Presidential Politics: 2024-Style

None-of-the-above isn't an option

I wish I could feel excitement in the air for the coming week in electoral politics; President Joe Biden is declaring for 2024 and ex-president Donald Trump is going to trial. Oh well, let me bring you up to speed.

The incumbent President has some kinda cool announcements this week about campaign staffing. The former guy will be hearing (It’s not clear if he’ll attend in person) accusations about his history with women in a lawsuit alleging rape brought by writer E. Jean Carroll. 

At this point, according to polling, the one thing that a majority of Americans agree on is that they’d like to see two different names in the 2024 general election for president. It’s also true that this same majority can’t name a candidate who they’d like to see at the top of the ticket.

President Joe Biden is formally announcing his candidacy for re-election on Tuesday, four years to the day from when he threw his hat in the ring for 2020. Stories in the media are casting doubt on the date, but this is the nascent campaign trying to play up the suspense.

The news will come via release of a video filmed over two days at Biden’s Rehoboth Beach vacation home.

His re-election campaign will contrast to Biden’s low profile in 2020, a strategy brought on by  the spread of COVID-19 causing havoc to most aspects of American life. Star-studded events will happen this time around, but some will incorporate a live audience; a real contrast with the Trump campaign will be provided by the array of talent willing to show up for the incumbent.

(Let’s face it; Mike Lindell, Kid Rock, and the kid who managed to skate on charges arising from his Ar-15 attack on a protest march just don’t have appeal beyond the MAGA faithful, which amounts to roughly one third of the electorate.)

There will be traditional campaign stops at diners, factories and union halls with handshakes, selfies, and crowds of people. The risk here will be that any gaffes will provide an opportunity for the GOP to pounce on Biden’s age.

Via Reuters:

• "We don't need fire and brimstone. We don't need rah rah rallies," said Democratic strategist Joe Lestingi. "We need the strength and conviction of our values and a steadiness not to move on them."

• Biden, he said, would provide that steadiness.

• "I think he'll get out more," Lestingi said, praising Biden's skill at traditional "retail" politics. "If you get an opportunity to be with him in a small intimate setting, he can make a real big difference."

Biden will play up accomplishments from his first two years, draw a sharp contrast with Republican policies he deems extreme, and brush off worries about his age. 

Whereas Trump will play the fear factor, the President will be focused on showing how his administration is implementing massive new infrastructure, technology and climate laws, while portraying Republicans as in the grip of the far right. Biden has been notably successful at passing sweeping legislation, on everything from climate to infrastructure, especially given his narrow congressional majorities.

With extensive research on the political and media landscape in tow, the president’s political advisers plan a far more aggressive social media  approach than in 2020 with a group of volunteers who will share digital content on social networks like TikTok and messaging apps like WhatsApp (where political advertising is not allowed).

Right out of the gate will be a formal announcement of Julie Chavez Rodriguez as campaign manager. DC insiders know her as a senior adviser/assistant to the president and director of the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs.

The perception of Biden’s choice for this role by folks outside the beltway starts with the fact that she’s the granddaughter of Cesar Chavez, along with being one of the highest-ranking Latino officials in West Wing history.

The President will also have the advantage of smooth sailing during the primary season.

To date, the announced challengers are Marianne Williamson, whose aura isn’t appealing beyond a small subset of voters, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a candidate encouraged by Steve Bannon to run by leveraging the family name, promoting his anti-vaccine screed, and sowing (they hope) chaos on the left. The two candidates together will be unlikely to accumulate tallies above single digits.

From the New York Times:

• Skating to a second nomination was not always guaranteed. Mr. Biden, as the incumbent president, was obviously the prohibitive favorite. But people close to the White House have been surprised at the speed with which the full spectrum of the party has gone from hand-wringing about Mr. Biden to almost unanimous acclamation, at least in public.

***

HAHAHA—LOLOLOLOL

Tucker Carlson and Fox News have parted ways.

****

Republicans have a crowded field of announced and wannabe candidates for president. At this point, it would appear that ex-president Trump is the front runner. 

He’s facing all kinds of trouble besides the rape lawsuit, including a national security investigation over documents and a probable criminal case in Georgia.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been posturing in a manner leading people to assume he will be a candidate for the White House. He made the rounds in DC recently, looking for legislators who would back him, only to be stonewalled by most of his state’s delegation, many of whom are openly supporting Trump.

The ex-president has, in my opinion, already shoveled enough dirt to bury DeSantis’ candidacy. As former Obama advisor David Axelrod told the columnist Maureen Dowd at the New York Times,  

• “If they’re going to get into a food fight, Trump always comes with more food.”

What the herd of elephants trailing DeSantis are hoping for is some turn in legal events connected with the former president hurting his candidacy enough to give them viability. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but his primary supporters are a rigid bunch, unlikely to be swayed by anything they don’t see on Republi-media.

From the Associated Press:

• Jury selection is set to start Tuesday in the case filed by former advice columnist E. Jean Carroll, who says Trump raped her in a luxury New York department store dressing room in the 1990s.

