California Proposition 36: A Feel Good Measure for Fear Mongers
Blue Lives Matter in the Wars on Drugs and Homelessness
There’s always a backstory with citizen-led ballot initiatives.
Sometimes it’s a rich guy living out his white Jesus fantasies (Prop 32). Sometimes it’s a wealthy non-profit seeking to expand their sphere of influence. (sorta Prop 33) Sometimes interest groups seek to enlist the public in getting the government to take actions against their enemies (Prop 34). Sometimes interest groups seek to protect their (not necessarily bad) causes by getting the public to endorse funding mandates (like Prop 35).
–To be clear, all of the above-mentioned measures have a more nuanced backstory; my point is that initiatives are more complex than their bumper sticker slogans.
Sometimes, it’s all=of=the-above and more, as in Proposition 36.
To understand why we’re being asked to take a step backwards from criminal justice reform, a little history is in order.
Society’s War on Drugs reached a crossroads after the turn of the century; the costs of incarceration were threatening to overwhelm state and local budgets. In California, the Supreme Court ruled that prison overcrowding amounted to cruel and unusual punishment and mandated the state to do something to stop it.
Evidence was accumulating on the collateral damage caused by excessive incarceration, and, most importantly, the drug problem didn’t seem to be going away.
So California voters approved the Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act (Proposition 47) in 2014, which reduced some criminal penalties and enabled the release of thousands of prisoners.
Even after all this correctional downsizing, the United States imprisons more of its citizens per capita than almost every other country. The funny-not funny-thing about all this USA!, USA! jailing is that its impact on crime isn’t proved. There’s even one study suggesting that higher incarceration rates above a certain level actually increase crime.
In the decade since Prop 47 passed, there has been a constant refrain from law enforcement quarters about how loosening the system was bad for society.
Protests over police brutality have led to less pride in their professions, and what commands deemed as interference in their internal affairs through attempts at oversight have posed challenges toward tradition.
Study after study shows that law enforcement personnel act on prejudices, making life more challenging for people of color than the simple microaggressions they encounter in daily life. San Diego’s study showed that police stopped Black residents more often with suspicions of drug possession and found fewer drugs.
The response to these sorts of criticisms has typically come in the form of promises to reform, nitpicking over details, and resistance to any objective measure of results. Pain to their collective psyche is real to study law enforcement subjects, as is anger at the lack of respect encountered in daily life.
A very real consequence of this lack of societal standing is the difficulty encountered by police departments in recruitment. Experienced personnel are leaving, tempted by ever-more-tempting offers from better-funded agencies. Fewer young people see a career in the criminal justice system as rewarding in the face of hardships reportedly encountered in everyday policing.
In a perfect world law enforcement might have realized these feelings of insecurity were not that different from other groups in society that find themselves marginalized. Instead, they saw themselves as victims whose plight could surely be resolved by revenge.
Proposition 36 is part of that revenge, based on the premise that the public will buy into narratives about increasing crime and suspicions of homeless humans. And, of course, drugs are a key part of this sales pitch.
Backers of the measure are running ads on social media claiming to make a connection between Prop 47 and increasing homelessness. They’re even saying the numbers of unhoused people are declining in other states – if they’re willing to lie about this, you have to wonder about the rest of their spiel.
Crime is down. Homelessness is up. And not just in California. And there’s been no reported reduction on the demand side for illegal drugs. Users may be aware of criminal penalties, but there’s little evidence that it has a deterrent effect.
All the foolishness about getting addicts into treatment is posturing to make Prop 36 supporters look less heartless; they know full well that increased treatment facilities on any scale don’t exist. There aren’t enough medical personnel or counselors.
Studies show involuntary treatments for substance use disorders are less effective and potentially more harmful than voluntary treatment, and involuntary centers often serve as venues for abuse.
Commodification of the criminal justice system has warped its processes and intentions. Corporations and correcting bad behavior are antithetical. There are employee and employer associations willing to spend significant sums of money to drum up business. Correctional officers are backing more severe sentences, and lacking interest in the community institutions that might divert antisocial and criminal activity.
The fact is that Proposition 47 has delivered on a substantial amount of its promised results.
Here are reformers Branden C. Sigua and Geneviéve Jones-Wright. writing at Voice of San Diego on those results:
A grant evaluation released in 2024 found that in addition to significantly reducing racial disparities across the criminal legal system, recidivism rates for people enrolled in Proposition 47 grant-funded services were “more than two times lower than those traditionally incarcerated by the California Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections.” The grant evaluation also found that for people who completed the program, homelessness fell 60 percent, and unemployment dropped50 percent.
“These results continue to indicate that Proposition 47 is delivering the results voters demanded — safer communities where individuals who commit low-level crimes are directed to housing, employment, mental health and substance use services instead of prison sentences,” said the State and Community Corrections Board Chair Linda Penner. “California should continue to build on this progress — investing in efforts that are effective in both reducing incarceration and improving public safety.”
