It Ain’t Over ‘til It’s Over, And It’s Over for Voting Rights in the Senate
The For the People Act, the Democrats’ plan for holding back the Republican tide of voter suppression, died on the Senate floor Tuesday, as the question of whether to even consider debating the bill died with a 50-50 vote.
Both parties kept their troops in line. Democrats got to the 50 vote mark via Leader Chuck Schumer promising Sen. Joe Manchin that his proposed amendments would be the first ones considered if debate happened.
Fifty votes was never going to cut it, since 60 votes were needed. Furthermore, not enough Republicans gave any indications that they were open to changing their minds.
There was lots of brave talk by politicians yesterday about how they’re going to keep fighting. Sen. Amy Klobuchar went on MSNBC to announce that the Senate Rules Committee was going on the road, starting with hearings in Georgia.
I get it. Based on polling numbers, passage of S1 or just about any bill addressing voting should be a no-brainer.
A survey of 1,416 registered voters conducted online (June 19-22) found that an astounding 87% of Americans are worried that the United States is becoming less of a democracy (61% very worried, 26% somewhat worried). One-half of Americans view the GOP’s attempts at voter suppression making their way through state legislatures as an attack on American democracy.
What Democrats hoped to achieve with Tuesday’s vote in the Senate was to prove to the American people that Republicans don’t want some people to be able to vote. I don’t know how Leader Schumer thought he could do better than 87%, but bless his soul for trying.
The John Lewis Voting Rights Act, which narrows down its aspirations to simply restore provisions of the original Voting Rights Act struck down by the Supreme Court, hasn’t had its day yet (likely his fall), but I don’t see enough support at this point for it to pass.
With that bill already watered down to meet Sen. Manchin’s objections (by changing enforcement from the Justice Department to the federal courts), there still won’t be enough GOP votes to overcome the filibuster threshold.
Here’s Joan Walsh at The Nation:
After a meeting on Manchin’s proposals last week, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, a staunch voting rights advocate, said Democratic “unity” was crucial. But when The Atlantic’s Russell Berman asked him how they’d get such unity on filibuster reform, he replied, “We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.” It made me think of Selma’s Edmund Pettus Bridge, where John Lewis almost lost his life for voting rights, and wonder how Democrats get Manchin and Sinema to show half that passion and courage.
I’m not sure that party leaders’ performative strategy — we can show Joe and Kyrsten they’re wrong! — will work. But sadly, I haven’t heard a better one so far.
Giving in to more centrist Democrats is, we’re told, part of a strategy to convince them to support changing the filibuster rules, which could be done with 50 votes plus VP Harris. Call me skeptical on that idea, since this arcane procedural rule has been elevated to scripture status, even though the Constitution goes nowhere near the topic.
By all means, go ahead and call Republican Senators, asking them to do the right thing. I just think Sen. Schumer is more right than he knows; the opposition party has no further interest in democracy.
Look no further than Florida for clues as to where the GOP is headed, where the toeing the party line will enable continued funding for higher education.
In his continued push against the “indoctrination” of students, Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday signed legislation that will require public universities and colleges to survey students, faculty and staff about their beliefs and viewpoints to support “intellectual diversity.”
The survey will discern “the extent to which competing ideas and perspectives are presented” in public universities and colleges, and seeks to find whether students, faculty and staff “feel free to express beliefs and viewpoints on campus and in the classroom,” according to the bill.
The measure, which goes into effect July 1, does not specify what will be done with the survey results. But DeSantis and Sen. Ray Rodrigues, the sponsor of the bill, suggested on Tuesday that budget cuts could be looming if universities and colleges are found to be “indoctrinating” students.
https://twitter.com/brooklynmarie/status/1407728051367026690?s=20
Getting marquee legislation through the Senate was a key part of the Democratic Party’s plan to turn the tide in their favor in the 2022 elections. Off year voting tends to favor the party not in control of the executive branch, in large part because the legislative sausage making process takes more than two years.
People get unhappy about stuff not getting done, and THAT is the bottom line here..
At this point the best we can expect from the Senate are some economic and social justice initiatives packaged into a budget reconciliation, something some Republicans will vote for because shutting down the country is bad for business.
So it’s up to President Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to make some noise, at least giving the appearance that Democrats can (or want to) get stuff done.
Look for the Executive Branch to start rolling out executive orders faster than ever.
The President is going right at the GOP strategy of making “violent crime” an issue through measures cracking down on gun stores that don’t follow federal rules, stepping up programs for recently released convicts and providing more support for police departments.
From the Washington Post:
Though overall crime was down last year, according to FBI data, the murder rate rose about 25 percent and violent crime about 3 percent.
“That’s impacting people’s lives, people’s communities, people’s families, people’s neighbors,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in Tuesday’s news briefing, which was dominated by questions about crime. “Of course, they want to hear more and [Biden] wants to share more with the American public about what he’s going to do.”
Crime has become a dominant issue in a slew of local campaigns, most notably the New York mayoral race, where a former police officer with a tough-on-crime posture was seen as the front-runner heading into Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
The House has a bigger task in terms of messaging. While the Democrats can pass bills all they want, they’re mostly not going to make it to the President’s desk.
BUT… the investigative powers of congressional committees can be used as a cudgel to undermine the credibility of Republican obstructionists and those quietly supporting the far right.
Let me caution readers upfront on this: expecting a “miracle” breakthrough with damning information letting the truth to be known (on just about any topic) is a fool’s errand.
The power of these sorts of inquiries lies with their reputational damage; facts aren’t really that important unless they lead to indictments. And even then (remember Epstien’s Florida bust?) they’re unreliable as change agents.
One need look no further than the Presidential candidacy of Hillary Clinton. It matters not that nothing substantive about Benghazi or missing emails surfaced; what matters is that broad swathes of voters were convinced that she was a schemer.
First up should be the January 6 insurrection. As prosecutors are moving up the insurrections' food chain by making deals, they can be expected to eventually target individuals beyond the rabble who actually stormed the Capitol.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is widely expected to announce the formation of a select committee to investigate the events surrounding this attempt at interfering with the electoral process.
Via CNN:
The decision to appoint a select committee to investigate the attack means that House Democrats will channel their various efforts examining the events surrounding January 6 into one place. It was one of several options Pelosi had been considering after Senate Republicans filibustered legislation creating an independent commission that had passed in the House.
The commission is likely to fuel the political brawl that's played out in the House the aftermath of January 6, in which Democrats have charged that Republicans are trying to whitewash the insurrection carried out by supporters of former President Donald Trump. Republicans, meanwhile, have accused Democrats of trying to use the commission and their committee investigations for political gain.
Trump's role in the lead-up to the January 6 attack is sure to be a focus of the select panel, and the committee could look into actions of some House members, too.
There will be other opportunities for investigations, as the dust from the Former Guy’s destruction settles. Anybody playing as many games as he obviously does is going to get caught eventually.
In the meantime, energy needs to start flowing in the direction of electoral battles. As I’ve said all along, every race from dog catcher on up is important.
A quick example will be the 2022 race for California Attorney General. It’s going to be a battle between the progressive approaches, represented by Attorney General Rob Bonta, to prosecutions and the status quo, represented by Sacramento DA Anne Marie Schubert. The big money Independent Expenditure committees are already formed and fundraising.
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And then there’s THIS sort of nonsense...
https://twitter.com/clairecmc/status/1407710538969321479?s=20
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Lead image: Tony Webster via Flickr