Republicans, Russians, and Exit Polls. Not Much to See, Yet

November 5, 2024, 7 pm, PST. Take a deep breath, please.

I will probably wait until the morning to file my next report on the national contests. Look for a quick take on San Diego County’s state and local early results in a couple of hours. 

There isn’t a whole lot to report in the way of results. None of the swing states have anywhere close to enough votes counted to feel one way or the other. Red states that voted for Trump last time aren’t switching sides, and the scab New York Times election meter shows the former president with a lead in the potential electoral vote. (Remember in 2020 the NYT meter leaned red early on and the faded to blue)

Exit polls are bullshit. You can find any flavor that suits your political palate, and partisans from both sides are touting the results they like. Ignore them.

Nancy Pelosi, who has a decent reputation for predicting outcomes, says Democrats will control the House of Representatives. If I had to guess, I’d say Republicans will control the Senate, but margins for both chambers are uncertain at present.

So I’m going to focus on what we know.

Kentucky voters have rejected an amendment that would allow the legislature to direct public money to unaccountable private schools in the form of vouchers. Nebraska is voting on a similar measure.

Florida is now the closest entity in the US to Hungary, as Gov. DeSantis successfully wielded the state’s powers to prevent both a marijuana legalization and a pro abortion ballot measure from reaching the 60% threshold needed to pass. 

The biggest verifiable news at this point is the FBI confirming a Russian based effort to disrupt voting in Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Out of 177 polling places in Georgia’s Fulton County, 32 faced bomb threats on Election Day. Police Chief W. Wade Yates confirmed. 

@WisconsinWatch says voting locations in liberal enclave Madison were targeted. Needless to say, precincts likely to vote for Republicans escaped bomb threats.

I have seen some reporting/analysis of early voting saying that Latino men are favoring Trump at higher than expected rates. And nearly everywhere voting lines at college campuses are longer than expected. 

Labor Leader Steve Smith says Harris is outperforming 2020 numbers with union members, citing AP Votecast exit data. She's up 57-39, which tracks with AFL-CIO internal data.

Sarah McBride just became the first trans member of the House of Representatives, winning in Delaware, winning with 57% of the vote.

Democrats flipped Supreme Courts in Kentucky and Michigan.

A few things are certain:

*Donald Trump will declare victory; the only question –maybe worth a ‘fun’ bet on– will be what time. He will also declare that voter fraud has occurred.

*Americans, particularly in the seven swing states, are about to be bombarded with dis and misinformation. The word “bombarded” is an accurate description; these lies and distortions are the artillery of the 21st Century.

*Life will go on. Regardless of the outcome, changes for good or bad won’t happen for many months. Keeping a non-panicked perspective is the only sensible plan for now.

Here’s my plan for the next couple of days:

I will post multiple times per day, but be very careful about facts claimed. Each post will start with a date and time for future reference.

I will report and clearly label significant developments that possibly are not reality based, with the aim of alerting readers to the overall picture. Today, for instance, there will be a gazillion stories purported to be coming from voting locations.