Not Trump Emerges as Victor in Super Tuesday Voting
Super Tuesday was more decisive than I thought it would be in the race for the Democratic nomination for president. Instead of a mixed bag of results with no clear direction, former Vice President Joe Biden emerged from the shadow of a mediocre campaign to be a contender.
Last night gave Biden the first state primary victory ever over three presidential campaign cycles, and when it is all said and done, he and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders will be about even in terms of convention delegates.
Since California prefers quality vote counting over grist for breaking news announcements on cable TV, I’ll hold off for a day or two before diving in the analysis on state and local contests. Suffice it to say that most of the interesting contests involve jockeying for a second place pass to the general election.
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders continued to win delegates in the west with a coalition of young, Latino, and Asian-American voters giving him a substantial lead in the overall vote in California. Aside from Biden, Sanders was the only candidate likely to gain delegates in all Super Tuesday states, ensuring he remains a strong contender through the rest of the primary season.
Billionaire Mike Bloomberg spent a half-billion dollars to keep Rep. Tulsi Gabbard from winning a majority of American Samoa’s delegates. This morning he dropped out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden. The word is that he’ll keep much of his campaign staff on to promote the Democratic party in the general election.
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1235204550140866561?s=20
Senator Elizabeth Warren had a disappointing night, failing to win enough delegates to justify a strategy of hanging in the race to be available as the consensus choice should there be a brokered Democratic convention. As of this writing I’m hearing her staff is being gently urged to consider their next career move.
https://twitter.com/markos/status/1235041316590911488?s=20
I have four observations about Tuesday’s vote totals:
It ain’t over ‘till it’s over. Votes are still being counted and a million unforeseen events could change the course of the presidential contest. Remember, just a month ago Mayor Pete Buttigieg was the hot candidate.
Biden’s vote totals in early states, along with a surge in turnout, tell me voters were most concerned with getting rid of Trump. All the debates, town halls, and new/improved voter turnout tactics that were supposedly making the difference didn’t do the trick. Biden’s campaign was, at best, mediocre. He had little money. He constantly gaffed in live interviews. He was smeared with the Trump tar brush of scandal. It didn’t matter.
The Sanders campaign’s expanded electorate strategy has yet to manifest itself. Not a single state saw an increase in young voters' share of the electorate on Super Tuesday, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research and sponsored by several of the television networks. Exit polls showed only about 1 in 8 voters were between the ages of 18 and 29 years old; nearly two-thirds were 45 or older, and about 3 in 10 were 65 or older.
Sanders voters think changing the way things work is crucial. Biden voters wanted Trump out as the first priority. The thinking is that, if Democrats can come away with a trifecta in November, a President Biden would sign most if not all of the progressive legislation a Democratic legislative branch would send his way.
For me, the biggest mistake a Biden administration could (and likely will) make would be a failure to insist on consequences for those individuals who have broken the law during the past four years.
https://twitter.com/AndyCohenSD/status/1235080628984352775?s=20
I happen to think the Sanders people are right about the need to address the fundamental systemic issues that gave us the Cult of Trump. I also happen to think that Bernie’s “outsider” shtick worked against him as the Democratic contest began consolidating. At this point his campaign needs to be building bridges, not burning them.
The Trump campaign is now sending out messaging saying the Democratic “establishment” is trying to force “socialist” Bernie Sanders out, so “Sleepy Joe” Biden can run on a “socialist” Democratic platform.
Screw those people. Let’s let the voters decide.
It’s effectively a Biden-Sanders contest now. I think people should work for their candidate. Leave the trash talking to the Trumpanistas and their comrades in Moscow.
Anybody saying they won’t vote for Not-Trump in the general election needs to understand that change in a democracy (or not) rarely comes all at once. And on those rare occasions when it does, disappointment follows.
https://twitter.com/LorenaSGonzalez/status/1235259244678483968?s=20
I have said it before and I’ll say it again. I’m voting for the Democrat in November.
But Her Emails!
Surprise, surprise, surprise….
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1235231586670579713?s=20
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Lead image via Pixabay