Hurricane Hilary Aims at Southern California
Here Come the Stupid Takes on Whether or Not Climate Change Is the Cause
As of 5 am (PDT) Thursday morning Tropical Storm Hilary became Hurricane Hilary as its maximum sustained winds surpassed 75 mph. Maps depicting its probable course show the center of the system will pass to the east of San Diego Monday morning.
The National Weather Service is sure enough about the system’s projected course to have issued probable rainfall totals: Up to 2 inches at the coast, 2.5 in the valleys, and 5-7 in the mountains, with “high potential” for flash flooding.
We’re looking at a historically rare event. There is an incomplete meteorological record of a storm hitting San Diego in 1858 and two near misses with tropical storms El Cordonado (1939) and Jennifer-Katherine (1963).
The cold waters along the California coast and high level steering winds typically guide storms out to sea. Storms that dissipate over Baja California often send their moisture in a northeasterly direction, bringing rain to Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico.
The difference with Hilary is the repeating weather pattern with the “S” shaped Jet Stream, responsible for heat domes over the middle part of the US. Record high temperatures were recorded in cities in Texas and Arizona last month, and this current batch of hot air is expected to move north, impacting cities as far north as Iowa and Minnesota.
Over the next 36 hours (as of Thursday morning) the hurricane is expected to intensify to a category 2 or 3 storm (higher winds, lower barometric pressure) and rather suddenly fall apart early Saturday as it meets colder waters.
Here’s the fun part of weather forecasting: the predictions thus far have been probable. A zig here or a zig there along the storm’s path could send it out to sea. OR it’s forward momentum could mean the moderating factors along the way aren't strong enough to lessen the storm’s intensity.
Here’s Gary Robbins at the Union-Tribune, effectively covering all his bases:
On Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center released a map showing Hilary tracking unusually far north, possibly on a path that could take the system directly into San Diego County. Updated maps released Thursday still show the system keying on Southern California.
“The models could change a lot over the next several days, so the path could change,” said John Suk, the meteorologist-in-charge of the weather service office in Rancho Bernardo. “But this scenario is possible.”
Forecasters issued the scenario on Wednesday afternoon during a video conference call with emergency managers and the news media. The prediction was largely based on data from the National Hurricane Center, which shows Hilary hustling up the coast of Baja California. The weather service said that it might issue a tropical storm watch for San Diego as early as today, something the agency has never done.
I’m guessing that the National Weather Service has hired the former president for assistance with illustrations.
***
Since there is an unusual aspect in the projected approach of Hilary, the lame takes on why San Diego is in the path can be expected to immediately start appearing in local (particularly broadcast) media.
KUSI will have a weather person scaring the crap out of their older viewers, followed by a very serious person assuring viewers that man-made climate change isn’t a factor.
Perhaps San Diego’s beacon of misinformation could get a special appearance by Carl DeMaio, blaming weather conditions on the lack of voter ID laws in California. Or something. Just send him money.
Other stations will run with commentary including assurances that climate change isn’t the cause. Or that it isn’t the ONLY cause.
Hint: Localized weather events are not the same as global climate change.
The ironic part of the usual hasty babble about climate change is that no credible scientist would agree with those claims. Any determination of man-made climate change’s impact on a particular event needs further study, not a knee jerk response.
I’ll give San Diego Axios credit for threading this needle:
Human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, and is also leading to wetter tropical storms and hurricanes.
***
An example of fuzzy headed analysis on climate change can be found at HEATED, a substack newsletter on climate-related stuff, where Emily Atkin challenged ABC News’ headline: “Why Climate Change Can’t Be Blamed for the Maui Wildfires.”
She discovered the scientist whose quote was the basis for the headline also didn’t agree with that assumption, pointing out there was a big BUT ( there were many factors that worsened the complex disaster, and that climate change shouldn’t be the only thing blamed) in the quote.
And she discovered more scientists willing to chime in:
This is awful,” said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania. “Cherry-picking various individuals and making blanket statements like this [are] completely unsupportable.”
