No Touch 2020 Political Campaigns: Ideas for a Post Pandemic World
Among the activities already changed, probably forever, in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic are political campaigns, both issue and candidate oriented.
As National Review contributing editor Jonah Goldberg noted this week, “...after this is all over, political scientists, like so many others, will be writing about B.C. and A.C. — before coronavirus and after.”
The single most powerful tool in organizing tactics, personal contact with voters, is gone for this election cycle.
It doesn’t help matters that the political and economic landscape is completely unstable; tapping into voter sentiment or even making impressions are daunting tasks in an environment where perceptions are shifting daily.
Just about everybody’s top choice, regardless of leanings, for campaigning in 2020 are digital experiences, which have some obvious limitations.
From NPR:
Candidates are facing a series of challenging choices, said Amanda Litman, a co-founder of Run For Something, which supports first-time candidates. One of those is fulfilling the signature requirements to appear on the ballot to begin with.
"If you can't leave your home then you definitely shouldn't be going up to strangers asking them to sign something to help you get on the ballot in the first place," she said. "Challenge No. 2, we know that for these local candidates, for them the most effective way for them to win an election is to knock doors and personally connect with voters. Obviously that's not happening."
Instead, they're turning to things like virtual phone banks, text messages and digital advertising — in short, any tool at their disposal.
Some groups, like Indivisible, in league with VoteFWD, are combining digital and old school communication to reach the electorate.
I’m told there’s some science (multiple randomized trials) behind this strategy, and that's a good thing, since the value of many of these online tactics are based in intuition, often coming from the consultants selling access to platforms or software.
The grass roots organization has launched a nationwide letter-writing campaign to reach voters in key states before the 2020 election to maximize impact and increase turnout. Using customizable letter templates, volunteers are directed toward contacting historically low-propensity voters with encouragement to participate in the process.
Software is used to generate mailing lists, and the campaign seeks to maximize its impact by having participants send personalized letters one week before the election date.
They’re encouraging groups to hold digital letter-writing parties so Indivisibles can continue connecting with their communities but from the safety of their own homes.
Organizers with the group are running “virtual training camps” with a variety of topics including building community via social media, deep canvassing during social distancing, and building trust with underserved groups.
Candidates for elected office are scrambling to rethink their outreach.
Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar has gone so far as to rename his campaign, calling it the CA-50 Task Force.
Volunteers and staff are now focusing on helping families and small businesses find the resources currently available to them during the coronavirus crisis. A regularly-updated Resource Guide has become their primary outreach vehicle.
This expands upon guidance by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in a memo last week offering guidance to candidates.
“Remind followers through your actions that you take this seriously and would be a calm voice through crisis,” the House Democratic political arm said in the guidance obtained by The Associated Press.
It urged candidates to discuss the significance of health care access and affordability — issues that helped the party capture House control in 2018. It suggested asking voters, “How are you doing?” and “Do you need anything” during phone calls.
All campaigns are grappling with the likelihood of increasing challenges when it comes to fundraising.
Small donors are likely to be impacted by the downsizing of business operations large and small. Government and institutional employees are fearful of the impact of budget cuts driven by declining tax revenues. Bigger donors have seen their stock portfolios decline in value.
Organized labor, long a (mostly Democratic Party) resource for both volunteers and money, is redirecting its resources toward supporting members out of work.
Already campaigns are trying to bundle virtual fundraising with celebrity encounters, along with offering experiences that might be considered unique in a social distancing environment. One campaign (not in San Diego) is looking into offering an opportunity to wander through museums or even a zoo sans the maddening crowds.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden staged a “virtual fireside chat,” hosted by Silicon Valley venture capitalist Jed Katz, presumably targeting wealthy donors who would normally be invited for social events.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has hosted roundtables and even an online rally with performers Neil Young and Jim James.
The fact is, as the Washington Post’s Robin Givhan has pointed out, neither candidate has been able remake themselves into the sort of persona capable of keeping otherwise not committed followers eyeballs focused on the screen.
Biden went mush-mouthed at times, all dressed up and standing behind a lectern in what appeared to be a living room. Sanders yelled at times (indoor voice!), shuffled papers, and clearly needs advice on lighting.
This new form of campaigning is hard. But it’s even more challenging and frustrating for voters. They can’t buttonhole a politician at an event and demand answers to their specific concerns; they can’t protest at a rally. They can’t look these men — ah, yes, only men — in the eye and see how they bear up.
