Syria, After the Fall
Things are remarkably calm in Damascus. The rest of the region, not so much.
This post is a follow up to my December 9 coverage of the fall of Bashir al Assad at the hands of a coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham.
The end of the Assad dictatorship’s significance has grown over the past week. Not only is one of the world’s most brutal regimes gone; the political hierarchy of the Middle East is feeling the change.
Coverage of Syria in the US media has focused on searches for missing persons, with emphasis on the plight of American journalist Austin Tice, imprisoned in 2012 and believed to be still alive.
As the regime fell Tice’s family was gathered in Arlington, Virginia for the first time since the pandemic. They came together to renew interest in his disappearance through contacts with the media and legislators.
Saturday night, one day after the official meetings, including with White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan, and a news conference at the National Press Club, news accounts began to suggest that rebels had entered Damascus.
The US government is now reportedly using its contacts (mostly Turkey) with the rebel forces to communicate the high priority the administration has placed on the safe return of Austin Tice to his family. Roger Carstens, the special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, has traveled to the Middle East to work on freeing him.
I suspect that we’ll learn about the resolution of this quest after this article is published. The fact that nothing has emerged as of this writing doesn’t bode well.
The group now in charge of Syria, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is still designated by the State Department as a terrorist organization, meaning diplomacy must be exercised through intermediaries.
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, has a $10 million bounty on his head. In 2024, courts in the United States convicted people of funding terrorism for raising funds for the group.
The good news coming out of Syria lately has been the rebels swift imposition of order. Looting has stopped, and the sidewalks are crowded with people from all walks of faith. For the most part, government functions have continued, and in some cases, like journalist visas and permissions, are no longer a drawn out process leading nowhere.
Amid a wholesale collapse of the Syrian army, rebel forces threw open prison doors, freeing thousands of detainees. The Syrian Network for Human Rights estimates 157,000 people were swept up during the Assad years. Roads into the capital city of Damascus have been clogged in recent days with those seeking information on missing family members.
Those swept up by the regime were subjected to unbelievable cruelties, with confirmation provided by a Syrian military police defector’s thousands of photographs taken between 2011 and 2013.
Journalist Nabih Bulos filed a depressing report on people searching for loved ones:
Abu Ahmad hails from a rural area near the capital (he refused to give details for security reasons, he said) and he had spent the last 12 years away from his family fighting with the opposition. Before that, he said, he had been detained for two years for Islamist leanings, bouncing among various security agencies.
He compared each agency’s treatment of prisoners like a connoisseur.
“The Air Force Intelligence folks, their hobby was to break your bones. They just had to do it. The Palestine Branch? Their aim was to humiliate you,” he said. “Each branch had its specialty.”
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Assad’s regime didn’t stand much of a chance against an organized offensive, as the Syrian Army was hollowed out by corruption and incompetence. The military’s value to the fallen government lied with its protection of drugs transited to other nations in the region, and providing warm bodies to guard prisons.
The two outside groups that played a role in sustaining the Syrian dictatorship, Russia and Iran were weakened by armed conflicts.
Putin’s forces were caught up fighting in Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia, corruption of its supply chains, and battlefield losses all stressed its relationship with the Assad regime. Its airbase in Syria was also a key refueling station used by Russians to supply friendly forces in sub-Saharan Africa. (The US also has the massive Al-Tanf airbase on Syria’s southern border.)
Here’s David Ignacious in the Washington Post with another piece of the puzzle:
The Syrian rebels who swept to power in Damascus last weekend received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence operatives who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies, according to sources familiar with Ukrainian military activities abroad.
Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group based there, the knowledgeable sources said.
The aid from Kyiv played only a modest role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western intelligence sources believe. But it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself.
Iran’s proxies in the region, Hezbollah, had its leadership devastated when thousands of pagers— secretly packed with explosives by Mossad and in use throughout the organization— simultaneously exploded. Days later, the Israelis struck again, blowing up walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters and assassinating the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
There is open anger in Iran about its government’s role in supporting Assad. The prevailing sentiment is that valuable resources were wasted on an unreliable neighbor, according to a New York Times report by Farnaz Fassihi:
For the moment, the prospects of replicating the ties Iran once had with the Syria appear dim.
