Bombing Iran for the Oligarchy
BadaBing! BadaBoom! “We won” declared Dear Leader
Professor Timothy Snyder, whose writings have provided great insight on the process of transitioning to and existing in an authoritarian state, made five salient points on Saturday as news of the bombing of Iran broke. I’m going to scatter them through this essay at the breaks and hopefully drive home the truth of what he says….
As Donald Rumsfeld once said: “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know.”
For thirty years, the man who is now prime minister of Israel has been sounding the alarm about the possibility of Iran creating nuclear weapons. (You can watch The Daily Show’s video compilation of Netanyahu speeches here.)
In recent days he’s been sounding the alarm about Iran’s weaponization process, dormant since 2003, claiming that it had been restarted. His country’s intelligence forces have demonstrated an ability to maintain human sources in an extreme environment but…. all those years of playing ‘chicken little’ have diminished Netanyahu’s credibility.
Whatever. The Israeli prime minister’s words were good enough for President Donald Trump. That, and the breathless propaganda from Fox News as reported in the New York Times:
When he woke on Friday morning, his favorite TV channel, Fox News, was broadcasting wall-to-wall imagery of what it was portraying as Israel’s military genius. And Mr. Trump could not resist claiming some credit for himself.
BadaBing! BadaBoom! “We won” declared Dear Leader, knowing that such a declaration would tamp down concern about process among the MAGA faithful.
This worked so well on Capitol Hill that one Congressman blamed the left for the lack of inclusion in authorizing the bombing.
…Representative Ronny Jackson (R-TX) told Maria Bartiromo of the Fox News Channel that Trump did not have to notify Congress because “[w]e do not have trustworthy people in Congress especially on the left side of the aisle.” If you give information to Democrats and those Republicans who oppose the president, he said, “you might as well put the [ayatollah] on the phone as well.” There is no basis for this statement.
Ooops. News reports began to question the success of the bombing run, i.e., there’s evidence that the bombed sites were evacuated last week, and nobody outside of Iran knows what happened to 400kg of 60% enriched uranium –enough to build nine or ten bombs– reported to have been created.
Iran is claiming that the targeted sites have been empty for months, its enriched nuclear stockpiles long since relocated. It’s not like the Iranians were clueless about the places likely to be targeted.
Hence the name of the game changes from deterrence to regime change.
Side Note: This next step is a testament to the President’s lack of knowledge, given the (lack of) success rate the US has had in Middle East politics in the past.
According to the New York Times, the intelligence community believed "Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward producing a bomb if the American military attacked the Iranian uranium enrichment site Fordo."). The Defense Department also had previously assessed that attacking that site would require both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons.
#1 Many things reported with confidence in the first hours and days will turn out not to be true. -Timothy Snyder
I would suspect that everything we think we know was manufactured by entities who don’t want us to know. Don’t trust anything but the history indicating this attack on Iran was strategically stupid.
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If the President hoped to get a rally around the flag effect to boost his woeful poll numbers, he’s likely to be disappointed. Still, there’s a need to distract.
His Bogus Budget Bill for Billionaires will come before the Senate this week and, between the parliamentarian’s objections and the priorities of the elder statesmen in that body, another House vote will be necessary. Unless, of course, Trump says it’s not necessary.
The administration’s made-for-making-people-afraid attempts at immigration enforcement have provoked a backlash with communities impacted, unfavorable court rulings, and high profile individuals caught up in government agents’ unsavory efforts.
A domestic threat of Iranian acts of revenge through underground terror cells, quietly conveyed in the last round of treaty talks, has brought attention to the deconstruction of the federal effort to combat domestic terrorism.
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy has called out Trump for appointing 22-year-old Thomas Fugate to a role at the Department of Homeland Security overseeing the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships, the entity tasked with terrorism prevention. Fugate’s recent experience includes positions in landscaping and grocery stores. He has zero law enforcement experience.
The Department of Homeland Security has issued a rare National Terrorism Advisory, warning that Iran or its proxy groups may attempt to carry out attacks on U.S. soil.’’
#2 - Whatever they say, the people who start wars are often thinking chiefly about domestic politics –Timothy Snyder
For a few hours, the “one and done” narrative flowed from the administration’s supporters.
Rubio on CBS: "This wasn't a regime change move."
Vance on ABC: "Well, first of all, we don't want to achieve regime change."
Vance on NBC: "our view has been very clear that we don't want a regime change."
Hegseth at Pentagon press conference: "This mission was not, and has not been, about regime change."
Trump, not waiting even 24 hours to undercut and humiliate them:
#3 - The rationale given for a war will change over time, such that actual success or failure in achieving a named objective is less relevant than one might think - Timothy Snyder
As I write this, there is an expectation among our national macho men that Iran will respond to the bombing in some fashion. On Sunday night, Iran unleashed a barrage of missiles aimed at Israel, which responded with aerial attacks on Iranian military facilities. It’s reasonable to expect that this senseless back and forth will continue. Iran state media has proclaimed: 'every American citizen or military personnel in the region is now a target'.
Dmitry Medvedev, the mercurial former Russian leader, claims Trump's strikes on Iran's nuclear sites have backfired, with nations now poised to arm Iran with nukes. I’d take that claim with a grain of salt.
Wall Street seems unfazed by the threat of a wider war, for the moment. Stocks were trading higher on Monday morning and the price of crude oil was only moderately higher.
The Iranian foreign minister met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he said Iran will coordinate its response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes.
NBC’s Richard Engle reports
Comments from Iranian officials, including Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, seem to suggest that Iran is preparing for a long war.