• Trump, who is unlikely to attend the trial, has called the accusations “a complete con job.” Carroll, who is seeking unspecified damages, casts the case as a #MeToo-inspired quest for accountability from the epitome of prominent men.

While this case should be good for a few headlines, anybody who’s watched Trump in the past already knows he is a pig. I hope the jury awards significant damages; I know he’ll appeal it and/or will refuse to pay.

My unlikely pick for a strong GOP candidate should Trump self-destruct (a guy can hope) is South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. He’s a nobody outside the political world, who just happens to fit into the party of Lincoln’s ‘bootstrap’ myth.

From the Washington Post:

• Mr. Scott, the son of a single mother and the grandson of a man forced to drop out of elementary school to pick cotton, has made his compelling personal story a feature of his public speeches and interviews. He often mentions his background to highlight a rise he believes would only be possible in America.

• “It’s a blessing to come from a state like South Carolina, where a kid who grows up in a single-parent household mired in poverty can one day even think about being president of the United States,” he told reporters on Friday. “Only made in America is my story.”

Unlike many little-known candidates, Sen. Scott has a war chest totaling $21.8 million, with billionaires like Larry Ellison saying they're willing to go the distance with Scott if he decides to run.

Policy-wise, Scott’s agenda would find support from far right elements in the party. He says as president he would sign any conservative pro-life agenda presented to him by Congress. The thing differentiating him from the pack is that he smiles while spouting this crap.

Questions about the future of women’s healthcare represent a very real threat to the Republican Party, especially with strident anti-abortion groups saying the next step is an attack on birth control. There were races in the midterm elections where women’s reproductive rights swayed voter decisions, and the issue isn’t going away.

State GOP groups are frantically trying to drum up fear against trans individuals and drag queens (not the same) and packaging these causes with other issues into a “woke” agenda for people to be afraid of.

Where pro-abortion groups are having success in getting citizen’s initiatives on the ballot, Republicans are trying to rig the game. In Ohio, they’re trying to sneak in their own initiative raising the bar for passage of future measures by putting it before voters in August, where turnout is typically abysmal.

From the New York Times:

• Republican-led legislatures in five other states are leading similar efforts to block citizen-led measures. The North Dakota legislature this month approved a bill boosting the signature requirement for proposed constitutional amendments and requiring them to win approval in both primary and general elections.

• And in Arkansas, after voters last fall soundly rejected a constitutional amendment proposed by the legislature stiffening the requirements to get a measure on the ballot, the legislature simply passed new requirements as state law. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders signed the law last month.

There is no partisan contest anywhere that won’t be important in 2024. It really does come down to whether or not we end up with an authoritarian political system. Can’t stand Biden? Fine, strut your stuff all you want on social media, but do something positive for causes and candidates who more closely align with your views. And while nobody’s looking, sneak in a vote for Biden if he’s the nominee. I won’t tell.

Today’s Firehose of News Stories That Kept Me Up at Night

Rightwing Edgelords Are the Real Threat to National Security Via Vice: (I didn’t know what an edgelord was, either. Short answer: a social media braggart)

• …. last week it was revealed that perhaps the most damaging unauthorized disclosure of U.S. intelligence since Wikileaks, wasn’t laid at the hands of some “woke warrior” but apparent Discord edgelord and national guardsman Jack Teixeira, highlighting what ideological beliefs might actually pose a threat to the U.S. government.

Sacklers Gave Millions to Institution That Advises on Opioid Policy Via The New York Times. The bastards making this crap were busy making sure nobody got in the way of their “marketing” efforts.

The Teixeira classified leaks story keeps getting worse Via Daily Kos:

• I wonder if Marjorie Taylor Greene is still defending Teixeira as a victim of the Biden regime; even Lindsey Graham can’t swallow that.

The ‘Tennessee 3’ saga highlights the GOP retreat into Fortress MAGA Via The Washington Post.

• Yet this retreat into Fortress MAGA faces a problem: Whenever state-level Republicans undertake another reactionary lurch, it often goes national in a big way. Attention has poured down on everything from insanely broad book bans to shockingly harsh proposed punishments for abortion to anti-transgender crackdowns with truly creepy implications.

• If the adage was “all politics is local,” we can now say that “all local politics is in danger of going viral.” And the more onerous the use of state power in these situations, the more attention it gets.

• Tennessee illustrates the point: If Republicans hadn’t sought to expel the Tennessee 3, you might never have heard of them. As commentator Charlie Sykes puts it, Republicans both “look horrible” and have turned the Tennessee 3 into national “superstars.”

The Surprising Geography of Gun Violence Via Politico Magazine. As promised, it is surprising. And this story gives an idea of why things are the way they are in various parts of the country.

A billionaire-backed, right-wing lobbying effort is behind bringing back child labor in red states: report Via Raw Story

• While far-right conspiracy groups accuse Democrats of trafficking children, red states are doing their own version of trafficking children to pick crops and work in slaughterhouses and meat-packing plants.

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