Nobody (Old) for President in 2024

We’re a couple of months away from the start of mail-in voting for the midterm elections, but that hasn’t stopped media outlets from speculating on prospects for President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald Trump running in 2024.

These stories are (partly) based on polling showing partisans on both sides of the aisle are less-than-thrilled about their party’s standard bearers repeating the 2020 contest. 

A majority of voters say neither man should make a White House bid in 2024, according to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll.

For Trump, 48% of polled voters say he should “definitely not” run again while 13% say he “probably” should not campaign. Biden’s numbers are even worse, with 46% saying he should “definitely not” run again while 18% say he “probably” shouldn’t. 

The primary issue with both men’s prospects isn’t ideology or performance (although those are factors), it’s age.

 To be clear, when presented with the potential choice of Biden vs Trump on the 2024 ballot, those polled are picking the incumbent, 44% to 41%.

The New York Times in particular has been beating the ageism drum when it comes to Joe Biden, with a major story on July 9 and a column by Michelle Goldberg today.

• Mr. Biden is not the first president to confront questions of age. The issue came up repeatedly under President Donald J. Trump, who is four years younger. Mr. Trump’s diminished vocabulary, tendency to meander, sometimes incoherent remarks, light office schedule and struggles to process information led critics to conclude that he was in decline.

• At one point, he had trouble lifting a glass of water to his lips and stepping down a ramp, and he also made an unexplained trip to the hospital. By the end of his term, he was boasting about passing a cognitive test meant to detect signs of dementia. If he runs again in 2024, it could be a contest between two men who would serve in their 80s.

Here’s Goldberg:

• There’s a problem here that goes beyond a shortage of presidential speeches and media appearances, or even Biden himself. We are ruled by a gerontocracy. Biden is 79. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is 82. The House majority leader, Steny Hoyer, is 83. The Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, is 71. Often, it’s not clear if they grasp how broken this country is.

• They built their careers in institutions that worked, more or less, and they seem to expect them to start working again. They give every impression of seeing this moment, when the gears of government have seized and one party openly schemes against democracy, as an interregnum rather than a tipping point. Biden’s Democratic critics come from different places on the political spectrum — some are infuriated by his centrism, others worried by his listlessness. What links most of them is desperation for leaders who show urgency and ingenuity.

The stories about Democrats' concern are framed around concerns that the President’s low approval ratings will serve as a drag on down ballot candidates.

I have noticed a distinct tendency for these pundits to ignore or downplay the Supreme Court’s Roe decision. Given that Nancy Pelosi raised $80 million for the Democratic party in the aftermath of that ruling, I’d say abortion will be a factor come November.

Publications that have built their brand around the meme of “Dems in Disarray,” namely The Hill and Politico, are almost gleeful about midterm prospects.

Here’s the lede from The Hill’s Doomsday Political Scenario Takes Shape for Democrats:

• The midterm election doomsday scenario for Democrats is becoming clearer, scarier, and more real as inflation and gas prices remain stubbornly high and dissatisfaction with President Biden is through the roof.  

• Democrats are seeing their chances of retaining the House slimmer than ever, with both history and the dreary political environment working against them. In the Senate, where the party had hoped strong swing state candidates could help save the majority, fears are also growing. 

Google “Politico Joe Biden’s Age” and you’ll see page after page of stories dating back to 2017, almost all of which purport to address his advancing age. I’ll skip the quote from Politico; it’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

Donald Trump’s problems are growing. A North Carolina rally (tickets $9 to $3955)scheduled for this weekend has been canceled as the former president and his family are set to testify as part of the New York Attorney General’s investigation into tax fraud. 

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is presenting testimony before a grand jury in what prosecutors call "a multi-state, coordinated plan" by the Trump campaign to influence the results of the November 2020 election in Georgia and elsewhere.

More importantly, the hearings by the January 6 House Select Committee are having an impact. Polling released this morning shows two thirds of voters overall believe Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election and claimed the election was fraudulent without evidence.

What is really interesting about this survey is the 44% of Republicans who say Trump lied about the election results, up seven points in the last two weeks. (Unfortunately, 60% of Republicans say he’s not responsible for the insurrection.)

The result of all this bad news is that Trump has accelerated his planning for a 2024 run at the top job.

From the New York Times:

• Republicans are bracing for Donald J. Trump to announce an unusually early bid for the White House, a move designed in part to shield the former president from a stream of damaging revelations emerging from investigations into his attempts to cling to power after losing the 2020 election.

• While many Republicans would welcome Mr. Trump’s entry into the race, his move would also exacerbate persistent divisions over whether the former president is the party’s best hope to win back the White House. The party is also divided over whether his candidacy would be an unnecessary distraction from midterm elections or even a direct threat to democracy.

From CNN:

• Republican leaders are trying to send a not-so-subtle signal to Donald Trump these days: Do NOT announce for president before the November midterm elections.

• "Yeah, I think we'd like to just kind of keep the accelerator down and push hard into November," Sen. John Thune, the second-ranking Republican in the chamber, said Monday. "I think we've got, you know, the issues set and everything the political landscapes, environment's favorable. And I think the fewer disruptions obviously, the better, but, you know, I don't have any control over what he may or may not do or when he may do it."

• The message is clear: Don't screw this up for us.

History shows that Donald Trump is going to do what’s best for Donald Trump. 

Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com