And it seems that Israel also wants a long and drawn out conflict. While they say that they don’t want regime change, every day they’re killing top Iranian commanders and threatening Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So don’t be fooled — they’re talking about exactly that.
No one seems to be talking about an off ramp. It doesn’t seem like either side has that in mind.
My viewpoint is that Iran will, for now, show restraint in retaliation, hoping that international and US domestic reaction will damage Trump’s standing. They will send missiles to relatively close in targets, because they need to for domestic purposes.
As to closing the Strait of Hormuz, why waste the munitions, when oil containers are already making U-turns rather than entering the 21 mile wide corridor?
However, I won’t be surprised if Iran’s real response is to go underground with its existing material and race to produce a weapon or two as a deterrent against further hostile action—and a threat against the entire region.
#4 Wars are unpredictable - Timothy Snyder
It’s possible that all that ordinance and jet fuel consumed by the US raids was a performative drama. Despite initial statements saying we’re not at war with Iran, I’m pretty sure if someone sent B-2 bombers and dropped 14 bunker buster bombs on the United States, we'd call it "war."
Domestic opposition among elected officials has focused on the (lack of) process in taking the action, with Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez saying it is an impeachable offense.
She’s right, but that train has already left the station, not with just this Congress.
Several U.S. presidents have authorized air strikes without congressional approval, including:
1. Harry S. Truman (Korea, 1950)
2. Richard Nixon (Cambodia, 1969-1970)
3. Ronald Reagan (Libya, 1986)
4. George H.W. Bush (Panama, 1989)
5. Bill Clinton (Kosovo, 1999)
6. Barack Obama (Libya, 2011)
7. Donald Trump (Syria, 2017)
8. Joe Biden (Yemen, 2024)
To be fair, in most instances the appropriate Congressional entities were informed in advance. And some strikes were made in the wake of U.N. resolutions.
Iranian sources now say the Fordow site, built to withstand nuclear war, is intact. If true, this was a narrative operation, aimed at markets, voters, and momentum. And that physics of Fordow didn’t bend to spin.
#5 - Wars are easy to start and hard to stop - Timothy Snyder
In history, military success doesn’t always translate to political success. The Iran strike was not a reflection of national deliberation or national interest. It was the impulse of one man.
“The U.S. faces enormous problems here at home, which we must address. We cannot allow ourselves to be dragged into another Middle East war based on lies.” –Senator Bernie Sanders
Yes, the resistance can and should do more than one thing at a time. Being anti-war and showing it is an important message.
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The Iranian Voices Missing From the “Regime Change” Debate by Adrienne Mahsa Varkiani at The New Republic
The Iranian people are trapped, between the bombs that could kill them at any moment and a regime that never cared much for their lives to begin with. As of this writing, the Islamic Republic has shut off virtually the entire internet for more than 48 hours, cutting Iranians off from much-needed news about what is happening in their country as war escalates. And yet, even if those bombs somehow eliminate the regime, it’s clear that the Beltway elite has no idea what the human toll will be—or what comes next.
This war is not about picking sides. There is no one to root for here. There is no rooting for Israel or its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who sickly advocated for regime change in Iran using the chant “Woman, Life, Freedom,” despite being responsible for the deaths of more than 28,000 women and girls during the genocide in Gaza these past 20 months. There is no rooting for Donald Trump, who certainly does not care about Iranian lives as he amasses power for himself while bulldozing over virtually every marginalized group in the country. And there is no rooting for the Islamic Republic, which has killed Iranians it simply disagrees with for more than 46 years.
None of those leaders are listening to the Iranian people, who are begging for the bombing to stop.
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MAGA Will Devastate Rural America by Paul Krugman
The first thing you need to understand is that while rural Americans like to think of themselves as self-reliant, the fact is that poorer, more rural states are in effect heavily subsidized by richer states like Massachusetts and New Jersey.
This reality makes it inevitable that the standard conservative fiscal agenda — tax cuts for the rich, benefit cuts for the poor and middle class — hurts the heartland more than it hurts major metropolitan areas. But MAGA’s Reverse Robin Hoodism goes far beyond the standard conservative agenda, in ways that will be especially devastating to rural areas and small towns.
First, consider the shape of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. (I think it’s important to call it by its ludicrous official name, as a reminder of the extent to which Republican members of Congress have become North Korea-style sycophants.) The final details haven’t been settled, and there’s still an outside chance that the whole thing falls apart. But it’s almost certain that there will be savage cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, programs that disproportionately help Trump-supporting rural areas.
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Inside the Scrappy Network of Volunteers Protecting Their Neighbors From ICE by Julia Lurie at Mother Jones
Waltham, a city of 66,000 a half-hour from Boston, has historically opened its arms to immigrants. A quarter of the population is foreign-born, and a fifth is Latino. A short stretch of a main drag called Moody Street features restaurants with cuisines from a dozen countries.
But lately, Paz says, it feels like his city is under siege. When I joined him on a neighborhood patrol last month, he kept an eye out for the license plates of ICE agents and flagged recent landmarks. “We had someone arrested today, I think, down the street that way,” he said, pointing down a residential block. We walked by the spot where the 13-year-old was left standing on the sidewalk and the place where, a few days after that, a high school girl recorded officers smashing a van window to arrest a driver as she waited for the school bus.
He nodded to a sedan parked outside a warehouse. “You start picking up on the fact that there are abandoned vehicles because people had a loved one taken,” he says.
Excellent essay, Doug. Thanks.