But if the candidates fully embrace live-streamed conversations, they can potentially reveal the best of themselves. In a room without moderators or time keepers, without commercial interruptions, what can they communicate at a time when there’s an urgent need for leaders who speak in a way that is informed, decisive, honest and empathetic?
The candidates are at home. Every virtual event is an invitation to stop in and stay for a bit. Make folks glad they came.
Even local campaigns need to step up their game when it comes to hosting online events, starting with jazzing up what appears in the background in visually transmitted activities.
I’ve already discovered that Zoom gatherings can be about as interesting as watching grass grow unless there are clear rules about how to behave (and people remembering to use the mute button).
There are new norms to be considered on every level of campaigning, as Clare Malone observed at FiveThirtyEight.com:
Though he dropped out of the presidential race, Pete Buttigieg demonstrated a creative solution for earned media coverage recently. Last week, he guest-hosted “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” using the opening monologue to rib Trump, promote an emergency COVID-19 response bill, and generally cultivate his image as a smart, likeable guy.
The Buttigieg campaign was ahead of the curve in its earned media strategy — the digital-native fluency of the first millennial presidential candidate can’t be underrated. It remains to be seen whether the septuagenarians still running for president will prove to be as creative. Their political futures may depend on it.
Non-incumbent candidates in down ballot contests will be especially challenged when it comes to what the pros call “earned media,” namely face time in the media based on their activities.
As one local campaign consultant told me:
Media is already shying away from covering "politics" rather than the look that we are all coming together for the crisis. This is going to help incumbents, and candidates with the resources to get their message out and leave grassroots candidates behind. They will have less of an opportunity to break through the noise.
Just about everybody I communicated with in the course of researching this story agreed that messaging used in the past is now worthless, given the public’s obsession with the current crisis.
NIMBY v YIMBY, for instance in the Mayor's race, no longer matters. It's who is going to be able to lead a city where X number of people are dead and X number are out of work and X number of businesses are closed and X number of tenants can't pay their rent.
I would expect we’ll see even more direct mail, since printers are considered essential businesses. It’s too bad some smart campaign can’t figure out a way (besides getting word from the registrar that somebody’s already voted) to offer a junk mail blocking service in turn for support.
While an array of non-contact campaigning choices are available, the reality of campaign workers staying motivated and on point poses yet another challenge. A big part about what makes elections exciting is the camaraderie and the desire to be seen as an achiever.
The same sort of creativity involved in motivating donors will need to be used as motivation for volunteers. Campaigns will need to think beyond gift cards and dining experiences to keep enthusiasm high.
We haven’t been in this sort of anxiety-producing national situation in my lifetime, but looking at the past, those candidates succeeding have been ones communicating in sincere, optimistic, and informative ways.
While the internet may have changed how campaigns approach voters, we’re still bound to the past when it comes to issues of trust.
As a paper from the Brookings Institute said:
A recent Pew Research study found television and the internet in a close race for how Americans get their news. Forty-nine percent of adults relied on television and 43 percent on either web news sites or social media.
Internet technology such as tweets and targeted media have already reshaped political campaigning. Broadcasters remain the leader in the wide distribution of political information, as illustrated by how they receive the most political advertising expenditures.
Relying on the internet to close the communications gap is a mixed blessing, however. Unfortunately, the early hope that the internet would help bring us together has been undone by a social media business plan that relies on driving us apart. Whether such a construction can help protect the democratic electoral process is questionable.
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Why I’m writing these essays.
It’s my opinion, and the view of many others, that things will never be the same again.
Let’s have a conversation about what that could mean from a glass half-full perspective.
I’m not interested in promoting ideas with no connection to reality (sorry, some form of capitalism will continue to exist, at least for a while); I’m looking for the seeds of change embedded or suggested by the needed focus on what is the greater good.
The coronavirus pandemic has had an economic and social impact on the U.S. ranking with the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, either World War, or the Great Depression. A path to what once passed as normalcy, despite what economic and political leaders would wish upon us, does not and should not exist.
Over the coming days (and probably weeks) I’ll be crafting essays building on the observable dismantling of the old normal with suggestions for what could be. The topics I’m researching include: retail, labor power, education, political campaigns, food, healthcare, and leisure.
I’m open to publishing outside essays and/or suggestions (drop me a line!) by readers on these and similar topics, so if the urge strikes, please reach out to me. Just remember, what I’m trying to do here is to posit a pragmatic approach to what could and should be, based on observable events.
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Part One: Ideas and Plans for a Humane Post Pandemic World
Part Two: The End of Retail As We Know It
Part Three: November Looks Different Now
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Ugh…
https://twitter.com/histoftech/status/1246106050954133504?s=20
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