Republican Recall Regrets Reflected in 2022 CA Campaign Apathy
Are there no Republicans willing to challenge California Gavin Newsom in this year’s election?
The opposition party’s drubbing by the incumbent Democratic governor in last year’s recall campaign has discouraged the GOP’s marquee candidates, according to a Politico story.
Talk radio reactionary Larry Elder says he’s not interested. Trumpanista Assm. Kevin Kiley is running for Congress. And San Diego’s dull and duller Republican candidates, John Cox and former Mayor Kevin Faulconer aren’t raising money.
Newsom’s resounding recall win is lost on no one. The Democratic incumbent crushed the recall attempt by double digits — by the same margin, down to a decimal point, as his 2018 landslide victory. You don’t need to run a campaign firm or hold a political science degree to look at those numbers and conclude that Newsom has cemented his overwhelming frontrunner status as he seeks a second term.
Money is an overriding consideration for Republican hopefuls. Newsom was sitting on $24.5 million at the end of June and has since collected at least $500,000 more, including from boldfaced corporate names like Google and Warner Bros. A viable statewide opponent would need to raise significant sums — and quickly — to compete. Faulconer has been gauging donors’ appetites, and his consultant told us the former San Diego mayor is unlikely to run unless he’s confident tens of millions of dollars will materialize behind him.
The deadline for candidates to file is still more than a month away. High profile Democrats are already harvesting endorsements for local and statewide offices. Nobody serious is banging the drum for a GOP shot at the top spot in California, which means the party’s candidate normally expected to generate enthusiasm for down ballot races is likely to be a nutcase.
Republican candidates for state attorney general and state controller, who could have offered the possibility of breaking Democrats’ monopoly on statewide offices, face an even harder slog in a state where their party’s registration is in third place.
As former California Republican Party chair Jim Brulte acknowledged following the party’s biannual convention in San Diego last fall:
“Investing money in a statewide race so our candidate can lose by 13 points instead of 15 points is a waste of investors’ money.”
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The state’s GOP leaders are trying to boost morale by talking up the possibility of flipping congressional seats in November. Redistricting has changed the possibilities, and some optimistic analysts think the party could gain as many as six seats.
A more sober view of November’s House races comes via Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections, which shows a total of nine seats that could be competitive. Incumbent Democrats hold three of those seats, which include Rep. Mike Levin’s 49th District and Rep. Katie Porter’s 47th District. Had those districts been in place in November 2020, President Biden would have won by 11 points in both.
Still a party has to have something to root for, and I think it had better focus on the battle to keep the nutcases from taking over.
The anti-everything wing of the party is already going nuts over the announcement of a mandatory proof of vaccination or negative COVID test to attend the upcoming CAGOP convention in Anaheim.
The death of high profile Orange County GOP central committee member Kelly Ernby late last year highlights the depth of division within the party on this issue. She was anti-vaxx before COVID –although the anti-vaxxers have all miraculously converted to anti-mandaters– and considered a rising star in the local party.
Also in Orange County, long considered an ATM machine for Republican candidates nationwide, extremists are storming the gates.
From the Mercury News:
Police were called to step in after a group of conservatives wearing orange shirts that said “RINO hunters,” with crosshairs making a target of the “O,” tried to storm a Republican Party of Orange County meeting in Costa Mesa on Monday night.
The group was led by Nick Taurus, a self-proclaimed American Nationalist who last year spearheaded a protest during a town hall for Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, that turned violent. After provocation from Taurus’ group, a Porter supporter threw a punch and was arrested.
Taurus, R-Laguna Hills, is now challenging GOP Rep. Young Kim in the CA-40 House race. He’s labeled Kim, who’s been endorsed by the OCGOP as a RINO, a derogatory name used by the far-right for more moderate politicians who they deem “Republican in name only.”
The clash reflects a growing schism in the Republican party, pitting those who strive to elect GOP candidates in purple areas like Orange County, and those on the far right, who remain fiercely loyal to former President Donald Trump.
Don’t take this news about a weakened CAGOP as a reason to celebrate. Statements by high profile national leaders like Newt Gingrich about jailing Democrats should Republicans take the Congress are the sort of (undeliverable) promises known to motivate the party faithful.
And while the national party stews in its own criminality –vis-a-vis January 6– look for statewide efforts to brand Democrats as soft on crime. The “other” coming for your family and possessions has always worked to drive conservative leaning voters.
Here’s an example of the “Dems are soft on crime” narrative that was so effective that Gov. Newsom felt obligated to do a photo op to prove he was listening/cared.
News organizations both locally and nationally have been covering the rise of cargo theft in L.A.’s northeast train tracks in the past few days. Anchors on morning news have been quick to point out that there have been over 100 arrests, and even Forbes have been quick to point out the staggering $5 million worth of merchandise lifted. L.A. TACO first reported on this last November.
Union Pacific, the train company, has gone so far as blasting L.A. District Attorney George Gascon for his policy that has enabled this rampant rise in theft.
However, one major development that may be directly correlated with the rise in theft has continuously been left out: In September of 2020, due to pandemic-related budget cuts, Union Pacific laid off an unspecified number of employees across the railroad system. Including members of its railroad-only police force. Despite record profits in the billions in the last quarter of 2021.
Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com
Lead photo by Ben Christopher, CalMatters