“Putin is kind of a Bad Ass”

This was a quote from a friend. He doesn’t love Putin, and he’s not a Republican (or Democrat). And it is a sentiment that exists quietly in many among us. I can even say, at moments, I can see why.

This statement, or variations on it, tell a story of our own view of power, leadership, and respect. A reverence, or at least admiration for those who present the appearance of strength. Who lead through forcefulness and brushing aside annoying dissent. We just went through a four year demonstration that showed our own view of power, is no that much different than totalitarian states we regularly criticize. Our quiet admiration of this style is a manifestation of our fears, insecurities and desire for a simpler world.

The style is one we typically fall for when it comes to leadership archetypes. A mix of hyper masculinity and “charisma” that includes a lack of empathy, disdain for rules or norms and ruthless pursuit of goals no matter the costs. In fact, even Democrats will talk wistfully of Republican’s ability to “fall in line” behind such leaders. It taps into an innate “me first” view that manifests most when we no longer trust in the systems that sustain us. An invitation to individualism (distinct from populism) that feeds on our fears and hopelessness. It is hardly a wonder it has rooted so well in Russia, but disappointing to see so strong here.

The problem is that this image is mostly manufactured. Whether it’s Putin bare chested riding a horse or Trump indulging in other bro-shit. Putin in reality is an alcoholic, and narcissist. He’s actually lost control. Tactically gifted, strategically a mess (remind you of anyone?). Managed to paint himself into a box and couldn’t figure a face saving way out.

So he will make others scramble to try and find it for him, and until then, massive loss of life will follow. Of course in Putin’s case, this was never about his country’s security, that is laughable. Are we to believe at the same time in a man so fearless and cocked sure of himself, while also shivering at a handful of bases and missile systems scattered across mostly docile former Soviet states?

His security is underwritten by his nuclear arsenal (the second largest in the world next to ours). And he knows this. NATO was an annoyance to him, but only an excuse for his larger objective. He was actually losing his grip on former Soviet nations. Belarus was just the latest in a string of countries, who’s population had grown tired of oligarchs and corruption. They looked over at Ukraine, Poland, etc. and saw it didn’t have to be that way. Meanwhile in Russia, its economy was largely propped up by fossil fuels, weapons exports and becoming a safe haven for black markets (none of which really benefit ordinary Russians).

This is about fear, which is Putin’s only meaningful leadership tool. This war is to serve as his object lesson to all the countries near him, to show them that fealty and subjugation is their only future. He will not stop at Ukraine. Because he needs the golden geese around him to lay more eggs for his oligarchs. So he will choke them, to get them to lay.

It won’t work, though. Choked geese lay crappy eggs. He lives in fear that someday, the geese will gang up on him. He’s not a bad ass, he’s a drunken coward. With an arsenal of the most deadly weapons known to man, and he’s actually lost control.

The presumption of modern global security was that nuclear weapons would always rest in sane hands. Or at least within a state that could adequately cuff the hands of a deranged leader (thinking of Trump here). Europe now sees plainly, that to engage further economically with Putin and Russia (or its lackeys) is to empower them with their dependence. So they will need to delink from him. Which will be hard in the short term (and hard for us as well). But it is the only way. Putin is an ass, and he is bad (perhaps even Hitler bad or worse). But he is most definitely not a bad ass.

One question that will loom large, and probably unanswered, is what we will do with the deadly toys littered around the world? Arsenals, half of which are in the hands of similarly deranged and fearful “bad ass” leaders, or states that could easily lapse into instability. Especially, if we in America continue to cast even mildly doting eyes at such leaders in 2022 and 2024.

Timothy P. Holmberg