San Diego City Council 2020 Contests Previewed: NIMBYs, YIMBYs, and Musical Chairs
Mayor Kevin Faulconer’s State of the City address on Tuesday was all about the future. Faced with the political reality of a veto-proof, activist-leaning City Council, he ladled out an agenda addressing homelessness, housing, climate change, and diversity. It was Yes, We Can! repackaged for San Diegans.
Hizzoner’s got nothing to lose at this point, what with being termed out and burdened with the tarnished Republican brand. There’s nowhere for him to go in 2021 but to a position with whatever civically minded organization decides his style of boosterism is worth a six figure salary.
Now it’s all about legacy. Baked into Faulconer’s high minded proposals are political traps for councilcritters. Achieving incentives for unlimited density in affordable/low income housing developments, and eliminating parking requirements will come with a high political price.
The political uproar over the development along the mid-coast trolley line and low-income housing in Clairemont are just a preview of what’s to come. I believe this controversy will impact political contests in the City of San Diego in 2020.
It will be the local manifestation of “me” vs “we.” The challenge will be to break with the mediocracy and indecisiveness that have defined our city in recent years.
Having said all that, it’s time to gaze into a crystal ball and speculate about the next round of local elections. Voting in the primary will begin in just 55 weeks or so, now that California has decided to play a bigger role in presidential contests.
City Council races in 2020 are tied to the Mayoral aspirations of Barbara Bry and Todd Gloria. (Which I’ll get to on Thursday.)
Congressman Scott Peters announced this morning he’ll be running for re-election in 2020, so his potential candidacy for the Mayor’s seat is now over.
City Council District One’s Barbara Bry has opted to run for Mayor. It’s a solidly blue district in terms of voter registration, and although it’s bigger than just La Jolla the perception exists that D1 is the upper crust’s seat at the table. District 1 includes Del Mar Heights, Torrey Pines, Pacific Highlands Ranch, Carmel Valley, Del Mar Mesa, Torrey Hills, University City and La Jolla.
Will Moore is the only declared candidate for the seat at this time. Don’t be fooled by his packaging as a “small business attorney,” as he’s actually one of the people behind the scenes making good things happen in San Diego politics.
I know him through his work with the San Diego Leadership Alliance, a group providing training for up and coming community leaders and young people with political/social justice aspirations.
He has also worked with the Urban League Young Professionals and the San Diego chapter of the American Constitution Society and currently is president of the Carmel Valley Democratic Club.
Thus far, Moore’s campaign is talking about “big” and “bold” solutions for local impacts of climate change, the housing crisis, and job creation.
Other candidates rumored to be interested are firefighter and La Jolla Town Council Trustee Aaron Brennan, and civic activist Joe LaCava, who dropped out of the primary race against Barbara Bry in 2016.
LaCava was the top vote getter in the recent ADEM 78 delegate election.
District 3 is where things get fun. Current Councilmember Chris Ward has announced his intention to run for Assemblyman Todd Gloria’s seat. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 3 to 1 in D3 and the perception exists that D3 is San Diego’s Gay district on the council.
Long time activist Stephen Whitburn, currently working with the American Cancer Society wants to take Ward’s place on the City Council. He ran for the D3 Council seat in 2008, losing to Todd Gloria in the general election. Whitburn told the Times of San Diego his previous bid makes him better equipped to run a second time.
He was formerly the executive director of San Diego Pride, and his termination in 2016 was contentious, leading to a lawsuit alleging wrongful termination, age discrimination, and defamation of character.
Update: Chris Olsen, whose twitter bio describes him as lecturer in fiscal policy at SDSU and Policy Analyst for the City’s Independent Budget Analyst (IBA) is running. He's definitely of the YIMBY persuasion.
This district includes Downtown, Balboa Park, and the neighborhoods of Bankers Hill, Golden Hill, Hillcrest, Little Italy, Middletown, Mission Hills, Normal Heights, North Park, Old Town, Park West, South Park, and University Heights.
There is a poll mentioned by Voice of San Diego taken back in early October looking at the viability of Matt Strabone, Omar Passons, Delores Jacobs, William Rodriguez-Kennedy, Nick Serrano, Diane Takvorian, and Whitburn.
