The 2024 Race for Senate Is On. Will Gov. Newsom Upset the Applecart?
Representative Katie Porter was first out of the gate today in declaring her candidacy to represent California in the US Senate in 2024.
Although five-term incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein has yet to say whether she’s running, her memory challenges are public knowledge, and Democratic party insiders are unanimous in saying it’s time for her to step down.
At 89, Feinstein is the oldest sitting U.S. senator and member of Congress. Her decision to decline the position of Senate president pro tempore was believed to be an indication that she’s going to retire.
In January 2021, Feinstein filed the initial Federal Election Commission paperwork needed to seek reelection in 2024, a move her staff said was due to election law technicalities, and not an indication of her intentions for 2024.
Her seniority and longstanding membership on important committees would make her a formidable candidate for re-election. Although the former San Francisco mayor campaigned as a centrist Democrat when initially running for office, she’s moved to the left on many social issues over the years, but remains in the hawkish faction of the Senate.
The possibility of her retirement has a horde of Democrats angling for a spot in California’s top-two primary system.
Given that Gov. Gavin Newsom has reportedly told President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris he will not run against either in 2024 and his consecutive 61% wins in three gubernatorial contests (one of which was a recall effort), there is plenty of talk about his intentions.
From the Los Angeles Times:
Speculation already is swirling in those dark corners of Washington that Feinstein, 89, may step down even earlier, allowing Gov. Gavin Newsom to appoint her replacement, but Feinstein has a reputation for defying the whims and wishes of the D.C. chattering class.
Lest voters forget, the California Democratic Party didn’t even endorse Feinstein in 2018 — the last time she ran for reelection. The Democrats backed then-state Senate President Kevin de León, who lost to Feinstein in the general election and has since found himself in hot water because of a leaked recording of Los Angeles City Council members making racist remarks.
Should Feinstein decide to retire before her term runs out, Gov. Newsom will appoint a replacement. His appointment of Alex Padilla to replace Kamala Harris meant the Senate lost its only Black woman. The Governor told MSNBC host Joy Reid he’d nominate a Black woman for the Senate should Feinstein resign.
If she serves out her term, though, all bets are off. Newsom’s advantages would make him a very strong candidate. A bunch of others considering the position might have to reevaluate if he decides he wants it.
***
Congress member Katie Porter, known for her white board recriminations of big business CEOs, emerged as one of the top fundraisers on Capitol Hill, having collected $22.6 million for the last cycle. Despite a change in constituent demographics due to redistricting, she bested Republican Scott Baugh the 2022 general election, garnering 51.7% of the vote.
Porter (no relation) grew up in the small farming community of Fort Dodge, Iowa, attending Yale with a degree in American studies, and Harvard Law School, graduating magna cum laude with her Juris Doctor in 2001. She studied bankruptcy under future US Senator Elizabeth Warren, and interned for Senator Chuck Grassley.
Her early entry into the Senate contest should be seen as an attempt to overcome a polling advantage and party establishment support for Rep. Adam Schiff. A privately paid-for poll showed Reps. Porter and Ro Khanna with 20% support compared to 40% for Schiff.
Khanna has since indicated that he’s not going to run for Senate, amid speculation he could be the Bernicrats candidate for president in 2024..
Schiff gained star power among Democrats for his role as the lead prosecutor in the first impeachment of Trump, and raised $22 million in the last cycle. He’s been in Congress for two decades and was chair of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Like Feinstein, Schiff has been a very prominent supporter of national defense spending, supporting every increase in that budget over the course of his career.
Oakland’s Congressmember Barbara Lee, who polled at 10% in the aforementioned survey, is a viable candidate, especially if the criteria of have a Black woman in that Senate seat is considered.,
There are many other names mentioned when it comes to a replacement for Sen. Feinstein, and their probabilities of getting the post are variable, depending on whether she serves out her term or retires early.
Democrats with statewide appeal who have been mentioned include: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, Controller Betty Yee, Treasurer Fiona Ma, Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, Secretary of State Shirley Weber and state Supt. of Instruction Tony Thurman. There’s also U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, a former state attorney general and longtime member of Congress.
Mayors London Breed of San Francisco, Libby Schaaf of Oakland, Todd Gloria of San Diego and Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento are also discussed in some circles, mostly because Feinstein made the leap from city government.
On the Republican side, there’s always former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, if he’s up for losing another race. My bet will be somebody from the nutcase wing of the GOP who is not smart enough to realize that third place in the primary won’t get you to the general election.
Here’s Rep. Porter’s announcement video:
Also…love the attitude.
Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com
The lead cartoon was originally created by DonkeyHotey for WhoWhatWhy from these images: Katie Porter caricature (DonkeyHotey / Flickr – CC BY 2.0), body (Tom Hilton / Flickr – CC BY 2.0), and whiteboard (Rondo Estrello / Flickr – CC BY-SA 2.0).