Some Perspective on the Ukraine War

At two and a half weeks into the most dangerous war to hit Europe since WWII, the true dangers and horrors are coming into clear focus. There is little that needs exaggerating here, and if there’s one thing to take comfort in, it is that awareness is slowly taking hold on all sides of the gravity of this situation. But still in doubt is whether awareness and rationality will catch up to the dogs of war and leash them before we all get mauled.  

At this point, a bit of perspective on this might help all: 

Nearly three weeks in, Russia is already running quite close in Ukraine to eclipsing the total troop losses it experienced (as the USSR) in the Afghanistan War of the 1980’s:

“Over 15,000 Soviet troops were killed in Afghanistan from 1979 until 1989. In the war, the Soviet Army also lost hundreds of aircraft, and billions worth of other military machines. Around two million Afghan men, women and children died in the war.” - Wikipedia

Those losses in Afghanistan occurred over a period of ten years. While hard numbers are impossible to count (and a matter of some posturing) my guess is Russia has actually been losing around 4,000 troops per week in Ukraine. A rate that will climb substantially as they push deeper into urban terrain, and as Ukrainian forces begin to better leverage their own advantages.  

My prediction is that Russia will likely lose a quarter of its forces if it persists to the bitter end, and still not have any real control of Ukraine. It will have also set its economy back to pre USSR levels, and become the most isolated industrialized nation on the planet. At least as long as Putin remains in power. 

It is also very likely that the fallout of this war will see its neighbors rapidly move towards alliances with Europe, and NATO. Puppet governments like the one in Belarus may eventually collapse. 

More ominously, Russia will still have a nuclear gun to put to the head of the world any time it suits their fancy. 

Putin has already lost. The only question that remains is how ugly he will make his loss for everyone else. I don’t want to imagine how ugly that could get (no person that values their sanity would). But we cannot pretend that the cessation of hostilities (whenever that happens), will bring peace or stability. Not until no single lunatic leader in the world can threaten the entirety of the world with doom are we really at any semblance of peace (and even then). Peace, of course, seems to have become a relative term. Sadly. 

I also fear for the world as the age of robotic war begins to truly unfold. When wars can be fought in air conditioned rooms half way across the world, they become much more likely to be fought. War should be supremely ugly, bloody, and extraordinarily painful to all who commit it. 

Another stark observation. Race is all over this conflict, in every detail. I will be the first to acknowledge that there is a difference between a civil war (Syria), and an unprovoked invasion (Ukraine). People see those conflicts as different, because they are. Even if they are no less brutal. Civil wars result from the breakdown of democratic processes and social fractures. Invasions like that of Ukraine are infinitely more dangerous because they inherently draw other nations into them (as in WWI and WWII). But we all need to reflect on how we in the West have responded to this. Before this conflict, we often would remark at how “those people don’t know anything but fighting”, “they’ve been at war with each other forever” referring to the Middle East. 

And yet it is (primarily) the West, and white people that fought two world wars, and are threatening to drag the world to the edge of a nuclear holocaust. We have lived with a false illusion that we white folk have risen above such things, but it’s complete bullshit. 

Let’s look at America - 

Revolution,
War of 1812, 
Mexican American War, 
Civil War, 
Spanish War (thank you William Randolph Hearst), 
WWI, 
WWII, 
Korean War, 
Vietnam, 
Gulf War, 
Afghanistan War, 
Iraq War. 

That list does not include the some of the proxy wars that were fought at our behest or with our encouragement (like the Iran - Iraq War). In fact, America is among the top nations for modern war involvement. And most of the other top nations are predominantly white nations. Sooooo, yes, we white folk are actually the ones who are “constantly at war with each other”. 

Do we even want to reflect on the differences in how we treat refugees from Ukraine and Syria? Or Afghanistan? Or ones from proxy wars and American sponsored coups in Central/South America? 

And, let’s not forget, when we fought in non-white countries, it predominantly had to do with resources like oil, or bananas, or sugar. Certainly, Ukraine is awash in important resources. But let’s be brutally honest here, we are pouring our hearts out because we identify much more with white Christians than with black or brown Muslims. 

The harsh reality here - we are not the nation or the world that future generations deserve or need. Maybe, somehow, this conflict will spark an awakening that gets us to really step up. To recognize that inconvenience is not tyranny, and sacrifice for important goals is the price of virtue made into action. 

For now, we must hold our collective breath and pray we do not see our very flawed world become the dystopian nightmare we often imagine it could be. And for the cynics that say it already is, that’s probably just a failing of your own imagination.

Timothy P. Holmberg is a former staff reporter and now writes independently. He has served 17 years in the US Marine Corps, and has covered issues ranging from health and local politics to social justice and health.