California Republicans in Retreat
Today’s Union-Tribune features opinion pieces by three prominent Republicans: State GOP Chair Jessica Patterson, former State Chair Ron Nehring, and consultant Duane DiChiara offer up takes on where the party should go now that the recall election is over.
State Chair Patterson comes right out of the gate with comments indicating she’s living in an alternative reality.
Governor Gavin Newsom “survived” the recall -- he won by more than 3 million votes, winning with a larger margin than in 2018.
Californians...face the worst quality-of-life conditions in the country -- the World Population Review for 2021 places the state’s ranking at 19th.
Democratic policies have created a California crime spike.-- the national version of this claim made by the RNC has been rated False by Politifact; most of the specific policies the state GOP complains about stem from ballot propositions passed with large majorities.
Etc, etc, etc -- most of the issues raised are complex, i.e., Dems ignore need for water storage.
Touting the “success” of the party's increased staffing in the recall election, Patterson says “Republicans are ready for 2022 and will be fighting to win up and down the ticket.”
What she, and for the most part, the other Republicans talk about in terms of the state of the State are complaints, with actual policy proposals that might excite voters nowhere to be found. It’s we’re against...blah, balh, blah… In other words, the GOP is the party of “No.”
Former State Chair Ron Nehring takes on the perspective of the ever-shrinking “We’re not Trump” wing of the Republican Party without once mentioning the name of the man who has claimed the mantle of national party’s leadership.
He correctly points out the GOPs need to expand its base to include more Latino and suburban voters.
Finally, we need good candidates with a demonstrated ability to win the support of Republicans and non-Republicans alike. Our recent, painful experience with the attempted recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom demonstrated in the starkest possible terms that a Republican cannot win with just “firing up the base.” Candidates whose appeal is limited to the party’s base often end up equally firing up the Democratic base. And when you’re outnumbered by two to one, driving partisan divisions as the only strategy guarantees a loss.
Equally true, a Republican cannot win statewide without securing the support of the vast majority of Republican Party members as well. And it’s for this reason we need to have a conversation about what victory looks like.
It’s kind of sad for guys like Nehring, who can see the handwriting on the wall for a future for the GOP, when a majority of activists in the party are disconnected from reality. And I have to wonder if he missed the memo about the future of the party as an organization cheerleading for its candidates in sham elections, like those in Russia and other autocracies.
Consultant Duane DiChiara makes the argument for having candidates focus more on the policy and administrative failures of the Democratic Party “machine” in state and local governments.
Sacramento’s Democratic government is a modern Tammany Hall, with more campaign money and other resources than it could conceivably need to remain in power. It also has a formidable voter registration advantage, a mainstream media that is generally sympathetic to it , and the weapon of national partisanship.
There have been other political machines in America’s history. All wielded vast resources and appeared invulnerable. All were eventually defeated.
Machines have a couple of major vulnerabilities: With no opposition, their governments are usually wasteful, incompetent and corrupt. Sacramento’s Tammany Hall is all three, and this is where the focus of the Republican message should fall.
He --reading between the lines-- doesn’t see much hope until the atmosphere changes, which I take to be shorthand for a post-Trumpian era. He sees keeping the party’s infrastructure intact and running “good-government, aggressive Republicans…”
https://twitter.com/rxjef77/status/1449008527897501704?s=20
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All of these takes on the future overlook the fundamental political and cultural shift that has taken place on the right end of the political spectrum (worldwide) over the past couple of decades.
A Trump or not-Trump future has little to do with where things are headed. The man serves as a recruiting vehicle for the bodies needed to undermine democracy. And for the immediate future, he’s a stone around the neck of California Republicans.
The big picture has nothing to do with vaccines or critical race theory or abortion or trans people. The increase in the gap between the haves and have nots (economics!) has led a portion of the “haves” to decide that this representative democracy stuff in the United States is due for an overhaul to protect their longer term interests.
Everything else we see in terms of right wing activism is merely window dressing.
https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1448637666904395777?s=20
As Branko Milanovic and others who study the question have pointed out:
In every political system, even a democracy, the rich tend to hold more political power. The danger is that this political power will be used to promote policies that further cement the economic power of the rich. The higher the inequality, the more likely we are to move away from democracy toward plutocracy.
As far as upcoming elections are concerned, the GOP could save a lot of money by simply naming candidates and then complaining about election fraud on election day, because that’s the message Americans are hearing.
From the Washington Post
With more than a year to go before the midterm elections, the former president is leaving no corner of the party untouched as he moves to assert his dominance, both in public and behind the scenes. His stepped-up efforts create a conundrum for many of the party’s strategists and lawmakers, who believe they could have a banner election year in 2022 if they keep the focus on President Biden and his agenda.
But Trump has repeatedly turned the focus back onto the 2020 election. He moved into new territory Wednesday when he released a statement threatening the GOP with ballot-box repercussions if candidates do not embrace his false claims that the White House race was rigged.
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I would be remiss if I didn’t end this post without a few words about Democrats and democracy. It’s absolutely true that voting rights are the basis for the party’s future, at least without the obstacles Republican legislators like to put in the way.
Keeping Donald Trump and his wannabe in their focus will be a winning strategy in the short term. Texas wants teachers to do “both sides” when mentioning the holocaust; Florida wants to fine businesses that insist on having their employees vaccinated; Oklahoma says it's ok to run over protesters... the stupidity runs deep with these politicians who think being mean equals governance.
While the Democratic party has a wing advocating for mitigating some of the worst impacts of growing inequality, it also has elements representing economic sectors who are not part of the financial entities funding the GOP.
A good example locally would be the BioPharma industry, which Rep. Scott Peters advocacy on their behalf effectively blocks reforms. A host of socially beneficial programs are being held hostage, because without the “drug reforms” part of the Democrats’ package, there is no way to pay for it.
The kneejerk reaction to this kind of obstruction and other political absurdities is for politically naive people to say we need a third party. And that would be great, except that our democracy is structured to be bi (as in two) partisan.
Third parties are effective and can become majority parties in European-style parliamentary systems. In the US of A, not so much. Trust me, I’ve done the research. (Here’s a good explainer.)
The surest path to political success at the ballot box these days is activism within one of the interest groups making up the Democratic Party. That’s a tall order.
Beyond competing interests lies the reality that politics attracts people strongly interested in personal advancement over societal accomplishments. Then there are the people who are just plain sociopaths; every party gets them, and it only takes one or two to create chaos.
The short version of the point I’m making here is that politics is a lot of hard work. People seeking magical solutions should probably stick to video games.
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Post Script: the mass media hasn’t picked up on on this yet...
There is a slow moving general strike going on; people are sick of being crapped on. This unhappiness presents an opportunity for political parties willing to tap into the energy created.
https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1448356811875233794?s=20
This (below) is just the first in a huge thread about labor unrest in the US.
https://twitter.com/BernieToVest/status/1448646680371351553?s=20
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