Recall Roundup--Effort to Unseat Campbell Flops; Newsom's Cruisin'
The campaign to recall San Diego City Councilmember Jen Campbell has fallen short. Valid signatures from 14,421 registered voters in District 2 were needed.
The Committee Supporting the Recall of Jennifer Campbell tried to spin their failure as coming close, saying they had “over 10,000” signatures in hand, but the reality is they would have needed roughly 17,000 names to survive an audit. So, no, it wasn’t close.
Let me say upfront that I think Dr. Campbell needs to either retire or be defeated in 2022. She’s been tone deaf on issues important to her constituents, and is representative of old school politics in an era where we need progressives on the council who walk the walk.
None-the-less, the recall movement was a waste of time and energy. Lots of my progressive friends gave lip service to the concept, but a movement only capable of gathering 139 supporters on Twitter and 314 Likes on Facebook wasn’t resonating with enough folks to make a difference.
Because the group couldn’t or didn’t say what they were for, voters were really being asked if they thought things would get better without the incumbent. Many were more concerned about things like the impacts of a pandemic.
The recall committee’s concession statement admitted that low name recognition was an issue. The issues they said necessitated a recall, namely her post-election support for a (tentative) deal with the vacation home industry and a probably-not-going to-happen redevelopment of the Midway District, weren’t tangible enough to motivate the kind of anger/disappointment needed for success.*
(*I say the deal is tentative because the regulations and fees for vacation rentals have yet to be announced. And the industry has already proven they have enough muscle to bully the council. A failure by the Faulconer administration to recognize the impact of the Surplus Land Act may undo Midway/Sports Arena plans) )
I’m not saying these problems aren’t real; I’m saying her decision to flip on these issues (from her campaign positions) wasn’t a big enough deal. “Who’s Jen Campbell?” was a common reaction to signature gatherers efforts.
And let’s face the facts. In the real world, recalling Campbell wasn’t going to undo what was already (potentially) done. Without a path forward, namely a candidate or platform with a vision for how things could be done differently, the question of how residents would benefit remained unanswered.
When Gray Davis was recalled, people were experiencing rolling blackouts. There was a high profile candidate --Arnold Schwartzenagger-- promising a better future. And the state’s Democrats weren’t united behind the incumbent.
The mostly symbolic votes in support of the #RecallJen effort from some local Democratic clubs largely didn’t translate into actions that could have put them over the top. To succeed they needed more people campaigning and a bigger treasury.
https://twitter.com/RachelLaing/status/1399862953826918404?s=20
Finally, there’s the matter of the competing signature gathering campaigns being blamed for the #RecallJen shortfall. The only other recall campaign that counted, when it came to D2 voters, was the Dump Newsom effort, and those calling for unseating Campbell didn’t do themselves any favors by not distancing themselves.
Those behind the GOP’s effort to regain relevance in California would likely not consider Campbell’s actions an issue, but they were glad to at least symbolically include the #RecallJen petitions to their public events. It made a group many see as fringe appear to be in on the effort.
The local Democratic party and Campbell’s supporters seized on that perception, labelling the recall effort as being associated with rightwing extremists.
The right wing IS trying to use recall campaigns to drive their wedge issues, whether it’s the “we’re not racists” efforts aimed at school boards or campaigns based on indignity of having to wear a facemask or get vaccinated.
Having Carl DeMaio, despite what he may think of himself, as one of the cheerleaders for other GQP endeavors, doesn’t do much for plenty of San Diego voters. People hear “recall” and they think, “ugh, he’s at it again.”
The RecallJen campaign says their efforts going forward would be focused on unseating Council member Campbell in the 2022 election.
Unfortunately for them, asking voters to unseat the incumbent involves another candidate getting more votes. With no clear contender on the Democratic side emerging, I’d say their only hope will be to create enough dissension to get a Republican on the November ballot.
Be careful of what you wish for.
***
According to Joshua Spivak of the Recall Elections Blog, recalls in California historically have a higher rate of success than those of other states.
From an op ed at The Hill:
In the 110 recall elections that took place in the state over the last 10 years, by my count 86 of them — a full 78 percent — saw the official removed (another 19 officials resigned and two were removed by a city council).
California uses a two-step process: voters decide on whether the official should go, and then choose a replacement. This may seem more likely to lead to an ouster, but that is not the case in other similar states. It’s not clear why California is more willing to oust officials, but the reality is that under that standard, recalls work.
One of the other revelations in this article is that special election recalls for top of the ballot incumbents actually draw more voters than regular elections. This bodes poorly for the Recall Newsom effort, which relied on angst over pandemic lockdowns to gather support.
The “Rescue California” faction of the movement to unseat the Governor has come up with a grand plan to get voters to the polls:
According to the document obtained by ABC7 News, Rescue California is creating a "Volunteer Citizens Brigade" made up of the massive volunteer network built during the signature gathering phase of their campaign, which included 5,000 regular volunteers and up to 20,000 on weekends. The document states that the "ultimate success" of their campaign will hinge on this volunteer group and its ability to execute an "unprecedented campaign material distribution, Ballot Harvesting and GOTV campaign."
Members of this team will distribute palm cards, bumper stickers and informational materials at 800 permanent Recall Booths across the state and at hundreds of other temporary locations including fairs and rallies. The group also plans to distribute at least half a million yard signs statewide in the hopes of "disheartening the opposition and creating continued enthusiasm for the Recall."
Meh. California’s labor unions have decided to throw their weight into defeating the recall, and they have a history of successful organizing and plenty of cash to do the job.
Here are the latest numbers from the New York Times:
The latest poll, done in early May by the Public Policy Institute of California, found that nearly six in 10 likely voters would vote to keep Newsom, and 90 percent of likely voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind the state.
Supporters of the recall have raised approximately $4.6 million, and opponents have raised about $11.1 million, according to the nonprofit news site CalMatters. Thirty-seven candidates have officially announced their intention to challenge Newsom in the recall.
After nearly 3.8 million cases and more than 63,000 deaths, coronavirus infections are as low now as they were at the start of the pandemic, and 56 percent of Californians have received at least one vaccination shot. The state is running a record budget surplus as the stock market has soared and fewer white-collar Californians lost their jobs than expected. Reopening is scheduled for June 15.
Since campaigning against Newsom isn’t gaining traction at this point, look for the big name Republicans to turn on each other. Get your popcorn ordered soon, folks, it’s gonna be a real sh*tstorm.
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