In sum, the scientists explained that the headline was technically incorrect. Climate change absolutely can be partially blamed for the severity of the Maui disaster because climate change worsens wildfires, and climate change plays a role in literally all weather events. We just don’t yet know how much blame, because we don’t yet have attribution studies that can tell us that sort of thing.
But more importantly, the article’s framing was a straw man fallacy. It distorted the concern scientists and activists actually have about climate change and extreme weather, which is that climate change worsens disasters; not that it causes them.
ABC News eventually changed the headline, adding the word “entirely.”
I really don’t care if lazy journalists want to blame [insert name of cartoon supervillain]; their misleading and/or incomplete coverage misses the point that the increasing frequency and severity of weather events represents an existential threat to much life on the planet.
A simple timeline graph showing severe events over the past 150 years should be all the education these folks need. Instead, they (and us) are subjected to a dizzying array of claims ultimately funded by the industries that profit from pumping greenhouse gasses and other pollutants into the air.
***
Alright. That’s the end of today’s rant, prompted in no small part by the eight or years I lived in the Caribbean, where near-misses were a fact of life and the inevitable head on hurricane hit would destroy homes, infrastructure, and the economy of the island I loved. (St. Thomas)
I have another hurricane story up my sleeve, but won’t post it unless the dangers pass. It’s called “Organizing a Hurricane Party.”
***
Hair Raising Thursday News
***
Inside the campaign to cancel sex ed Via Popular Information. Just as banning abortion is just the first step to banning birth control, so all the fuss over schools is about imposing a theocratic view on students. A report from the “Moms for Liberty” summit in Philadelphia.
During the session, Schenkoske argued that comprehensive sex ed is “interconnected” and “integrated” with critical race theory (CRT) and social emotional learning (SEL). SEL focuses on developing “critical thinking, emotion management, conflict resolution, decision making, [and] teamwork.” Some SEL concepts, which until very recently were uncontroversial, are likely included in sex ed classes. CRT is a complex theory developed by law professors and taught in higher education settings. There is “little to no evidence that critical race theory itself is being taught to K-12 public school students,” but Schenkoske argued that the “ideas” of CRT are being “incorporated” into classes, including topics like “intersectionality, power and privilege.” (Those concepts are not exclusive to CRT.)
In an April 2022 interview with the Washington Examiner, Schenkoske accused the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of pushing comprehensive sex ed, CRT, and SEL "to create an unholy trinity of left-wing proselytization in today’s classrooms."
***
The Devil Went Down to Georgia Via Joyce Vance. The day Trump gets booked (and weighed!)
When the defendants surrender, they will show up at the Fulton County jail on Rice Street, a facility a friend recently said smelled like “bologna and body odor.” That’s a pretty gentle characterization of the facility, which is currently being investigated by DOJ to determine whether prisoners’ rights are being systematically violated.
When the investigation was announced, the U.S. Attorney in Atlanta, Ryan K. Buchanan said, “The recent allegations of filthy housing teeming with insects, rampant violence resulting in death and injuries, and officers using excessive force are cause for grave concern and warrant a thorough investigation. This investigation is part of our ongoing efforts to ensure that citizens are safe, and their constitutional rights protected, even while they are in custody.”
Although it’s unlikely that Trump or his co-defendants will remain in custody for longer than it takes to process them, it’s ironic that the former president, who was notoriously unconcerned with how police treated criminal defendants, will find himself in a facility whose conditions are so deficient that they warrant federal scrutiny
***
The new monthly homelessness report again shows a crisis growing faster than it can be contained Via the Union-Tribune
That growth has corresponded with many leaders taking a harder line against encampments. San Diego began enforcing its camping ban late last month, Poway launches a similar effort Thursday and Chula Vista may soon follow suit.
And while the problem intersects with a range of issues, including addiction and mental illness, a new nationwide study by the real estate company Home Bay found a “clear correlation between a lack of affordable housing and high rates of homelessness.” That analysis adds to a growing body of research that says expensive cities tend to have more people on the street.
The median price for a house, condo or townhouse in San Diego County recently rose to $835,000.
***