Assessing the 2020 San Diego Primary Election Results
The rise of the Democratic party in San Diego has been more of a rising blue tide than the “wave” descriptor often used to describe it’s victories. What that means in practical terms for many contests in the area is that second place and/or total partisan vote counts are a relevant yardstick.
Today I’ll look at an assortment of local election results, and conclude with a few observations about the presidential primary. All this analysis comes with the caveat that there are hundreds of thousands of votes left to be recorded in San Diego and millions statewide.
Two Congressional races are getting some national attention, namely the contests for convicted GOP felon Duncan Hunter (the 50th) and retiring Democrat Susan Davis (the 53rd).
In the 50th Congressional District, Ammar Campa-Najjar took the top position with roughly 35% of the vote; add in the ballots cast for Marisa Calderon (who dropped out and endorsed Campa-Najjar) and it’s looking like Democrats picked up 40% of the vote in a very red district.
Roughly three thousand votes separate Republicans Darrel Issa and Carl Demaio in their quest for second place on the November ballot. Both candidates are highly polarizing, even among members of their own party, and neither actually live in the district.
The Democratic party’s opportunity for this seat in the general election lies in the hope that Republican voters will either skip voting in this contest or will actually cross party lines driven by their dislike of their party’s candidate.
Regardless of which Republican makes the ballot, you can expect a get-out-the-hate campaign directed at Campa-Najjar, who, in addition to being a Democrat, also bears the burden of being in two of the “other” categories--Latinx and Palestinian.
Issa and DeMaio have one thing in common; both have built their political careers based on fear and loathing.
The 53rd Congressional District contest has attracted some lefty media looking to fit it into the billionaires versus Berniecrats slot. Sarah Jacobs and Georgette Gomez did make it to the November ballot via vastly different paths.
Jacobs used her family’s wealth to buy lots of ads, Bloomberg-style. Gomez, who started out in politics as an outsider, had the backing of most of the Democratic party establishment.
I suspect the Qualcomm heiress will have a Bloomberg/Steyer type experience going into the fall election, learning that money can only buy so many votes. Gomez, who’s built up a solid record during her tenure on the city council, will use the potent combination of grassroots support based on years of environmental activism and establishment know-how to win the office by a substantial margin.
Here’s the deal. The ideological differences between the two are few and far between. Jacobs has plans, almost Elizabeth Warren-style. Gomez has a track record of getting stuff done in a sometimes hostile environment.
Over in the 52nd Congressional District, Nancy Cassady’s candidacy (driven by a critique of incumbent Scott Peter’s environmental record) managed to split the Democratic vote, peeling off 13.38% of the total.
Republican Jim Debello grabbed the number two spot for November, collecting roughly 36% of ballots cast. The former tech executive’s tight-wire act on climate change, placing him somewhere in between scientific orthodoxy and GOP denial, should provide an ample target for Peters’ flavor of environmentalism.
More to the point, if you add together the total number of votes for Democrats in the race it’s not hard to picture a landslide victory for Scott Peters in the fall.
San Diego's other Congressional Democrats, Mike Levin in the 49th and Juan Vargas in the 51st District, won their primary contests with twelve and thirty point leads respectively. Thanks to California’s top-two system, they’ll face off against the same Republican challengers in November.
Vargas, by the way, was quoted in a POLITICO story on House Democrats reactions to the presidential primary:
"I was certainly glad to see Bernie crash and burn. Bernie was much weaker everywhere than what people said."
In local Assembly contests, Republican incumbents Randy Voepel (71st) and Marie Waldron (75th) won handily. Democratic incumbents Tasha Boerner Horvath (76th), Brian Maienschein (76th), Shirley Weber (79th), and Lorena Gonzalez (80th) all trounced GOP opponents. All these contests will be re-run in the fall.
One passing note on Gonzalez’ capturing more than 68% of the vote against two Republican opponents: Her championing of protections for gig workers (AB5), led to lots of bluster (and some really insulting tweets) about how she was going to lose votes and maybe even her seat.
This margin of victory offers up proof that online talk is cheap, even when GOP blowhards are amplifying it. Frankly, it’s also just plain stupid to be personally hostile to a legislator offering up compromises to round out a landmark piece of legislation.
The 78th Assembly seat was open, thanks to Todd Gloria’s run for Mayor. Anointed successor Democratic Councilman Chris Ward will face fellow Democrat Sarah Davis again in the fall. Given that Ward won with 57% of the vote, it will take something big and unexpected to see a different general election outcome.
State Senator Toni Atkins was opposed only by late declaring write-in candidate. She’ll get to repeat this cake walk in November.
Three County Board of Supervisors’ seats were on the primary ballot.
In District One, Democratic State Senator Ben Hueso’s name recognition was enough to win first place. The battle for second place between Democrats Rafa Castellenos and Nora Vargas is too close to call at this point. Regardless, this GOP held seat will be flipping in November.
