A First Look: Upcoming San Diego County Supervisor Elections
Voting in the 2020 California primary is a little more than 13 months away. As much of a pain in the whatever this might be, it’s high time we stopped Iowa and New Hampshire from framing national elections.
This week I’ll be taking a quick look around at what’s already shaping up for the March 3rd election. Mail-in ballots will go out several weeks earlier, so time’s a wasting.
I won’t dawdle on the Democratic presidential candidates in this round of posts. If you’re interested in playing a little mind game on what the possibilities are, I suggest Nate Silver’s test run at FiveThirtyEight.com on a method for evaluating Democratic presidential contenders. It’s doomed to failure, but amusing nonetheless. (Spoiler alert: Kamala Harris and Beto O’Rourke have the inside track.)
In the 2018 local elections, the foundation for fundamental change was laid. Nathan Fletcher won’t be the lone Democrat on the Board of Supervisors for much longer, and his presence has already shifted the possibilities of what San Diego County ought to be doing for its residents.
The next Supes seat likely to change hands is District 1, where Greg Cox is termed out. The demographics of the district --which includes Southern San Diego County-- are favorable to just about any Democrat who can claim a Latino heritage.
Port Commission Chairman Rafael Castellanos is the first candidate to officially jump into the contest. He finished third in the 2016 primary for San Diego City Attorney with 19.3% of the vote. A privately settled lawsuit alleging sexual harassment against him loomed over that contest.
From Voice of San Diego:
Castellanos maintained that a sexual harassment lawsuit against him was so outrageous that it was proven false and that anyone could go down to the courthouse and see that for themselves.
In reality, the lawsuit settled, though for what amounted to a small severance that he personally didn’t have to pay. But that information wasn’t public. And while Castellanos never admitted to doing anything wrong or physically intimidating in his deposition or settlement, McSpadden’s accusations against him under oath remain on the record.
Since 2016, Castellanos has heightened his profile in local Democratic circles, established a solid record at the Port Commission and built a campaign nest egg.
Nora Vargas, vice president for government relations at Planned Parenthood of the Pacific Southwest has filled forms to create her own committee and has an active ActBlue fundraising page.
Former City Councilman David Alvarez announced his candidacy a year ago, but is now reportedly having second thoughts. One report has Alvarez saying there’s only about a 30% chance he’ll run.
A recent VOSD article mentions State Senator Ben Hueso, and former City Councilwoman Marti Emerald as potential Democratic candidates. A possible Republican contender would be former Chula Vista Police Chief David Bejerano, but given the odds against a non-Democrat winning, it’s more likely we’ll see a third tier Tea Party activist type.
In District 3, incumbent Supervisor Kristin Gaspar’s shift rightward on immigration issues makes her vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. She placed fifth in the 2016 49th Congressional district primary, and is rumored to be looking for another opportunity.
Her ‘date’ for last year’s White House photo op and fear mongering session, Escondido Mayor Sam Abed went down in a surprising defeat last November. Gaspar sat across from President Trump as he said, during a discussion on undocumented immigrants and gang members: "These aren't people. These are animals."
Terra Lawson Remer, a high profile organizer of the flip the 49th campaign, has already told associates she’s planning to run. She’s progressive, quick witted, and knows how to build a winning grassroots organization.
Trump’s name will be on the ballot, and District 3 currently has nine thousand more Democrats than Republicans.
Ooops.... almost forgot Supes District 2, probably because there ain't much to tell there. (h/t Dave Myers)
District 2, where Dianne Jacobs is termed out, has a GOP advantage of 17,000 voters and a probable candidate (Joel "Bitch Slap" Anderson) who stashed $200,000 in GOP cash away just before a $25,000 cap on donations went into effect.
There are no San Diego County elections scheduled for 2019, according to the California Secretary of State.
Next Up: The San Diego City Council 2020 Contests
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Today’s Earth, Wind, Fire...
Earth - Beachfront property in Mission Hills?
The ice of Antarctica contains 57.2 meters, or 187.66 feet, of potential sea-level rise.
The Antarctic lost 40 billion tons of melting ice to the ocean each year from 1979 to 1989. That figure rose to 252 billion tons lost per year beginning in 2009, according to a study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. That means the region is losing six times as much ice as it was four decades ago, an unprecedented pace in the era of modern measurements. --Washington Post
Wind - Convention Center Blues, Homeless Humans, and a Transportation Jackpot
San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is scheduled to give his penultimate State of the City address tonight at the Balboa Theatre. He has used previous speeches to lay out his policy agenda for the next year, and there are several areas of interest that he will likely touch on.-- KPBS
Fire - The Teacher’s Strike in Los Angeles is a Big Deal
After years of working without a contract, the United Teachers of Los Angeles (UTLA) have decided to go on strike, shutting down the nation’s second-largest school district.
The union’s demands go well beyond better salaries and benefits, and include a call for lower class sizes (LA has some of the highest per-pupil class sizes in the nation), more counselors, nurses, and, most importantly, a moratorium on the authorization of charter schools (LA has more charter schools than any city in the nation).
UTLA President Alex Caputo-Pearl has characterized the dispute with the district as a fight for the future of public education. -- The Nation
Into the Twitterverse
