Da Mayor Is A Bum; Can Anybody Replace Him?

You might be surprised at my answer

Imagine, if you will America’ eighth  largest city finds itself without an incumbent mayor headed into the Nov 5, 2024 general election. Todd Gloria, who served in that post both as interim and elected mayor has been kidnapped by space aliens and taken to a galaxy far, far away.

For purposes of this imaginary scenario, imagine that all the other candidates who ran in the primary are placed on the general election ballot, while Gloria’s name is deleted.

(Hey, if people believe Taylor Swift is a pentagon psy op, anything is possible)

What would candidates Jane Glasson, Genevieve Jones-Wright, Dan Smeichowski, or Larry Turner have at the ready should they assume the office? Would any of their programs/promises actually pass the city council? Could any of them bring allies to help oversee the city?

These are questions I’ll be gandering at in the essay. I’ll start with my usual format, name, resume, and candidate website for their point of view and more info. My analysis will be based on whatever I can glean from their campaigns or news coverage. And, don’t worry, I will have plenty to say about Mr. Gloria at the end.

While the mayor’s race is non-partisan, the candidates aren’t. Both major parties have endorsed candidates in this contest.

Jane Glasson, No ballot description, no campaign website, there is a social media account she uses to convey information and opinions, like the fact that she’s conservative and Republican. She works as a special education assistant for the San Diego Unified School District.

She unsuccessfully ran for City Council twice, placing a distant third in the 2022  district city council primary. Her platform that year included opposition to vaccine mandates.

As a candidate for Mayor, she told the San Diego Sun that she wanted unsheltered people to be offered treatment to break any addictions. 

If elected, would a mayoral proclamation be in the works until she discovers that there are not enough treatment beds or programs to handle the 25-40% (I'm not sure of that number, but it is a minority) who might need treatment?

And she’ll discover that transportation is run by an autonomous entity of which she’ll need to build a coalition to have any impact on her promise to shape bus routes to fit into a vision of what homeowners and renters might want.

She could ask the City Council to reverse all ‘defund the police’ programs only to find out that there weren’t any to start with, and that SDPD funding has increased annually.

I’m hoping you get the picture here. Regardless of her intentions, Glasson will discover that building coalitions are necessary to accomplishing things she wants done. And she has no coalition building tools outside of Linked In.

***

Genevieve Jones-Wright -Democrat, Attorney/Professor/Non Profit Executive  https://www.wright4sd.com/.

Jones has experience running for office in a high profile race; she ran for County District Attorney against interim District Attorney Summer Stephan in 2018. She got beat handily, as local law enforcement used antisemitic themes to discredit her as being a far leftie. 

The character assault wasn’t because Jones-Wright was such a good candidate (she wasn’t bad, either), it was because the legacy of the office had to be protected. Appointing your successor, as Bonnie Dumanis did, is the time honored way in county politics to keep scandals from surfacing.

Here we are six years later and some of what was flung remains in the public consciousness. Local law enforcement players still have an ax to grind and a record of successfully neutralizing anyone they feel is not acting in their best interest, with Supervisor Monica Montgomery being the exception.. 

Outside of their campaign contributions largess, the law and order lobby has a network of contacts ready to do their bidding. Look at the failed effort to get police vaccinated against COVID to understand this power. Not only did cops evade a mandate without consequence, it’s now a tool in their arsenal wielded to excuse poor retention, recruitment, and performance.  

Wright has some decent political supporters to help her along in assuming the office of mayor. I know her personally and can attest to her character. But she will find, as city hall reformers of many stripes have found, a mysterious void entangling promises of progress.

Money from interest groups still rules in San Diego, and much of their success lies with unexplainable delays, threats of legal action, backstabbing, and old fashioned bureaucratic slow walking. 

Jones-Wright has an admirable vision of improving the quality of life for San Diego. Whether or not she has the stamina and foresight to stop the same-old, same-old from continuing would be an unanswered question if she takes office.

I can only hope she’ll see the need to tell truths about the city that many don’t want to hear --and galvanize the public– to actually change the direction of the city.

***

Dan Smeichowski, Independent, Real Estate agent. https://dannytri.com/

He is San Diego’s perennial candidate, having run for office every year over the decade that I’ve compiled voting guides. 

This particular campaign is being run on a $62,000 loan he made to himself along with three $100 donors. He revels in his unconventionality, whether running near-naked through the desert or imploring SANDAG to consider a tram connecting the Balboa Trolley Station with Pacific beach. His website is very entertaining.

Thinking about Smeichowski being in the mayor’s office makes me giggle. The Ferengi Grand Nagus from Deep Space Nine comes to mind. Having visions does not match up with having the ability to implement them.

He is, however, very sensitive, and the snarkiness of this write up will likely draw a rebuke.

***

Larry Turner, Independent, community relations officer for the San Diego Police Department https://larryturnerformayor.com/

He is the endorsed candidate of the Republican Party. His campaign is mostly fueled by a $15,000 loan he made to himself. He’s an ex-Marine. A former SWAT team officer. A take charge kind of guy.

Homelessness is his issue, so moving into city hall would necessarily provide the opportunity to carry out various programs. 

