Election News Round Up & Good News for You to Ignore
Don't Blink, There'll Be Another Poll Out Shortly
We’re down to forty six days until the general election, and nineteen days until voting starts in California, and public opinion polls are popping up like field mushrooms after a good rain.
The Public Policy Institute of California’s take on the mood of the electorate, aka the Californians and Their Government survey on state and national issues was conducted prior to the presidential debate (August 29–September 9, 2024). Its methodology is good in attempting to match up the voting population’s demographics. The sample size this year was 1605 respondents. More than 800 possible humans were rejected through screening questions.
Still, the PPIC survey was a snapshot in time, and as many will point out, much advertising, commentary, and reporting has occurred as the election nears. (The previous sentence is also a device to remind me to use the past tense in this part of today’s posting.)
That said, there are some broad trends worth looking at.
First and foremost is that Democrats are headed to win big across the board in California. It’s not surprising that Vice President Harris had a YUGE lead over former president Donald Trump (69%-29%). Nor was Rep. Adam Schiff’s lead over Steve Garvey (63%-35%)
Voter enthusiasm is higher for 2024 than 2020 (69%-29%). Democrats (76%) are more interested than Republicans(67%) and Independents (59%).
Where the survey gets interesting are the questions about the House of Representatives. Statewide, the dominance of respondents saying they’ll vote for Democrats (62%-36%) is understandable, given their registration advantage (D 46%- R 25%- NPP 22%)
Today, in the 10 competitive districts (as defined by the Cook Political Report), the margin is narrower (55% for the Democrat, 41% for the Republican). Over nine in ten Democratic and Republican likely voters would choose their party’s candidate, while independents are more divided (56% for the Democrat, 39% for the Republican). Majorities favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican across demographic groups and in the Inland Empire, Los Angeles, Orange/San Diego, and the San Francisco Bay Area. In the Central Valley, likely voters are more divided (51% for the Republican, 46% for the Democrat)..
If this holds, the makeup of California’s Congressional delegation will be Bluer come next year.
When it comes to the statewide 10 ballot measures, it looks like the law enforcement industrial complex has done a good job in scaring voters, so Proposition 36 (increased incarceration and offers of treatment with no real funding source) was way ahead (71%-26%).
The big bucks (as in we need money for this thing) propositions 2 (School Bonds) and 4 (Water & Wildfires) looked to pass, although the education haters hadn’t weighed in yet. (Well off Republicans over 45 are the No voting block).
The other measure likely to pass, according to the poll, is Proposition 35 (Medicare Funding, 63%-34%). Governor Newsum will not be amused by this, since this funding is one that gets played with come budget time.
The rest of the pack were too close to call, in my opinion.
Proposition 5 (Allows Local Bonds for Affordable Housing and Public Infrastructure with 55% Voter Approval) Many people who complain about homeless humans will vote no on this… if they’d just added the words “somewhere else”...
Proposition 6 (Eliminates Constitutional Provision Allowing Involuntary Servitude for Incarcerated Persons) - Slavery is ok for certain people.
Proposition 32 (Raises Minimum Wage) - A meaningless measure that is little more than a rich guy vanity project.
Proposition 33 (Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property) Don’t worry, the negative ad tsunami is coming.
Proposition 34 (Restricts Spending of Prescription Drug Revenues by Certain Health Care Providers). Real Estate industry revenge packaged as a ballot measure.
Two other takeaways from the PPIC survey deserve a mention. Congress was losing out to cockroaches in approval ratings, and a majority of respondents saw bad economic times ahead.
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My favorite headline of the morning was: Data scientist who correctly predicted 2020 election now betting on 'landslide' Harris win
“We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state," he said.
Miller based his model around betting trends on PredictIt, which is the largest betting market for U.S. politics. Tully explained that Miller "took the Predictit odds in the 56 individual voting jurisdictions, tracked the hourly changes, and used his proprietary model to roll the data into daily odds." Miller said he viewed PredictIt as more accurate than traditional polling, which uses a much smaller sample and is typically a week behind current trends.
I think I’ll hold off before settling in to watch Star Trek reruns. Speaking of the Trekiverse, Stacy Adams and Cory Booker are hosting a Women of Star Trek for Kamala virtual rally on October 3. I counted 28 former and present women from the various series who are slated to appear. Thank you for being tolerant of my geekiness.
At the Dean’s Report, Dean Obeidallah has an interesting take: Want to help VP Harris win? Ignore Trump, talk Harris.
So what message did they find was the most persuasive in getting people to go from simply being anti-Trump to pro-Harris? “Mainstream kitchen table Democratic ideas.” They list these as reducing “the cost of living, protect Medicare and Social Security by taxing the rich, keep abortion legal, and raise the minimum wage.”
Just a few weeks ago a second study was released on this very issue, this time by Blueprint which is a self-described “public opinion research initiative designed to take a sober, detailed look at what Democrats need to do to win in 2024.” For this new study, Blueprint surveyed an online sample of 13,215 voters in late August by showing them a series of ads they created about Harris and Trump.