Calls for increased criminalization largely stem from the fabricated “shoplifting crisis” narrative perpetuated by Mayor Gloria and other Proposition 47 detractors. In reality, numerous reports have debunked claims of rising retail crime. Property crime, including burglary and robbery, is down 18 percent in the City of San Diego compared to a three-year average. Shoplifting rates in San Diego County have decreased by 21 percent from 2019 to 2022. To undo Proposition 47’s regional and statewide progress based on false narratives would be knowingly irresponsible and harmful.
Another part of law enforcement’s revenge strategy has to do with a thing that didn’t happen –except in anecdotes, Trumpian speeches, and social media gadfly ramblings–, the supposed defunding of police. This is a biggie, and mixed in with claims of communities ravaged by Black Lives Matter protesters, appeals to cops sense of victimhood with a layer of racism tossed in for scared white people.
The word “defunding” has rarely described what’s happened with police department budgets. But it’s used as a back room bludgeon in negotiations with politicians, who fear public relations campaigns accusing them of being soft on crime.
Here’s a snip from a report at the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice:
California is not “defunding the police” nor implementing lenient criminal justice reforms – just the opposite. State spending on law enforcement has risen sharply, even after adjustments for inflation and population growth. The odds of being imprisoned per arrest have risen to near-record heights. However, despite record spending on California law enforcement agencies in recent years, one of the core measures of law enforcement effectiveness— crime clearance rates — has fallen to historically low levels. An agency’s clearance rate is the share of Part I violent and property crimes that are considered solved after law enforcement makes an arrest. Over the past three decades, these clearance rates fell by 41%, from a 22.3% clearance rate in 1990 to 13.2% in 2022, which equates to fewer than one in seven crimes solved. California’s decline in overall clearance rates has been driven by falling property felony clearances (-59%), though the solve rate for violent felonies also fell during the 1990 – 2022 period (-14%).
This steep decline in crime-solving has occurred despite ballooning law enforcement budgets. From 1990 to 2022, Californians’ per-capita spending on law enforcement rose by 52% in constant, inflation-adjusted dollars to a total of roughly $25.5 billion.
California’s police are hardly being “defunded;” rather, they are receiving record high per-capita funding.
Here’s a snip from a City of San Diego 2021 analysis of the police budget:
The Police Department’s General Fund Budget has grown consistently over the last decade from a low point of $384.9 million in FY 2011 to the current budget of $568.2 million for FY 2021; an overall increase of 47.6% over this period. FY 2011 represented the lowest budgeted level following the Great Recession as the Department experienced significant reductions in budgeted staffing beginning in FY 2010 in order to address ongoing General Fund budget deficits. In total, 344.75 FTEs were reduced between FY 2010 through FY 2012.
Following this timeframe, among the primary factors driving the increases to the Police Department’s budget were the implementation of the Department’s Five-Year Plan and the approval of new labor agreements for sworn officers. These topics are discussed further below. As reflected in Figure A, budget increases over this period were primarily for Personnel Expenditures, while Non-Personnel Expenditures remained comparatively flat.
Overall, the Police Department’s General Fund Budget as a percent of the total General Fund remained relatively constant at approximately 32-35%.
Another supposed reason for Prop 36 is that it’s a solution for homelessness. I’d be willing to bet on a per capita basis that throwing unhoused people in pokey is already a leading ”solution” for homelessness. It’s well-documented that homelessness is more likely after incarceration.
The solution for homelessness is social housing, available for a majority of wage earners. Even subsidizing housing for law enforcement helps. Our powers-that-be would rather throw money away jailing people than commit to an end run around commercial developers.
Finally, there’s the Great Shoplifting Hoax. “Everybody knows” about the heists in San Francisco when thieves brazenly walked out the door with oodles of merchandise.
A couple of years back, claims that shoplifting in California was “de facto legal” were perpetuated by right wing hacks and a few reporters not allowed to do more than read press releases.
Here’s an example, via the Hoover Institution:
Google “Shoplifting in San Francisco” and you will find more than 100,000 hits. And you will find lots of YouTube videos, where you can watch a single thief, or an entire gang, walk into an SF Walgreens or CVS and empty the shelves.
The incentive for all this shoplifting is supposedly that Prop 47 increased to the threshold for felonious five finger discounts to $950. I wonder how the other 29 states with limits higher than California’s are dealing with the problem.
Fear mongers on the right have benefited from fuzzy definitions of shoplifting crime, making objective analysis difficult. What gets repeated often are anecdotal accounts of stores closing because of reported thefts; except we find out later that’s not the truth.
The most commonly quoted surveys coming from the National Retail Federation are from 2021 and 2022 when the surveys had just 41 and 63 respondents respectively. And that group ended up retracting a claim that organized retail theft was responsible for nearly half the $94.5 billion in store merchandise that disappeared in 2021.
What I do know is that much of the supposed evidence about the impact of shoplifting has been either disproved or retracted.
From the Brennan Center for Justice:
City-level data collected by the Council on Criminal Justice also undercuts the idea of a national surge in the specific crime of shoplifting. In a November 2023 report, the council found that the average shoplifting rate across a group of 24 cities had declined over the past few years, dropping from around 45 to 40 offenses per 100,000 people in the period between January 2019 and June 2023. At the same time, the council’s data showed significant spikes in some cities…
…Contrary to media accounts, reported incidents declined over the same period in San Francisco (down 5 percent), even accounting for a large spike in 2021.
