Setting the Stage for the 2024 Presidential Primaries
Former President Donald Trump is already hurling poo at any Republican who might be thinking about running for President in 2024. These verbal assaults have solidified hard core supporters, but not had an impact on other potential primary voters.
Republicans and independents who lean their direction say they think they would have a better chance in 2024 with someone other than Trump by a 54%-to-42% margin.
Current President Joe Biden isn’t expected to announce his reelection campaign until April, and new polling suggests self declared Democrats are all in on another term.
Forget about what you might have heard in the news about the president’s approval rating in the fortyish percentile. What gets left out of stories about possible primary challenges is that the approval rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents stands at 83% favorable.
There’s a lot of water left to run under the bridge. Biden’s health could fail; Trump could get indicted, the economy might tank, and/or massive environmental disasters could affect large segments of the population.
So the game right now in both local and national political arenas is to set the stage to get assumptions about the state of things in place as primary season nears.
For Democrats, the presumption of progress is key to their strategy. Biden’s pre-announcement message has been to highlight the administration's successes for a variety of constituencies.
The President’s walking tall posture with respect to the war in Ukraine has blocked a traditional line of attack by the Republicans, namely a stronger foreign policy. Seeing is believing, and in the next year construction on infrastructure projects will become highly visible.
The Democratic Party’s better-than-expected performance in the midterm election combined with a power struggle among Congressional Republicans gives hope for the passage of liberal legislative agendas post-2024.
And results from special elections in Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Virginia just this week are another positive sign for Democrats. At this point the only wanna be challenger to President Biden is Marianne Williamson, who says she’ll have a big announcement on March 4. zzzzz.
Politico is so desperate for a ‘Dems in disarray’ story that they’ve repeatedly mentioned the idea of V.P. Kamala Harris maybe being kicked off the ticket. These guys are either stupid or more stupid if they can’t envision what booting Harris would do to the Democrats’ prospects in 2024. Think about it for a second: what voting bloc put Biden over the top in the past? …oh, yeah, that would be Black women.
A main challenge for Republicans in 2024 will be what they call “woke” considered as serious enough of an issue to turn independent voters away from Democrats. The nutcase wing of the party is working overtime to tar everything from housing to culture as “woke.”
Plan B is to drop the words socialism and communism as often as possible in the context of considering Democratic legislative initiatives and local races. History is on their side, as many of the then-proponents of the New Deal were in fact what we’d call Democratic Socialists, a part of history that was buried during the Joe McCarthy era.
Republicans have a storied history of opposing most of what we call the social safety net; selling the idea of their version of retirement benefits has thus far proved difficult. Enough people got burned with the 401K “reform” so that the terms “market-driven” and “post work force” are like oil and water.
There is, with the exception of maybe candidate South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, the equivalent of an arms race to see who can go the most negative on the lives of the most voters.
Florida Gov. DeSantis’ war on education combined with prohibitions on what can be taught is perhaps the most prominent assault on “wokeness.” at this point..
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is angling for consideration as Vice President in a future Trump administration, apparently succeeded in “triggering the libs” with advocacy of “divorce” by Red States. Never mind that the country already tried this, and the results weren’t good.
Sean Hannity kinda likes the idea, and the assumption of dividing the country allows for all kinds of promises considered unthinkable now; my favorite is the five year waiting period for Blue humans before they can vote in a Red state.
The Washington Post’s Philip Bump gets it:
But it also reflects something that Greene and Hannity don’t want to admit. State politics are shifting as a result of population changes. That disadvantaged Trump in 2020 and likely poses a problem for Republicans moving forward. Instead of actually making compelling arguments to win over Democrats and swing voters, Greene and Hannity want to create a real-world manifestation of their rhetorical bubble and keep out anyone who would challenge their worldview.
This is not a demonstration of confidence in their position.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswarmy is hoping to capture the anti-woke presidential vote, though the response to his announcement on Tucker Carlson’s show has been minimal.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley hasn’t exactly brought much excitement to the GOP contest because, in part, she can’t name any differences with Donald Trump except that she’s younger. Her past experiences where she wrapped herself in the Confederate flag and defended succession are coming back to haunt her.
And she needs to take a refresher course in U.S. History,
Other wanna be GOP candidates are: Mike Pence, Tim Scott, Ted Cruz, Glenn Youngkin, Chris Sununu, Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pompeo, Liz Cheney and Will Hurd. They’re all hoping for a Trump stumble, or at least avoidance of name-calling before declaring.
In California, the big race will be for Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat. Congress members Katie Porter, Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee are the announced candidates; all are popular in their districts and with key Dem voting blocs.
Aside from the U.S. Senate seat, the general election in California is going to be all about voter propositions, which I’ll cover later on as more qualify–or don’t–.
Locally, I don’t see a lot happening yet in contests. It’s as clear as mud. What is probable is that housing/homelessness will be key issues. I don’t get a sense that the opponents to the status quo/present direction have the organizational skills to get voters to the polls. What I can tell readers is that activists in the anti-establishmentarian wings of both parties are really loud on social media.
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Today’s version of: “Every accusation is a confession”
Number of transgender humans arrested recently for sex of any kind =
More confessions:
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...sigh... seems like people campaign for the Presidency earlier and earlier every election. If I had my way, no one would talk about it until 2024. LOL. I get email from the Roots Action Team which I thought was progressive yet I see they are campaigning to stop President Biden from re-election. I don't understand that.
About Politico, I read some months ago that the new CEO or some highfaluting position holder is a conservative and he wanted Politico to write more conservative stuff. Maybe that is why it is so desperate for a "Dems in disarray" story. If any party is in disarray it is the GOIP (Grand Old Insurrectionist Party).
As for MTG, she announced recently that she is miserable in the House and it has ruined her life. I wonder how much more miserable she would be as VP?