A Loss for Gov. Newsom Is a Win for Senator Mitch McConnell
Two liberal coastal states are facing political crises involving their chief executives. Republicans are seeking to leverage those situations to their advantage, since neither state would be impacted by the conservative effort to undermine the electoral process.
Here in California, recent polling indicates that Republican enthusiasm could be enough to overcome Democrats complacency resulting in the recall of Governor Gavin Newsom. Resentment over restrictions imposed on the public in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have elevated what started out --before people started getting sick-- as an effort to whip up antagonisms over immigration.
New Yorkers are about to impeach their Governor, a process that will play out over the next couple of months in the wake a report detailing Mario Cuomo’s sexual harassment of 11 women and enabling toxic workplace environment. He is facing calls to resign from four of the region’s governors, both of New York’s senators and President Biden.
Both governors have played the victim card in response to negative press coverage about indefensible actions.
Cuomo, who at one point emerged as the nation’s sane leader on the pandemic, now appears to have engaged in the sorts of bad boy behavior Americans say they’re sick of. His denials mimic those of just about every Democratic power predator who’s gone down in recent years. Similar conduct by Republican pols seems to be more of a feature than a bug, almost as if being an asshole is considered proof of leadership ability. Despite their hypocrisy on this issue, the right could gain an advantage via increased voter cynicism.
In New York, impeachment means Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, will take the top job. The recall situation in California is a bit more serious.
Via Zenei Triunfo-Cortez at the Mercury News:
“While proponents of the recall would have us believe this election is about opposition to pandemic safety measures, the sponsors of the recall have a different, hidden agenda.”
Newsom has played right into Republican characterizations of him as an incompetent fop, unable to restrain himself even as Californians lived through shutdowns and economic sacrifice. His game show-style self congratulatory cash giveaways stood in sharp contrast to early warnings about hard times and cutbacks in state services.
The governor’s reservoir of goodwill is lower than it should be as he gets (unfairly) blamed for crime rates and the state's economic engine is challenged by energy and water shortages brought on by climate change.
Still, consider the alternative.
A coterie of quackadoodle and/or incompetant Republicans are poised to take control of the world’s fifth largest economy and an array of government programs tending toward those favored by progressives. Even a short term interruption --assuming an insurgent politician gets ousted in 2022-- will have implications for midterm elections nationally.
Four of those Republicans met for a debate at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in Orange County on Wednesday night: former Congressman Doug Ose, former Mayor Kevin Faulconer, businessman John Cox, and Assembly member Kevin Kiley took turns answering questions on a wide variety of issues.
All of them pandered to the misinformation/misrepresentations about those issues being sold by the Republican noise machine. Increases in violent crime were blamed on voters-passed reforms to the criminal justice system; the flood of guns on the streets wasn’t mentioned.
All the candidates claimed Critical Race Theory is mandated to be taught in schools by Gov. Newsom and his minions, using variations on the conservative talking points claiming that talking about racial discrimination is “dividing” the country.
https://twitter.com/blockgreg/status/1423108911108804610?s=20
None of them had answers to questions about how they could accomplish things when faced with a Democratic legislature. None of them acknowledged the relationship of water and energy to climate change.
All of them talked as though they had magic wands in their back pockets that could be waved to solve problems; water could magically be desalinated overnight to deal with the current drought.
Via Politico's California Playbook:
— WINNERS AND LOSERS — Faulconer got our win for his overall performance and his handling of issues in-depth. Ose appeared to bring most of the heat and generated the best sound bites (EDD needs to “answer the damn phone!”), and with the highest folksy factor, may have won the Nixon Library crowd on hand. Kiley accomplished his goal of introducing himself to Californians and showing his wonky but impressive legislative chops. But Cox , who’s run for governor before, needs a campaign refresh; we didn’t count the “I’m a businessman” references, but trust us, there were plenty. In all, it was very 2018 … and we know how that turned out.
And Kevin Kiley should consider a career doing the voiceovers for commercials needing a lot of fast talking small print at the end.