Shoplifting happens, and there are organized criminal groups sending in “shoppers” to fulfill online orders at fraudulent web sites. Crime wave? I don’t think so.
Of course, shoppers “see” the evidence of shoplifting every time they shop, with locked plexiglass cabinets protecting the generic Advil at Target. This practice hasn’t paid for itself, as the deterrent effect of waiting for an overworked employee to show up with a key, doesn’t match up with consumers like myself, who simply order from Amazon. But the plexiglass does wonders for retailers looking to blame anybody but themselves for declining foot traffic.
Retail chains are in trouble generally, and have been for years. Changing customer tastes versus static inventories, and reduced staffing driven by the need for private equity firms to suck every last penny out of their purchases have diminished the gratification that used to come from shopping in person.
So there you have it folks. The arguments for Proposition 36 debunked.
Unfortunately, too many political careers are based on keeping people afraid, so Mayor Todd Gloria and his homies will likely get their way.
Ballot Arguments Page: https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/36/
Yes on 36
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In case I haven’t made it clear, I’m a solid NO on Prop 36. Don’t waste taxpayer dollars on restarting the war on drugs.
About the Voter Guide.
I’ve been compiling voter guides for San Diegans for over a decade on various platforms. I have a progressive point of view tempered with life experience informing me of what’s possible and what’s bullshit.
Portions of this guide will be published most weekdays throughout September. I’ll publish a comprehensive guide (with links if you care) on Monday of the week ballots are mailed out. (October 7)
The Democratic supermajority in California has given rise to some mediocre politicians. I won’t recommend Democratic candidates unless I can say I feel more than ‘meh’ about them.
I can’t recommend Republicans because they’ve chosen to ally themselves with authoritarian, anti-democratic, and theocratic forces. I won’t suggest third parties because they can’t win in today’s system –this is a guide for THIS election.
While I’d like for everybody to agree with my choices, we all know that won’t happen. As long as you actually vote, I’ll be satisfied.
Yesterday: Just Say No to CA Propositions 34 & 35
Previously
California Ballot Measures Two thru Six
California’s Proposition 32: Something’s Better Than Nothing, I Suppose
CA Proposition 33: Deja Vu All Over Again on Rent Control
Monday: City of San Diego Measures C, D, E
Check your voter registration at
https://www.sdvote.com/content/rov/en/voter-info-lookup.html
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Friday Finds in the News World
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Dingus of the week: Undecided voters by Lyz at Men Yell At Me
According to the “Chuck Todd theory of American politics” (as political scientist Rachel Bitecofer calls it), the swing voter is the crucible of every election. This is why they are fawned over and given so much air time. However, when you dig into the data, this person doesn’t actually seem to exist. And statements about their ability to swing right or left seem greatly exaggerated. And yet, there is the siren call among the pundit class to appeal to this amorphous man in the middle, while the people who actually carry the elections get run over.
If they do exist, these undecided voters are usually conservative-leaning men, data show. These are probably the same men who are on Bumble identifying as “apolitical” because at least they know that saying, “I am a conservative and will vote to take away your right to make basic healthcare choices” doesn’t usually turn women on.
They like tacos. They want to find the Pam to their Jim. They think you are being a little hysterical and look, could you please stop shouting so loudly about your rights while you are being herded in the JD Vance breeding pens? Women, amirite?
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Column: The air begins to leak out of the overinflated AI bubble by Michael Hiltzik at the Los Angeles Times.
Technology that has the potential to provide good information can also provide bad information and be misused,” he said. “A trillion dollars of investment in deepfakes would add a trillion dollars to GDP, but I don’t think most people would be happy about that or benefit from it. ... Too much optimism and hype may lead to the premature use of technologies that are not ready for prime time.”
Hype remains the defining feature of discussions of the future of AI today, most of it emanating from AI firms such as OpenAI and their corporate sponsors, including Microsoft and Google.
The vision of a world remade by this seemingly magical technology has attracted investments measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars. But if it all evaporates in a flash because the vision has proven to be cloudy, that wouldn’t be a surprise. It wouldn’t be the first time such a thing happened, and surely won’t be the last.
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Will the 2028 Olympics create lasting benefits for Los Angeles? By Jim Newton for CalMatters
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass accepted the Olympic flag in Paris last month, formally marking the beginning of the runup to the 2028 Games in LA. With that handoff comes the ultimate civic challenge: Will Los Angeles maximize the opportunities that the Olympics offer?
One important place to look is transportation. Planners have boasted about creating a “car-free” Olympics in 2028, which sounds like a tall order for a city notoriously dependent on its freeways.
That promise isn’t necessarily too firm, either. A spokesperson clarified this week that “most LA28 venues will not require spectators to drive in their cars and will be accessible by public transportation and Games-specific transportation systems.”
That’s not quite “car-free,” but it’s still an ambitious goal in the land of the car.