Turner promised to fix homelessness in the first 180 days he’s in office, and the city government would be tasked with building 5000 shelter beds with resources for mental health and addiction treatments. 

This likely couldn't be done without military assistance in terms of personnel and materials. Gov. Newsom would be called upon to mobilize the national guard. And his choice would come down to being accused of not doing enough to assist unhoused people or having military convoys on the streets of San Diego.

This vision dovetails nicely with that of Sunbreak Ranch, the not-in-my-backyard humane concept of a modern day holding cell (with fresh air). The military will be invaluable in rounding up those on the streets who decline his offers of help.

He’ll order the police to step up in arresting San Diegans, ending the slow strike that has grown over the past four years. (George Foster took all the fun out of policing) They’ll be working to bumping up the crime rate to help justify additional funding. And…the department would be called upon to undertake a revision in the statistics showing a decline in crime in nearly all categories since 2020. 

He’ll ask for revaluation of building permits of projects having the effect of increasing density, bringing housing starts to a screeching halt. He would order bike lanes to be eliminated from city projects, and have to find room in the budget to reimburse the state and federal grants used to create them.

It won’t take long for Turner to realize that abrupt changes in policy have consequences. That is IF he can get a city council that is amenable to his “adult in the room” style.

***

I know that all politicians make promises via platitudes while running for office. The point to be made with all these outsider candidates vying for San Diego’s top job is that they often lack perspective on how governance works and don’t have the connections to create a support staff.

No matter what a candidate says, voters at some level have to believe they are capable of doing the job. I’m not saying outsiders shouldn’t run for office; I am saying no matter what their point of view, they need to have a track record (or prove they don’t need one in the case of Mr. Turner) to accomplish their goals. 

***

If you follow social media, everybody hates Todd Gloria, Democrat incumbent, https://toddgloria.com/.

I’m surprised this city’s legion of keyboard warriors doesn’t regularly assemble at city hall to yell insults.

The truth is he’s largely played the hand he was dealt, with proviso that some special interests are more special than others. It’s also true that, while he’s carefully crafted a progressive veneer, at heart he’s a committed centrist. And he’s vastly smarter than most people disparaging him realize. 

The issues that wannabes are campaigning on don’t start or end at the city limit. Homelessness is a national problem, based on how the national economy has evolved. Drug addicts and alcoholics used to find places to live and even pay rent. 

Infrastructure everywhere is deteriorating, thanks to the popularized notion that the government isn’t worthy enough to pay (more) taxes for. (You have to look back to the Eisenhower years to find a president who’s done as much for infrastructure as our current president.)

Public safety is not created by employing more police or enacting more draconian laws. Over the past decade the number of sworn personnel in the city has remained nearly constant, as the rate of crimes overall has risen and fallen. 

What has fallen are closure rates –crimes ending with an arrest and a court judgment. In 2013 violent crimes were successfully pursued 53.9% of the time; in 2022 the rate was 38.2%. A decade ago property crimes were closed at 15.4%; in 2022, 7.6%. 

One caveat here: the statistics quoted are for San Diego County, but the declines indicated are not outliers. This is a national problem. Public perceptions of increasing crime rates are currently at 78%; a decade ago they were at 64%.    

So, the crime “issue” raised by other candidates is based on perceptions, likely fueled by politicians who rely on fear to motivate voters. Worrying about the crime of wage theft might be a more productive exercise, except that it’s not in the SDPD’s jurisdiction and there are so few qualified investigators.

Todd Gloria’s “crime” problem, despite his attempts to woo the police union, is that he hasn’t been forgiven for the masking and vaccination mandates during the pandemic. I’m assured that the fact that he’s perceived as liberal, is gay, and brown has nothing to do with the POA’s hostility.

Speaking of playing the hand he was dealt, the housing shortage in San Diego has been largely by design. Back a few decades ago, increasing density was thought to be a bad thing by environmentally conscious voters; now it’s vested homeowners who fight multi-family developments. (Somewhere else is okay, though)

Governments at all levels have taken steps to encourage residential construction, but legislative delays, lawsuits, and bureaucratic inertia have led to the perception that nothing is being done. The same “adults in the room” decrying permit delays and red tape are apparently unaware that these obstacles to residential buildings have been significantly lessened. (by the Gloria administration)

The Gloria administration is far from perfect. San Diego has a ready-made ‘wink wink’ system for commercially significant enterprises. The Midway development (a great idea), for instance, has the stench of favoritism all around it. And, since transparency on economic development is a scarce commodity, it’s likely to be odorific in an ugly way forever. But…the alternative (really!) is doing nothing for a looong time. 

A lot of liberal/progressive people I know are disappointed and/or angry with Mayor Todd Gloria. His office has worked to counter that perception with a press release blitz (maybe the biggest ever) that would make The Donald proud.

He is what he is. He’s good as an ambassador for the city government, and for playing the government grants game. And he’ll be reelected by a huge margin, even though 47% of voters surveyed by SurveyUSA say they are undecided. His competitors (including a couple that didn’t make the ballot) collective support in the poll was 20%, with no single candidate exceeding 4%.

2024 isn’t going to be a year where things in government locally undergo significant change. We voters are being asked to keep on keeping on, and that’s what we’ll do to keep the wolves at the door at bay.