A Mid-Summer Special Election Nightmare

Invoking Culture Wars Isn't Helping Abortion Opponents in Ohio

Tuesdays in August aren’t well-known as election dates. Add in the fact that 2023 is an “off year” as far as federal contests are concerned, and you have a formula for tiny turnouts. The Republican party loves these election dates, because the smaller the electorate, the more conservative candidates and issues win.

I’m certain this assumption was top of mind when Ohio Republicans, knowing they were about to lose a general election ballot measure pushed by progressives enshrining the right to an abortion in the state constitution, called a special election one their quickly crafted Measure One for today (Aug 8). Voters in the Buckeye State are being asked to raise the winning threshold for ballot measures from 50%+1 to 60%, along with other obstacles to even get on the ballot, effective immediately.

Unless the rules were changed, Ohio Republicans knew that anti-abortion as an issue wasn’t playing well with electorates, even in blood Red states. One year ago, an August Tuesday election resulted in Kansas voters  –where conservative politics is considered part of the electoral DNA– overwhelmingly rejecting a constitutional amendment saying there was no right to an abortion in the state.

Despite right wing opinionators claiming the Kansas outcome was influenced by media reaction to the Supreme Court’s Dobbs case weeks earlier, voters throughout the country continue to show their dissatisfaction with anti-abortion candidates and measures. Key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin have shifted to the left coming out of campaigns where the right to abortion was an issue.

From the Washington Post:

• A year after Dobbs, has the issue lost its potency? Not according to the most recent polling by the Gallup organization. Gallup finds that only 14 percent of registered voters say abortion is not a major issue, a record low, 2 percentage points lower than a year ago and 9 percentage points lower than the previous record low of 23 percent in 2007.

• Not only does the issue remain potent, it also has more strength among those who favor abortion rights than among those who oppose them. Gallup’s new polling shows that 33 percent of registered voters who favor abortion rights, as compared with 23 percent of voters who oppose those rights, say they will only vote for candidates in major races who share their views on the issue. This marks a change in the balance between the two sides of the debate. For the two decades before the Dobbs decision, those who were abortion-centric in their voting behavior were more on the side of opposition to abortion rights.

So Ohio’s GOP legislators hoped a low turnout supporting Measure One would stop the pro-abortion juggernaut in their state. (They had other “incorrect” ideas in mind, like raising the minimum wage and having an independent commission draw electoral districts.) 

Although 2022 redistricting maps clearly aimed at diminishing Democrats electability were rejected four times by the state’s Republican-leaning Supreme Court, reactionaries decided this was an emergency and found a Trumpist-led federal appeals court to uphold this electoral abomination.

Via the New Yorker:

• Niven, the University of Cincinnati professor, told me that, according to one study, the laws being passed by Ohio’s statehouse place it to the right of the deeply conservative legislature in South Carolina. How did this happen, given that most Ohio voters are not ultra-conservatives? “It’s all about gerrymandering,” Niven told me. 

• The legislative-district maps in Ohio have been deliberately drawn so that many Republicans effectively cannot lose, all but ensuring that the Party has a veto-proof super-majority. As a result, the only contests most Republican incumbents need worry about are the primaries—and, because hard-core partisans dominate the vote in those contests, the sole threat most Republican incumbents face is the possibility of being outflanked by a rival even farther to the right. 

• The national press has devoted considerable attention to the gerrymandering of congressional districts, but state legislative districts have received much less scrutiny, even though they are every bit as skewed, and in some states far more so. “Ohio is about the second most gerrymandered statehouse in the country,” Niven told me. “It doesn’t have a voter base to support a total abortion ban, yet that’s a likely outcome.” He concluded, “Ohio has become the Hindenburg of democracy.”

This isn’t just an Ohio problem. Often-gerrymandered state legislatures around the country have passed right wing backed measures imposing draconian penalties on just about anybody connected to an abortion. (Trust me on this: birth control will be on their agendas in the near future.) 

The Jane Meyer article quoted above goes on to cite an Institute for Research and Education on Human Rights study, documenting the level of  right-wing extremism in US  statehouses. Of the 7,383 people who served in state legislatures in the 2021-22 session, eight hundred and seventy-five had joined far-right Facebook groups. 

