It’s Too Soon to Talk About Local 2022 Elections. Really!
It pains me to say this. It really does. I’ve been pinging my sources for about a month, and have discovered that the future of local elections is as clear as mud.
Why?
One word: redistricting.
All the contests for legislative-type positions are essentially on hold, because potential candidates don’t know who they’ll be representing. Everything depends on the release of census information.
Complications arising from pandemic, upgrades to technology with privacy and security protections, along with the Trump administration’s attempt to whiten the results, mean the release of the redistricting data will be delayed until the end of September.
Data including details on race, ethnicity, voting age, housing occupancy status at the census block level – all play into redistricting decisions.
In California, the raw census data is submitted to University of California at Berkeley’s Statewide Database prior to drawing preliminary maps. Those maps are reviewed at public hearings, and then each of the state’s 120 legislative districts, four Board of Equalization districts and an unknown number of congressional districts must approve the changes.
The state Supreme Court has granted the Legislature’s emergency petition for a four-month extension of the California constitution’s mandated deadline, moving it to December 15.
Even this later deadline may not be realistic. The extension granted by the court was based on the Census bureau’s promise to release data by the end of July. The possibility of a mid-February deadline would create conflict for candidates filing paperwork for the 2022 elections.
One bit of good news embedded in all this confusion is that the primary elections in non-presidential years remain in June. Think how bad things could be if Californians were facing March primaries.
The bad news is the possibility of San Diego losing a Congressional district once the numbers are crunched. Should the data indicate California is losing two seats, the second district to go could easily be the 49th, which would be changed to include more Orange County residents.
This explains --in part-- why Congressman Mike Levin (who won handily last time out) is now included on the National Republican Congressional Committee hit list.
Here’s Dan Walters at CalMatters with the low down on the challenges facing the statewide Citizens Redistricting Commission:
The new maps will strongly affect who wields political power in the state for the next decade, and while Democrats will continue to be the dominant party, no matter how they are drawn, the party has no shortage of internal cultural and ideological power struggles.
The dramatic decline in California’s population growth to well under 1% a year will reduce its share of congressional seats and variations within the state will affect the maps in both geographic and demographic terms.
Coastal metropolitan areas have been growing more slowly than inland counties. Comparing 2010 census data with the latest pre-census population estimates from the state Department of Finance reveals that collectively the state’s three most populous counties — Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange — have grown more slowly than the state as a whole.
Meanwhile, the fourth and fifth most populous counties, Riverside and San Bernardino, have grown markedly faster than their coastal neighbors and thus should gain legislative and congressional seats.
Locally, it’s entirely possible that the public input part of the redistricting process will be done via zoom. And there are a bunch of areas that have shifted over to the nonpartisan commission model since the last census.
Via Voice of San Diego:
In 2011, during the last round of redistricting, only the state and city of San Diego had independent redistricting commissions. The San Diego County Board of Supervisors handled the county’s map, and most other jurisdictions throughout the county held at-large elections.
But in the past decade, many jurisdictions – from cities to school districts to fire districts – have shifted to district elections and now will be drawing their lines, said Doug Johnson, president of National Demographics Corp. San Diego County also has an independent redistricting commission for the first time.
Redistricting is the process of redrawing district boundaries to ensure equal voter representation. Independent redistricting commissions are made up of citizens who are supposed to ensure that political interests don’t drive the drawing of the maps. Though commissions vary in their exact makeup and procedures, generally they work with a staff that either they hire or that the jurisdiction provides to get public input on the maps and help finalize them. The county of San Diego, Escondido and Chula Vista will all have independent redistricting commissions for the first time.
The local election most likely to be impacted by redistricting will be the contest for Board of Supervisors District 5. Supervisor Jim Desmond may face a strong challenge by Democrats; but it depends on what small cities get included in the newly drawn map.
Hey folks! Be sure to like/follow Words & Deeds on Facebook. If you’d like to have each post emailed to you check out the simple subscription form on the right side of the front page.
Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com
Lead image via League of Women Voters