Biden Surges, Bernie Sustains, Warren and Bloomberg Play the Long Game
Just-released polls show Biden gaining ground rapidly on Sen. Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner to this point, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren or former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg are likely to hit the 15% viability threshold to win delegates in many states.
By Laura Clawson / Daily Kos
Fourteen states are voting and about a third of delegates are at stake today in the Democratic presidential primary, a primary that has dramatically reconfigured in recent days, with former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropping out and endorsing former Vice President Joe Biden. Just-released polls show Biden gaining ground rapidly on Sen. Bernie Sanders, the frontrunner to this point, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren or former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg are likely to hit the 15% viability threshold to win delegates in many states.
That means that the race has gone from a likely scenario of Sanders winning a nearly insurmountable—if not majority—lead on Super Tuesday to it being plausible that Biden will come out with a delegate lead while both Warren and Bloomberg have chunks of delegates.
California, with 415 delegates
Texas, with 228
North Carolina, with 110
Virginia, with 99
Massachusetts, with 91
Minnesota, with 75
Colorado, with 67
Tennessee, with 64
Alabama, with 52
Oklahoma, with 37
Arkansas, with 31
Utah, with 29
Maine, with 24
Vermont, with 16
Democrats abroad, with 13
American Samoa, with 6
The more people who cross the 15% viability threshold in each state, the fewer delegates the state’s winner gets. So if, for instance, Sanders wins big in California and only one other person crosses 15%, he could come away with a large majority of those 415 delegates. But if two other people get 15% or more, it would be less of a delegate boost. And that’s just what final polls from Data for Progress show: In California, they put Sanders at 32%, Biden at 25%, Bloomberg at 17%, and Warren at 16%.
The polls similarly show four people with 15% or greater in Texas, Virginia, Massachusetts, Colorado, Tennessee, Minnesota, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Maine, and Utah. And three people might hit 15% in most other states. If these polls turn out to be accurate, this race will definitely not be over after Super Tuesday.
According to Data for Progress, Sanders leads in California, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, Utah, and Vermont. Biden leads in Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. Warren leads in Massachusetts. By the end of the evening, we’ll be getting an idea of how the voting actually went—though in some cases, particularly California, it will be days before we have final results.