The campaign to enact Measure One has been financed by Illinois billionaire Richard Uihlein (one of the top backers of the “Save America” rally that preceded the Jan 6 insurrection) even as they claim the constitutional amendment will keep at bay: 

• "Out-of-state special interests that put trans ideology in classrooms and encourage sex changes for kids are hiding behind slick ads."  

As Suffolk University polling on Measure One suggests, the state’s conservatives will find that invoking cultural war rhetoric to support an anti-abortion position is a losing proposition.

Their survey found "no" ahead by a strong 59-26 margin. Long lines throughout the state at early voting locations (limited to one per county) and an unusually high number of early ballots received give credence to a bad outcome for reactionary forces.

The right wasn’t through fighting despite indications they were losing. Republican Secretary of State, Frank LaRose just broke Ohio law by moving polling places—just five days—before the election for 47,000 voters in the largest African American voting county in Ohio.

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Speaking of special elections, next Tuesday is the final day for voting in the special election to replace former County Supervisor Nathan Fletcher. (The date has nothing to do with suppressing turnout) Make sure you vote! I have endorsed Monica Montgomery-Steppe.

Local Trumpanista TV station KUSI is going all-in for GOP candidate Amy Reichert, distinguishing themselves from local enforcement PACs who are opposing Council member Monica-Montgomery-Steppe (D) and supporting Janessa Goldbeck (D). 

Additionally the brilliant minds at the TV station have decided it’s time to revive their campaign against COVID vaccinations, as booster shots for the latest variant will soon be available. Many cities in the US are seeing a boost in reported cases of COVID.

And I’d like to remind anybody who has a relative addicted to KUSI about the study published by the American Medical Association's Internal Medicine journal:

• Overall, researchers found registered Republicans saw a 15% higher increase in excess deaths (that is, deaths beyond what would normally be expected) than Democrats over the period studied. Much of that was driven by the time period after April 1, 2021, when the Covid vaccine was readily available. 

• In the period between April 2021 and December 31, 2021, registered Republicans saw a 43% higher increase in excess deaths than Democrats did in Ohio and Florida. Much of the difference seems to have been driven by Ohio.

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Dispatches From a World on Fire

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Hillsborough schools cut back on Shakespeare, citing new Florida rules Via the Tampa Bay Times . I suppose the Canterbury Tales –which smart students know are rich in forbidden content– are next up on the chopping block.

• There are ways that students can read these works in their entirety, district officials said. If a student can obtain a copy of one of the books or plays, perhaps with the help of their parents, they can do so.

• But teachers are advised, during class lessons, to stay with the approved guidelines, which call for excerpts. If not, in extreme circumstances, they might have to defend themselves against a parent complaint or a disciplinary case at their school.

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Fascists Waste Gas, Fail to Disrupt  Drag Story Hour in San Diego via local journo Joe Orellana in  Left Coast Right Watch -

• On August 5th, numerous fascist groups descended upon the New Children’s Museum in San Diego in an attempt to shut down a drag queen story hour. Defenders rallied in opposition to the fascists, and the story hour was a success. 

• Fascists from all over Southern California made the trip to yell hate speech at children and their defenders, consistent with the California right-wing’s pattern of behavior over the last year. Despite this event occurring at a museum, numerous signs referenced public schools and locker rooms.

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Teen said he was ‘going hobo hunting’ before shooting death of homeless woman in Serra Mesa, prosecutor says Via the Union -Tribune. Gosh, I wonder where they got the idea the woman was less than human? 

• Egiazarian said Pershal was struck in her head, torso and leg. She suffered blood clotting that led to a stroke and died three days later.

• During the investigation, police served a search warrant at Innes’ home, where they found the pellet rifle used in the shooting, Egiazarian said.

• Detectives also learned that Innes and Hopkins — who Egiazarian described as friends — are part of a “street takeover crew” that performs dangerous car stunts at intersections, the prosecutor said.

• Pershal was known in Serra Mesa. Employees at businesses in the area said she slept behind shops and in doorways.

• “She didn’t bother anybody,” a Lavish Smokeshop employee told the Union-Tribune last week.