Strabone, who ran unsuccessfully for County Assessor, and Jacobs, long-time CEO of the San Diego LGBT Center, have both said they’re not running or interested.
Not commenting on the survey (as least as far I’ve seen) were Passons (who seems to have a dream job with the county), Rodriguez-Kennedy (who’s running for chair of the local Dem party), Serrano (Todd Gloria’s right hand) and Takvorian (executive director of the Environmental Health Coalition).
Republican Councilman Mark Kersey is termed out in D5, the only City Council district with more registered Republicans (by about 2000 voters) than Democrats.
The highest profile candidates mentioned as possibly interested in this seat are Poway Unified school trustee T.J. Zane (Republican) and former SDPD Chief Shelley Zimmerman (No party Preference).
A Union-Tribune article published in December names Republican attorney Joe Leventhal, along with Democrats Deputy City Attorney Marni Von Wilpert and Hugh Rothman, a member of the county Dem Party’s executive board.
The inland suburban district includes Black Mountain Ranch, Carmel Mountain Ranch, Miramar Ranch North, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Encantada, Rancho Peñasquitos, Sabre Springs, San Pasqual, Scripps Miramar Ranch and Torrey Highlands.
Right now, just based on name recognition, I think this might be a seat the GOP can hang on to in 2020.
District 7 Republican Councilman Scott Sherman is also termed-out. The GOP’s registered voters are outnumbered (9,000+) by Democrats, and change is in the air. The district includes Miramar, Tierrasanta, Linda Vista, Mission Valley, Serra Mesa, Allied Gardens, Granville and Del Cerro.
Activist Wendy Wheatcroft, founder of San Diegans for Gun Violence Prevention, has already declared for the seat, and is making the rounds of Democratic clubs and civic groups. The former educator is also a 2018 graduate of Emerge California, a group that trains Democratic women interested in running for public office.
San Diego school board trustee and Democratic party activist Kevin Beiser has also been named as a potential candidate.
Republican potential candidates include real estate broker Bobby Weichelt and Noli Zosa, chairman of the Linda Vista Community Planning Group.
Council member Georgette Gomez will be running in District 9, and chances are better than good she’ll be re-elected.
At this point in time, my guesstimate is for Democrats to have an 8-2 supermajority on the City Council in 2020.
But… It ain’t over until it’s over.
Republicans may choose to throw a bunch of money at a couple of council seats. As has happened in the past, a few faux-Democrats--supported by big business interests--may emerge from the shadows.
Candidates for 2020 council races — including Districts 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 — can’t take out nomination papers until Nov. 6 or file before Nov. 14.
The last day to file nomination papers is Dec. 15. The primary is March 3, 2020, and the general election Nov. 3, 2020.
And in other news...
Don’t call us, we’ll call you
Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday asked President Donald Trump to reschedule his State of the Union address — or deliver it in writing — as long as the government remains shut down.
The president was set to give his annual speech to Congress on Jan. 29. But Pelosi said the partial shutdown has hamstrung both the U.S. Secret Service and the Department of Homeland Security, potentially harming the security planning that precedes the primetime address. Politico
It takes one to know one
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie settles scores in "Let Me Finish," a memoir out Jan. 29 from Hachette Books, writing that President Trump "trusts people he shouldn’t, including some of the people who are closest to him."
What he's saying: Christie asserts that Trump has a "revolving door of deeply flawed individuals — amateurs, grifters, weaklings, convicted and unconvicted felons — who were hustled into jobs they were never suited for, sometimes seemingly without so much as a background check via Google or Wikipedia." Axios
Media Matters points out the inequities in congressional trash talking:
According to the media watchdog, CNN spent 14 minutes and 42 seconds covering King’s remarks, and dedicated over an hour’s worth of discussion to Rep. Tlaib’s expletive. According to the study, MSNBC spent around over twice as much time debating whether or not Trump is an impeachable motherfucker when compared to discussion about how much of a goddamn nightmare the racist King is. Finally, Fox News predictably dedicated nearly an hour to fearmongering about Tlaib’s plot to steal Jesus out of American homes, while spending not even a full minute on King’s most recent bigotry. Daily Kos