An Era of Empires, Maybe
Will Democracies Survive This Darkness?
Now it’s official, as far as foreign policy is concerned. There’s a new sheriff on the world stage and he ain’t playing the kumbaya game anymore.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, according to the view from the White House, is going to be resolved whether the government of that country likes it or not.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused an offer from the U.S. laying claim to half of the country’s mineral resources including graphite, lithium and uranium in exchange for… something unclear.
Via the New York Times:
A Ukrainian official and an energy expert briefed on the proposal said that the Trump administration sought not only Ukraine’s minerals but additional natural resources, including oil and gas. The proposal, they said, would entitle the United States to half of Ukraine’s resource earnings — funds that are today mostly invested in the country’s military and defense production.
Mr. Zelensky, who has shown openness to leveraging Ukraine’s mineral resources in negotiations with allies, said he rejected the deal because it did not tie resource access to U.S. security guarantees for Kyiv in its fight against Russia.
Peace talks that aren’t really peace talks. Top diplomats from the United States and Russia are meeting in Saudi Arabia this week. Not invited are Ukraine or any other European country. We’re told the talks will cover improving ties between the superpowers and negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine.
You can be sure legacy media outlets will refer to this meet-up as “peace talks.” The United States and Russia are not slinging ordinance at each other, so what really is at stake will be removal of sanctions.
The U.S. side has made it clear that it wants a deal done, and quickly, preferably by Easter. To speed up the process, broad hints have been dropped by U.S. officials about concessions available including allowing Russian troops to remain in conquered areas, and excluding Ukraine from NATO membership.
Russia desperately needs relief, as its economy appears to be on the precipice of disaster. The talks in Saudi Arabia are meant to pave the way for a meeting between the U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin. Nothing good can come of that.
At the Munich Security Conference the United States announced a pronounced shift away from its alliances with European democracies. Diplomats from European countries were stunned, not only by the changes in policy, but by American actions amounting to interference with internal politics (Germany) and a seeming embrace of authoritarian governance.
A hurried conference in Paris by leaders of Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and the European Union was called for Monday. French officials told the Associated Press no firm announcements were expected beyond the show of unity from European leaders.
French President Emmanuel Macron had a phone call with Donald Trump just prior to the gathering at the Elysee Palace. The British have announced a willingness to commit troops as part of a peacekeeping mission. And, most importantly, President Zelenskyy has made it clear that his country will not accept a settlement coming out of the talks between Putin and Trump.
The broader implications of this move by President Trump signal the notion that larger powers can annex smaller/weaker countries. How far that goes in Europe is anybody’s guess, though President Putin has made clear his intentions to restore the boundaries of the former Soviet Union.
Vice President Vance and the Trump administration are being supported by billionaire Elon Musk with this diplomacy aimed at the rejection of democracy in favor of far-right authoritarianism. NBC News reports Musk has “encouraged right-wing political movements, policies and administrations in at least 18 countries in a global push to slash immigration and curtail regulation of business.”
The Associate President / Billionaire-in-Chief wrote an op-ed in favor of the far right AfD party along with a video appearance at an AfD rally, saying it was “the best hope for Germany.” The NBC reporting identified Musk’s support of far-right movements in Brazil, Ireland, Argentina, Italy, New Zealand, South Africa, the Netherlands, and other countries.
French president Emmanuel Macron has accused Musk of backing a global reactionary movement and of intervening directly in elections, including Germany’s.
Of course, this soon-to-be “suggested” cessation of hostilities with Ukraine fits in with Trumpian dreams of expanding the United States to include Canada and Greenland. These notions would have been unimaginable a few months ago, but now they are being talked about as feasible.
There is no proof beyond MAGA propaganda that such expansions being desirable that the U.S. will actually roll out the economic sanctions promised against Canada and Denmark. Like all bullies, Donald Trump will back down (with copious excuses) when stood up to.
“There is now total clarity, no matter how unimaginable things might seem. And they amount to this: The U.S. government has been taken over by a clique of extremists who have embarked on a process of regime change in the world’s oldest democracy…. The arrogance on display is staggering. They think their actions will increase U.S. power, but they are in fact wrecking their own country and, in the process, everyone else.”
“The only hope lies in the sheer enormity of the threat: it might awake us out of our slumber before it is too late.”--Political scientist Stathis Kalyvas via Heather Cox Richardson
DON”T MISS THE NEWS: I’m doing a separate post today, should be later this morning.
