Looking Backwards, Moving Forward: Cultural and Political Trends to Watch in 2023
By Jim Miller
Last year didn’t end up being as miserable as many pollsters and political pundits had predicted. The “red wave” never crested, and the increasingly fragile guardrails of American democracy largely held despite some efforts to test them.
While this was a relief for those who feared the worst, the reality is that even with the Democrats’ historically solid midterm performance, we are still left with what will soon be a divided government and at least two years of gridlock as we head into 2023. So, what should we expect to see this year as the sigh of relief from the midterms quickly fades into the buildup to the next epic political standoff in 2024?
Here are a few things we’ll likely see at the national, state, and local levels:
Despite all his political and legal troubles, Trump (and his committed base) will not go away: Count on more endless grievance politics and scorched earth as the heart of the Republican Party is rotten to the core. As Doug Porter has noted in this space and folks like Paul Krugman have nationally, a DeSantis challenge will not mean moving away from conspiracy nonsense, absurd yet dangerous culture wars, and a continued flirtation with fascism in both style and content. This will be aided by key segments of the billionaire class and the rightwing echo chamber. We are not living through a phase; something is fundamentally broken in our politics and culture.
The assault on education from K-12 to college will continue to be a crucial front in the culture wars: Whether it be anti-vax madness 2.0, book banning, or demagoguery about the latest racial or gender panic, the right here in California and across the country will continue to focus on making our schools and colleges a battleground. This non-stop crusade will only exacerbate the teacher shortage at the K-12 level and intensify the enrollment crises in colleges. Elite universities will still thrive as second tier and community colleges suffer, deepening an already class-based divide that is pouring fuel on the fire of American political and cultural polarization.
The national Democratic party will stop trying to do big things because they can’t: The peak pandemic period and its aftermath provided an opportunity to get big things done, and we ended up getting less than was needed to meet the multiple crises we face regarding climate, economic inequality, and public health. We can thank the filibuster for this along with Senators Manchin and Sinema, whose obstructionism in favor of moneyed interests should live in infamy.
Bottom line: as good as things like the infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act are, they do not come close to meeting the moment. Thus, the new climate reality is that we will not meet the goals necessary to prevent many dire outcomes even as we may avert the most apocalyptic ones, forcing us into a new world of conflict over who the winners and losers will be in a permanently changed world.
Additionally, while there was much talk about finally helping working people, the Democratic majority failed, yet again, to provide any game-changing policy to help unions, address economic inequality, or even ensure that we would not repeat the same errors that made the Covid-19 pandemic far more deadly than it needed to be, particularly for underserved communities.
Now, with a gridlocked Congress, the political calculus for the national Democratic party will necessitate them focusing more on protecting existing rights and playing defense on multiple fronts. Moving the needle forward any further on big issues will have to wait. This shifts the real action to the state and local levels in places where the ground may be more fertile.
Blues states and cities (like ours) will offer hope and face new challenges: In San Diego, the election brought an uncontested City Council majority for Democrats, and the passage of a range of local measures helped finally transform the political landscape away from the anti-tax, anti-labor, and anti-density legacies of our city. But with this new day comes the challenge to seriously address a host of issues from homelessness to climate, to affordability and more. If our city government (and others like it across the country with big Democratic advantages) fails to deliver, then they’ll have more to worry about than the ravings of Bill Walton. Look for the old fault lines based on class, race, gender, age, and geography to re-emerge in new clothing.