The two best known Republican candidates were conspicuously absent: Caitlyn Jenner is in Australia filming a reality TV program, while conservative talk radio host Larry Elder opted to be at a Bakersfield fundraiser. Governor Gavin Newsom wisely didn’t respond to an invitation to appear.
Elder is now the acknowledged leader in polling on the question of who would replace the current governor if he should be recalled. You can expect a flood of opposition research on his views to surface in the coming weeks. Already, his position about the ideal minimum wage being $0.00 is making the rounds.
The wingnut set will be thrilled to hear Elder’s view that it’s unfair for Trump to be blamed for the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol since Hillary Clinton wasn’t held responsible for arrests made in demonstrations following the 2016 election. Never mind that one politician encouraged disorder and the other didn’t. Never mind that the largely peaceful 2017 protests were not attempting to interfere with the electoral process. Nope. It’s all Hillary’s fault. As always.
What is amazing to me is the lack of support for the candidate once considered to be the consensus choice for the Republican establishment, namely Kevin Faulconer. Holy moley; this guy’s got a track record of actually being elected and has a pile of campaign cash and he’s not breaking 5% approval in some polls.
Not amazing to me is the complete lack of competency associated with the Caitlyn Jenner campaign. Hiring former Trump campaign strategist Brad Parscale for services including an $1,800 "staff meeting" at Nobu in Malibu restaurant, and $1,300 for a limousine service doesn’t seem too wise for a campaign that ended July in the red.
She’s got $21,000 available for the closing weeks of the campaign. It costs millions of dollars to run a statewide campaign covering California’s media markets.
More than half (54%) of those polled in the California Emerson College/Nexstar Media Group poll, conducted July 30-August 1 were either undecided or favored a candidate not among the top six Republicans. You can ignore the SurveyUSA poll the UT is selling; a quick examination of the crosstabs shows it's flawed.
Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom will get a break via a pending court decision turning back a challenge to his tying the recall campaign to Trump and Republicans.
His campaign has all the money in the world. Here are the numbers, via NBC News:
More than 200-to-1: That’s the ad-spending advantage that Newsom and supporters have enjoyed over Republicans in the past month, according to data from AdImpact.
Newsom & Co. have spent $5.9 million in advertising from July 1 to Aug. 2, while Republicans and recall backers have spent just $27,500 during that same time period.
And when you look at future ad buys (from Aug. 3 to Sept. 14), Democrats hold a 150-to-1 advantage, $13.3 million to $86,000.
Now we expect those GOP ad numbers to increase over the next six weeks. Still, that’s quite a financial disadvantage in this very expensive state.
The big question is whether or not a mountain of cash can close the enthusiasm gap.
The prospect of a Republican governor appointing a replacement should Senator Diane Feinstein step down should be a powerful motivating factor. Like I said at the start: how does Senate Majority Mitch McConnell Sound to You?
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Ballots will be arriving for every California voter in about two weeks. The decision not to toss them into the recycle bin or put off mailing it back (for free!) can make all the difference in the world.
When your mail-in ballot arrives, what you must do is really simple. Despite the ballot looking impressively large, there are no hard choices about propositions or down ballot candidates you’ve never heard of.
There are two questions, and you only need to answer one.
Question #1 asks if you think Gov. Gavin Newsom should be recalled. That should be a hard NO, even if you think he’s a corporate Democrat or worse.
Question #2 asks you to pick who you’d like to take his place from a long list consisting mostly of people you’ve never heard of and/or are losers. YOU CAN SKIP THIS ONE.
If you want to do more than just vote, there are phone banking and texting opportunities via the local Democratic Party.
Saturdays until election week there’s virtual phone banking event with the SD County Dem party: Sign up mobilize.us/sandiegodems
You can text voters at your convenience http://bit.ly/recalltexting
Don't worry if you've never done that before. When you sign up there is virtual training with a little quiz to make sure you're ready.
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Also, consider this part of the GOP’s legacy. Miller got his start in politics as a regular call-in guest on Larry Elder's radio show.
https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1423087461626904576?s=20
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