California’s 49th Congressional District: 2020 Preview
The times sure have changed in Darrell Issa’s old stomping grounds.
Congressman Issa quit before he could be defeated in 2018. Just four years earlier, he’d been re-elected with a 20 point margin over his Democratic opponent.
The 2018 primary field was crowded, with 16 candidates vying for the job. Former GOP Assemblymember Diane Harkey led the pack on June 5, followed by environmental lawyer Mike Levin, who topped three other Democrats.
In the general election, Levin won with 56.4% of the vote over Harkey. It was the largest winning margin by any Democrat who flipped a formerly GOP held seat in California.
There were a lot of grumblings on the Democratic side during both the primary and general campaigns about how Levin wasn’t the right candidate. After all, he’d served on the National Finance Committee for Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign for President.
Very suspicious, indeed.
At best, his environmental record was being questioned; at worst he was rumored to be a closet Republican, even though he’d served as executive director of the Orange County Democratic Party.
Two years later, Rep. Mike Levin has silenced his critics, sponsoring or co-sponsoring legislation spanning most aspects of what would be considered a progressive agenda.
In February, Levin threw his support behind the Green New Deal, the plan by Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York to tackle climate change.
“Climate change is the defining issue of our generation, and we must act now to address this crisis before it is too late,” Levin said after joining a group of House Democrats in introducing the Green New Deal resolution.
https://twitter.com/dougporter506/status/1211847812121423872?s=20
The Cook Political Report deems the 49th an R+1 district, and the National Republican Congressional Committee says Levin is one of 55 targets for their “Freedom or Socialism” campaign.
Republicans hold a 2 point advantage in voter registration in the district, which includes coastal cities in San Diego and Orange Counties. Democrat Hillary Clinton carried the 49th in 2016, and there are indications that GOP voters are not all enthused about President Trump.
The sole GOP candidate for 2020 is San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott. He also ran in 2018, finishing eighth overall and behind two other Republicans in the primary.
His elevator pitch:
As your Congressman I pledge to always do what is best for our district, not cater to special interests and fringe socialist interests.”
In addition to the Democrats = Socialism! GOP campaign talking points, Maryott has a couple of (probably) unintentionally funny issue positions.
Build on the success of tax reform.
Riiiight…. Here are some facts.
Over the next two years, income for middle-class Americans is projected to grow at less than half the rate as for the richest 1%, a recent Congressional Budget Office found.
The country's top-earning households will also enjoy a bigger decline in tax rates than all other groups.
As a result, income inequality in the U.S. — already at a 50-year high — is expected to worsen.
the government now estimates it will lose $600 billion more in tax revenues than it initially thought, bringing the cut’s total cost to $1.6 trillion.
Taxpayers spent about eight billion hours on tax compliance in 2019 (compared with about six billion hours in 2016). Love that simple tax form, huh?
In the four years prior to the passage of the GOP tax law, the economy added an average of 213,000 jobs each month, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the nearly two years since the law passed, average job creation has actually declined by an average of 11,000 per month.
In the last two years, the growth rate of private direct investment has substantially declined. In the four years before the law passed, private direct investment grew by about 3.3% annually, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In the two years since the law was enacted, that rate is down to 2.5%.
And that promised $4000 average annual wage increase per household has amounted to less than $400 for a full-time worker, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Maybe they think there’s 10 people per household…)
Did I mention the 91 profitable US corporations that paid $0 in taxes?
Get the nation’s finances in order
I’m assuming this is Maryott’s fall back position in case Trump loses in 2020. Only if that happens will we see the re-emergence of Republican “concern” over the federal budget deficit. Should Trump win, you can rest assured that Republicans in congress will make good on promises to put Social Security and Medicare on the chopping block.
***
Via the Union-Tribune:
Thad Kousser, professor of political science at the University of California San Diego, said he has doubts about whether this race will receive much national attention and financial investment from Republicans.
“This district was a surprisingly easy win for Levin, and I think that means it is probably not a district Republicans will opt to target in 2020,” Kousser said, although Republicans may still shoot for it, given the party’s limited pathways for retaking the House.
Because the district includes multiple media markets, it will be expensive for both candidates to buy advertising, said Kousser and Pitney.
During the most recent fundraising quarter, Levin had raised $415,721, with $342,421 coming from individual contributors, while Maryott raised $295,737, including $45,737 from individual contributors.
Incumbent Levin shouldn’t take anything for granted, but the overall picture for him in 2020 looks promising. His frequent town halls in the district, work on veterans issues, and foundation of voter support built for him in 2018 should equal success.
***
Mike Levin (Democratic Incumbent)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Brian Maryott (Republican)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Hey folks! Be sure to like/follow Words & Deeds on Facebook. If you’d like to have each post emailed to you check out the simple subscription form on the right side of the front page.
Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com