In District Two, Republican State Senator Joel Anderson will face Republican Poway Mayor Steve Vaus in November. Democratic first time candidate Kenya Taylor came in third place, meaning this is one seat that will remain in GOP hands come November.
District Three incumbent Republican Trumpette Kristin Gaspar faced off against Democrats Terra Lawson-Remer and Olga Diaz. At this point, it appears as though Lawson-Remer will be on the November ballot.
What’s important here is that incumbent Gaspar failed to win over half the primary votes cast. Democrats believe they’ll flip this seat in the fall to give their party a majority on the Board of Supervisors. It’s safe to say Republicans will stay on brand and will throw a kitchen sink full of scare words into the fall fray.
The contest for San Diego Mayor will be between Democratic Assemblyman Todd Gloria and Republican Councilman Scott Sherman. Democratic Councilwoman Barbara Bry, whose campaign took a hard turn toward NIMBYism, failed to make the cut.
Sherman is the one local serious Republican running who, although ideologically committed to his party, is less likely to fling poo than the rest of his kind. Given the nature of the electorate in San Diego this contest is, as it has been from the start, Todd Gloria’s to lose.
In the primary race for City Attorney, incumbent Democrat Mara Elliott easily came in first. Activist Democratic Attorney Cory Briggs will repeat his outsider act come November. Elliott may have won this election, but her future job description is in question. The City Council is considering a charter amendment that would leave her as a prosecutor and outsource legal representation in civil matters.
If this goes through, Briggs will have won the war, even if Elliott is re-elected. A major point of his campaign is dissatisfaction with the representation the city’s electeds are getting from the current arrangement.
The five odd-numbered City Council Districts were on the March ballot. One, Three, and Nine are currently represented by Democrats, who are eager to extend their super majority by flipping either or both Five and Seven. There are no council incumbents on the ballot.
While Democratic activist Joe LaCava easily took first place in District One, his fall opponent is yet to be determined. Less than two hundred votes separate firefighter Aaron Brennan and attorney Will Moore. Both are Democrats, as is incumbent and former mayoral candidate Barbara Bry.
District Three’s seat was open, thanks to Chris Ward’s run for Assembly. Democrat Stephen Whitburn easily took first place, but once again the contest between two other Democrats for a spot on the November ballot is too close to call. Presently, less than five hundred votes is the gap between Toni Duran and Chris Olsen.
Republican Joe Leventhal will face Democrat Marni Wilpert in District Five. Termed out incumbent Mark Kersey left the GOP earlier this year. Democratic candidates collected over 60% of the total primary vote, improving the odd for their party winning this seat in the general election.
In District Seven, Democrat Raul Campillo came in first with 35% of the vote and will face Republican Noli Zosa. Termed out Republican incumbent Scott Sherman is his party’s candidate for mayor. Once again, prospects for the GOP look bleak, given that Democrats took nearly 70% of the total primary vote.
Traditionally Democratic District Nine, to be vacated thanks to Georgette Gomez’ run for congress will see Kelvin Barrios against Sean Elo. This Dem-on-Dem contest promises to be interesting as Barrios has the advantage of having worked for Gomez. Sean Elo, on the other hand, is a proven campaigner who surprised local observers by winning over former Councilman David Alvarez in a contest for the San Diego Community College Board of Trustees.
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I’ll get around to pondering the fate of local ballot measures in a future column. Suffice it to say voters said they didn’t want ballot box planning, unwelcome sprawl, and a three-for-one deal raising the hotel tax. Oh, and the number 13 needs to be retired from those available for state ballot propositions.
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https://twitter.com/WarrenDemocrat/status/1235629902646464512?s=20
The Democratic presidential primary contest is down to two serious contenders, former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders.
The conventional thinking, based on polling, is that a small majority (60%ish) of Warren supporters will support Biden, with most of the remaining backers joining the Sanders camp.
While Warren’s proposals had much more in common than those of Sanders than Biden, the testosterone-fueled toxicity of some of the Vermont Senator’s supporters alienated many. And, yes, this is a real thing, particularly if you were a woman.
And here’s the clincher: many Democrats believe Biden may be a better vehicle for accomplishing a progressive agenda.
From the New York Times politics newsletter:
Notably, most Democratic voters in state after state indicated that they agreed with some of Sanders’s key policies, like free public college tuition and a “Medicare for all”-type health care system. And in many states, voters were more likely to say they wanted a candidate who would bring about needed change than one who could unite the country — which would seem to line up more with Sanders’s insurgent campaign than with Biden’s message of unity
But it was Biden’s commanding margins among those who wanted unity that often helped lift him to victory
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Remember, wash your hands like you just sliced up a bunch of hot peppers and need to take out your contact lenses.
https://twitter.com/MobBossTrump/status/1235554992674803713?s=20
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