After the Assad regime was overturned, Syrians stormed the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, tearing down pictures of Iranian leaders and bringing down its flag. And Ahmed al-Shara, the Islamist rebel leader who spearheaded the insurgency, chastised Iran publicly.
The Assad regime, he said, brought many ills to his country — among them turning Syria into “a farm for Iranian greed.”
Leading up to his government’s collapse, Assad sought to normalize relations with Turkey and the Gulf nations and made a critical mistake in doing so. He offered to use the power he wielded over the drug trade as leverage over them. It backfired.
Via Desiree Adib at ABC News:
Other close watchers of Syria have also pointed to another key factor: a tiny white pill with a pair of interlocking half-moons on one side -- a synthetic and amphetamine that is wildly popular in the Middle East known as Captagon.
Experts say that the drug trade stemming from Syria, the world's largest Captagon supplier, helped hasten Assad's downfall because neighboring countries, wanting to tamp down on the flood of pills, abandoned him.
Although the HTS victors have decreed all existing stocks of the drug to be destroyed, Captagon’s role in Middle East conflicts may not be over.
Via India Today:
Captagon, once a medical treatment for ADHD and depression, found a sinister new purpose under the Assad regime. It costs mere pennies to produce but sells for around $20 a pill on the streets. It wasn’t just a source of revenue for Assad, It was a tool of war. Captagon fuelled fighters, eroded borders, and left a trail of addiction in its wake. Combatants, including ISIS militants, relied on it to stay awake for days, numb their fear, and fight with a terrifying sense of invincibility.
Under Assad, Captagon production exploded, turning Syria into a narco-state, producing 80% of the global supply. His regime profited over $5 billion annually from the drug trade. Money that flowed straight into funding military operations and maintaining up his brutal dictatorship. But no empire lasts forever.
Assad’s fall from power has sent shockwaves through Syria—and the Captagon trade is no exception. With his regime now dismantled, the once-thriving Captagon factories in Syria’s coastal regions have gone silent. Reports suggest production has dropped by as much as 90%. But the fall of Assad’s regime hasn’t brought peace, it’s created a dangerous vacuum. Militias backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are reportedly eyeing the Captagon trade as a new revenue stream.
While it’s clear that Iran and Russia were the losers when Assad fell, it’s not so clear if Turkey, the widely proclaimed winner, will see its ambitions pan out.
US Secretary of State Antoney Blinkin met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier this week growing concerns over a resurgence of ISIS amid Syria’s transition. Both countries are supporting different rebel factions in seeking to protect the national interests.
Turkey has supported the Syrian National Army in part because of its fear of Kurdish fighters seeking to establish an independent state. The Kurdish-led Syrian Defense forces have US backing as part of the strategy to keep ISIS at bay. There have reportedly already been incidents between the groups in recent days.
Abdulkadir Selvi, a journalist associated with Erdoğan’s party, recently noted the government’s concerns regarding the Assad regime collapse: “Syria is too important a country to be left to the HTS and [Abu Mohammad] al-Julani”.
It should also be mentioned here that Syria was “freed” from Ottoman Turkish rule just a century ago and there are bitter memories of that era.
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The Syrian Army kept meticulous records of its daily actions, something researchers are hoping will help resolve the fate of many still-missing detainees.
Capital Hill denizens are keeping their ears open to any references in those records about former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard’s associations with Bashir al-Assad. Gabbard has been nominated by incoming President Trump as Director of National Intelligence.
Former Mike Pence National Security advisor Olivia Troye weighed in on that topic:
Gabbard has a chronic and nasty habit of taking sides with bad dudes like Assad. Vladimir Putin is a personal favorite, and she has elevated the parroting of Russian propaganda to an art form. Two years ago, Gabbard posted a video, in which she called it an “undeniable fact” that bio labs funded by the U.S. are scattered across Ukraine. The claim, of course, originated in Moscow, as a way to falsely accuse the U.S. of bioweapons production. Gabbard ran with it.
