Let’s Talk About the Days After November 3rd
I believe in science and math. With one week left before voting ends I’ve read the polls, the cross tabs, and the doomsayers, and am prepared to say Democrats up and down the ballot are going to win. The only question left in my mind is by “how much?’
Michigan and Wisconsin are looking solid for Joe Biden, the next closest state is Pennsylvania.
Every analysis of the race for president says Pennsylvania’s vote is the one to watch in terms of the electoral college. Republicans agree, and that’s why they’re planning on challenging the validity of any votes counted (even if they were cast weeks before) after November 3rd.
Surveys of early voters, by the way, have Biden up by an eye-popping 87-11 margin in the Keystone State. Trump leads remaining voters by 62-35%. The GOP will need a massive turnout to carry the state, and overall sentiment on the two issues that matter most to voters --COVID-19 and the economic future-- doesn’t bode well.
I don’t think it matters. Pennsylvania, schmesylvania, enough other states will go majority Biden to make the GOP strategy irrelevant.
Republicans may have traded a Supreme Court seat for the Presidency; if a second stimulus package had passed, things might look differently.
https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1320901441272373250?s=20
Now Democrats will have to unpack the courts, because as with almost all things Republicans whine about, it’s something (packing the courts) they’ve already done.
It’s going to be a messy post election period, starting with who gets declared to be winning various contests late in the evening of November 3rd. The Associated Press --the news agency much of the media relies upon in such matters-- has already made it clear they’ll err on the side of caution before declaring results.
Please, please, please! be aware of the high probability of social media manipulation during this period. If you see something on Facebook or Twitter that provokes a visceral reaction DON”T share it.
In California, the most recent poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute for Governmental Studies shows Biden setting a record for Democratic margins, beating Trump by 36 points. The only people who will be surprised by this number should be the ones who will declare that they’re leaving the state once the results are in. (Good riddance!)
The polling from UC Berkeley that bothers me took place about a month ago; more than 80% of Californians across the political spectrum believe many Americans will not respect the outcome of this year’s presidential election.
Obviously, not respecting the outcome of the election can mean different things to different people.
I don’t have much respect for the 2016 results (Hillary won the popular vote and lost the electoral college), and have put much of my energy into building a bigger progressive movement to counter Trumpism.
Of more concern are the miscreants who’ve been encouraged by Trump’s unique brand of encouraging acts of terrorism.
His tweet saying “LIBERATE MICHIGAN” led to armed mobs surrounding the state house, and certainly had some role in encouraging the plot to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer. (Those “fine people” also discussed going after Ralph Northam Governor of another state --Virginia--Trump called out)
Letting these types scare people into submissive behavior is something we don’t want to happen. While individuals in law enforcement have most certainly been susceptible to the messaging of these extremists, most agency’s leadership will ultimately remember who’s paying the taxes enabling their existence. (In San Diego, I’d worry about the County Sheriffs and elements of the immigration enforcement agencies.)
Progressives and their allies need to focus on the integrity of the voting process, not Donald Trump, no matter how much he tries to provoke a fight. Walking around downtown with a sign saying F*** Trump may be personally satisfying, but the issue we should be fighting for and organizing around is protecting the votes cast (matter what result) by the majority of the American people.
To that aim, there are folks organizing around responding to whatever conditions exist in the post-election period. Sign up for updates and information at Protect the Results: San Diego to tap into a nationally organized response.
While I’m willing to predict the election results, I’m not willing or able to predict what will happen in the post election period. The groups organizing around this uncertain period are preparing for any eventuality. (Non-violently, of course.) There is safety in numbers, and public outcry may be one option. Again, it just depends on what happens.
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1321042528502689793?s=20
If you have not already mailed your California ballot, please consider taking it to either a drop off point or your polling place. I hate to say it, but we need to be sure about all ballots getting counted, and the administration has done its damnest to hurt the credibility of the postal service.
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Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com
Lead image credit: Ted Eytan via Wikimedia Commons