California's 50th Congressional District: A 2020 Primary Preview
The redder than red 50th Congressional District covers 62% of San Diego county’s land area, spanning north from Jamul through Santee, Ramona and San Marcos to the southern portion of Temecula in Riverside County. The southern edge of the district runs through Alpine to San Diego County’s eastern boundary.
Ten candidates have declared to run in the March primary. The Hunter dynasty is over.
In 2018 Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar waged a solo uphill campaign against the incumbent, gaining traction and national attention.
For the first time Rep. Hunter noticed he had serious competition. A smear campaign began. Campa-Najjar was all-but-called a terrorist sympathizer by a guy with less morals than a cockroach.
The “be afraid of the other” crowd turned out in sufficiently large enough numbers to return the incumbent to his villainous haunts in Washington DC. The race was close, with a 3.4% separating the candidates in a district when Hunter had seen 2 to 1 majorities.
The day after the 2018 election, Campa-Najjar declared his intention to give it another shot. Much of the grassroots energy that contributed to Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement and the subsequent flipping of the 49th Congressional district promised to refocus their efforts to unseat Hunter.
Margaret Hunter, who was indicted along with her husband, flipped. Revelations about the Congressman’s philandry might have been connected with that decision. And now the U.S. Attorney had more than enough evidence not only to convict Duncan Hunter, but to stage a trial chock full of titillating trivia.
Eventually Hunter announced that he’d plead guilty to a reduced charge, promising to vacate his seat “shortly after the holidays.” Well, the holidays have passed, and Hunter’s still collecting a paycheck, even though he’s prohibited by House rules from voting on any legislation.
With the incumbent obviously on his way out, bigger-named Republicans were willing to declare their candidacies.
Radio talk show host Carl DeMaio, fresh off of his losing effort to overturn California’s gas tax, figured his mailing list could do the trick of getting him noticed, and it did, to the tune of $900,000 in just 25 days.
Since then, things haven’t gone so well. It’s always a telling sign when a candidate won’t make a big deal about endorsements, and there are none to be found on the Carl DeMaio website.
In November, the DeMaio campaign tried to gin up support with an email plea suggesting polling showing that Republicans could be shut out of a place on the general election ballot. This was an odd claim, given that there were no other Democrats with name recognition having declared their intentions.
Here’s the thing about this candidate; he’s been known to bend the truth... Okay, it’s almost guaranteed he’ll lay down a few whoppers along the way.
The Union-Tribune’s Michael Smolens pointed out that these sorts of claims aren’t unheard of(Campa-Najjar spun the same mythical survey a different way) in campaign fundraising, and asked for details about the polling, a request the DeMao campaign denied.
Eventually we learned the basis for DeMaio’s claim was a comment by former 49th Congressional District candidate Doug Applegate saying he was considering a candidacy made shortly after his nemesis Darrell Issa announced his intentions.
From the Union-Tribune:
If Applegate is plotting a bid, he’s doing so quietly. An online search did not turn up subsequent comments from him about running. He didn’t return multiple messages left at his office and on his cellphone. He doesn’t have a campaign website and, according to the Federal Elections Commission, hasn’t created a committee to raise money. The March 3 primary is fast approaching and the other candidates are galloping ahead.
Yet, he ended up in DeMaio’s poll, which showed him in third place, two points behind Campa-Najjar and four behind DeMaio. Next comes the beleaguered Hunter, who is under federal indictment for allegedly spending campaign funds for personal benefit, and Issa. Jones apparently is lumped in with “other/undecided.”
Carl DeMaio’s prickly demeanor and his unbridled opportunism have soured his relations with the Republican leadership. The strategy of using an anti-gas tax ballot proposition to drive voter turnout on the right failed miserably. However, it did add a lot of names and addresses to DeMaio controlled mailing lists.
Once it became crystal clear that Congressman Hunter would not politically survive the scandal surrounding his campaign finances, former 49th District Congressman Darrell Issa jumped into the race.
The Trump administration nominated Issa for a senior trade post, but Senate confirmation never happened, at least in part due to a “snag” in his FBI background check.
From the Washington Post:
The postponement of Issa’s hearing before the Foreign Relations Committee came after Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), the top Democrat on the panel, raised concerns about an FBI background check conducted on Issa that, he said, might be “problematic and potentially disqualifying for Senate confirmation.” He did not reveal the nature of the issue, and other committee members who have not seen the FBI report said they, too, wanted time to review the issue.
“I’m not talking about a nominee’s favorite color or where they had dinner,” Menendez (N.J.) said. “I’m talking about serious issues that go to credibility and suitability for these positions.”
Whatever the FBI found hasn’t stopped six Republican Congressmen from California from endorsing Issa. Duncan Hunter’s daddy has also endorsed Issa.
Temecula Mayor Matt Rahn, El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells, former Escondido Mayor Sam Abed and retired Navy SEAL Larry Wilske all dropped their candidacies for the congressional seat when Issa announced.
At a GOP gathering in October --prior to Hunter dropping out-- State Senator Brian Jones who, unlike DeMaio and Issa, actually lives in the 50th garnered the most votes, but failed to reach the threshold needed to gain an endorsement.
Jones has serious roots in the area, having been a Santee City Councilman, along with being elected to both the State Assembly and Senate. A significant part of his record in Sacramento includes votes against legislation regarding vaccine exemption limitations.
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Unlike Darrell Issa, Democratic candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar has passed a background check -- a prerequisite for working in the Obama administration.
He has been endorsed by all San Diego’s Democratic Congress members, a who’s who of other local elected officials, eleven prominent Democratic party clubs, and the national Indivisible organization.
Activists have been canvassing the 50th Congressional District for months now, focusing on El Cajon, where strategists believe a boost in turnout could put him over the top come November.
All of this Democratic support makes the last minute entrance of Marissa Calderon, who originally filed to run as a Democrat seeking the seat of retiring (53 CD) Congressmember Susan Davis, seem odd.
Here’s what I’m able to discern: Calderon is Executive Director of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals (NAHREP) and graduated from UC Berkeley. She’s running on what she calls pocketbook issues, i.e., generic language about housing affordability, immigration, and health care.
I’m not sure what good can come from her candidacy, other than harming the candidate who’s put in three years getting to know voters, building alliances, and establishing name id.
Other candidates in the 50th include: Jose Cortes (proud Chicano socialist), Helen Horvath (Organizational Development Consultant), Lucinda KWH Jahn (entertainment industry professional), Henry Alan Ota (loan officer, farmer), Nate Wilkins (former Navy SEAL). See links to websites below for more information.
My guess on the primary results is that Campa-Najjar will face either Issa or DeMaio in the fall. Neither of those Republican candidates live in the district, which is perfectly legal. Democrats could flip CD 50 with with a massive turnout, otherwise, it’s back to the same-old, same old.
Here are the campaign websites and social media links for all the candidates in the 50th.
Marisa Calderon (Democrat)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Ammar Campa-Najjar (Democrat)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Jose Cortes (Peace and Freedom)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Carl DeMaio (Republican)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Helen L Horvath (No Party Preference)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Darrell Issa (Republican)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Lucinda KWH Jahn (No Party Preference)
Website | Facebook | Twitter NA
Brian W. Jones (Republican)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Henry Alan Ota (No Party Preference)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
Nathan “Nate” Wilkins (Republican)
Website | Facebook | Twitter
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