Having a Russian propagandist who spreads fringe conspiracies at the helm of national intelligence will likely lead our allies to refrain from sharing intel with us. It will weaken our security posture and make us more susceptible to terrorist attacks on our homeland. Gabbard as DNI is not only dangerous but also a slap in the face to actual intel officers. But that's sort of the point, given Trump's disdain for our national security community.
Following a visit with Assad in 2017, Gabbard whitewashed claims of Syrian Army brutality, even going so far as to say rebel planes were responsible for poison gas being dropped on civilians. The rebel forces lacked an air force to have accomplished such a task.
Nearly 100 former senior U.S. diplomats and intelligence and national security officials have urged Senate leaders to schedule closed-door hearings to allow for a full review of the government’s files on Gabbard. Thus far, feedback from Republicans on the Hill has been “meh”.
I don’t think the repercussions from the downfall of Bashir al Assad are finished. Israel’s occupation of areas along the Golan Heights is, so they say, temporary. I suspect just how short-lived this occupation may be will be dependent on the nature of the regime arising in Syria.
Although they’re not often mentioned in the context of what’s going on in Syria, the ambitions of Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are of importance; they would likely be the source of financing for the war-torn nation’s recovery.
DeMaio Releases 7-Point Plan to Overhaul “Broken” CA Republican Party (Press release)
“If the CAGOP doesn’t make the necessary changes we are demanding starting in March 2025, we are going to navigate around the state party in our fight to take back California from the far-Left — and urge donors, volunteers and candidates to look elsewhere,” DeMaio says.
“I don’t think that is necessary because I do believe there are a lot of well-intentioned Republicans who know problems exist and big reforms are needed at the CAGOP — so by releasing this 7-point Reform CAGOP Plan I hope to stimulate that conversation,” DeMaio concludes.
(Eds Note: Grab your wallet and let the good times roll.)
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Los Angeles Times Owner Wades Deeper Into Opinion Section by Katie Robertson at the New York Times
After President-elect Donald J. Trump announced a cascade of cabinet picks last month, the editorial board of The Los Angeles Times decided it would weigh in. One writer prepared an editorial arguing that the Senate should follow its traditional process for confirming nominees, particularly given the board’s concerns about some of his picks, and ignore Mr. Trump’s call for so-called recess appointments.
The paper’s owner, the billionaire medical entrepreneur Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, had other ideas.
Hours before the editorial was set to be sent to the printer for the next day’s newspaper, Dr. Soon-Shiong told the opinion department’s leaders that the editorial could not be published unless the paper also published an editorial with an opposing view.
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You Can't Rebrand a Class War by Hamilton Nolan at How Things Work
The Democratic Party is such a dispiriting collection of careerists that it can be frustrating to continually speak about what they should be doing, while watching them always choose to instead continue the things that serve the careerists. But let us speak rationally here, regardless. We have a two-party system and the Democratic Party is the opposition. We know what needs to be done and we know that the Republicans are going to do the opposite.
The only move for the Democratic Party—the rational move, the reasonable move—is to get more radical. Pundits will call this “going further left” but really what we are talking about is pulling harder in the direction of where the nation needs to go, in response to a Republican Party that is pulling harder towards plutocracy. If billionaires are destroying our country in order to serve their own self-interest, the reasonable thing to do is not to try to quibble over a 15% or a 21% corporate tax rate. The reasonable thing to do is to eradicate the existence of billionaires. If everyone knows our health care system is a broken monstrosity, the reasonable thing to do is not to tinker around the edges. The reasonable thing to do is to advocate Medicare for All. If there is a class war—and there is—and one party is being run completely by the upper class, the reasonable thing is for the other party to operate in the interests of the other, much larger, much needier class. That is quite rational and ethical and obvious in addition to being politically wise. The failure of the Democratic Party, institutionally, to grasp the reality that it needs to be running left as hard as possible is a pathetic thing to watch.
When the current situation is broken and one party is determined to break it further, the answer is not to be the party of “We Want Things to Be Broken Somewhat Less.” The answer is to be the party that wants to fucking fix it. Radicalism is only sensible, because lesser measures are not going to fix the underlying state of affairs. (Emphasis mine -dp)