Their findings line up well with the two political professors study, namely that if you want to get voters to support Harris, then talk Harris—not how awful Trump is. Blueprint’s report explained: “Voters are eager for a breath of fresh air in this race, and their perceptions of Donald Trump are mostly solidified.” But still “they want to learn more about Vice President Harris’s accomplishments, policy plans, and personal background.”
I think this is worth considering because Trump lives for attention and doesn’t care what form it takes as long as they spell his name right. On the other hand, I’m not up for sounding like a North Korean propagandist… Heroic Harris Holds Back Hurricane…
Maybe something more like a sandwich would do the trick… Kamala will protect your family meal —> Trump’s tariffs will cost you 20% more at the grocery store←- Fighting grocery store monopolies is one way to lower your grocery bill and protect good jobs…
Not elegant, but I hope you get the picture. Trump is bad. Trump is evil. Kamala is a better choice. Gotta make sure to say those nice things. And besides, affirmations should bring a smile to your face. Just don’t think too hard about it.
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There were a couple of local debates recently; Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer vs former Mayor Kevin Faulconer and just last night, Mayor Todd Gloria vs Larry Turner.
Surprise, surprise! Everybody claims they won!
Faulconer was a little wise-ass at his debate, but at least both candidates had some numbers to back up their claims. I really can’t stand the magic thinking approaches coming from Faulconer; he didn’t ‘solve’ homelessness and neither will he as a County Supervisor. And the former Mayor will never live down his complicity in the 101 Ash Street debacle.
What I will say about the Mayoral debate was that Hizzoner looked wooden, even as he ran down facts as opposed to the challenger's suppositions. What it showed me was that Turner is going after the “Life sucks in San Diego” crowd; imagine thinking that this place isn’t good enough to raise a family? And, yes, life does suck for a lot of people for a lot of reasons, but having an amateur in City Hall ain’t gonna make things better. The misinformation about bike lanes really pissed me off –I’m not a cyclist–; there’s plenty of real world data refuting everything Turner said on the subject.
This bit of nuggets from Axios San Diego is presented for your reading pleasure.
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News You Outta Know
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Who Do Voters Really Like? Taylor Swift. From the banality that is The New York Times.
Ms. Swift posted her endorsement on Instagram, writing that she was supporting Ms. Harris “because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos.”
The Times has never polled voters about Ms. Swift before, but it appears that her decision has quickly divided Americans along partisan lines. Among Democrats, 70 percent view her favorably, compared with 23 percent of Republicans.
Among those with an unfavorable view, of course, is former President Donald J. Trump, who, over the weekend, wrote in a post on Truth Social: “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!”
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Vance had better buckle up: His debate might go as badly as Trump’s via Jenifer Rubin at The Washington Post
Trump has two options. Because he is miffed about how his own last debate transpired, he could demand that Vance not show up for his. That wouldn’t be the worst idea, given Vance’s potential to make sore points for Trump into gaping wounds. Ninety minutes on national television will be more than enough time for Vance to remind American women why so many dislike him. Alternatively, Trump could let Vance debate and then disavow whatever his running mate says — which was his tactic when asked about Vance’s claim that Trump as president would veto a national abortion ban.
Certainly, vice-presidential candidates historically have made little or no difference in the outcome of presidential races. But with a deteriorating 78-year-old at the top of the ticket, and as someone who magnifies the most unattractive Trump qualities — e.g., xenophobia, misogyny, hypocrisy on immigration — Vance has not helped Trump. (That might be why Trump ducked the question from the National Association of Black Journalists on whether his running mate would be ready to take over if need be.)
In the end, voters will most likely base their decision on the top of the ticket. Nevertheless, given that Vance has turned out to be such a troublesome, unpopular and gaffe-prone choice, voters might well ask whether they want someone for president who most certainly does not pick “only the best people.”
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Scientists Found Hidden Physics Inside Van Gogh’s Starry Night via Popular Mechanics
Specifically, the team wanted to look at how closely Van Gogh’s brush strokes mirrored atmospheric turbulence—disturbances in the atmosphere, often caused by differences in temperature, that churn things up and change the trajectory of everything from water vapor to photons.
It turns out, as unlikely as it may seem, that Van Gogh likely had a fairly complex understanding of how our atmosphere behaved. The analysis “reveals a deep and intuitive understanding of natural phenomena,” Yongxiang Huang, one of the authors of the study, said in a press release.
To reach their conclusion, the team compared the 14 main shapes of the painting to a concept in atmospheric physics known as Kolmogorov’s theory. It’s a sub-idea that helps narrow the concept of an “energy cascade”—the way that energy transfers from large scale patterns to smaller ones. Kolmogorov’s theory, at a very basic level, dictates that the direction of the first main swirl has less and less of an impact on the other branching swirls the smaller and smaller they get.
Today’s lead graphic via Pew Research
