidates received lesser amounts.
Council District 1 - Republican Carol Seabury beat Democrat Jen Crumley, 53.76% to 46.24%
Council District 3 - Mitch McKay won over Democrat Anna Webb 57.94% to 42.06%
City of Lemon Grove
At Large City Council - Democrats Jennifer Mendoza and Alysson Snow have captured two open positions, with 26.77% and 25.38% of the vote respectively in a field of five.
City of Coronado
At Large City Council - Republican John Duncan and NPP Carrie Anne Downey have won two open seats with 33.58% and 29.63% of the vote respectively in a field of four.
City of Solana Beach
Council District 2 - Incumbent Democrat Kristi Becker defeated Kristin Brinner 72.81% to 27.19%
Council District 4 - Jill MacDonald ran unopposed
City of Del Mar
At Large City Council - Incumbent Democrats Terry Gaasterland and Dwight Worden are victors in a three way race for two seats, with 44.37% and 28.81% of the vote respectively.
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