The Bigger Picture on Putin’s Ukraine War
We’ve seen just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to repercussions following Vladimir Putin’s decision to “solve” the Ukraine question. Ultimately what we’re seeing is either the restoration of the Russian (as opposed to Soviet) empire or the self-destruction of an autocracy.
One way to look at the situation is to envision Western democracies as an old tree. The Russian government has been working hard at inducing rot, via a long-term campaign of disinformation and campaign cash.
Vlad has decided it’s time for the tree to fall, and the invasion of Ukraine constitutes a few whacks with an ax, hoping it will fall. If it doesn’t, he’s open to using explosives (i.e., his threats of nuclear weapons) to bring it down.
The performance of the Russian military thus far has been abysmal. The operational plan was for Russians to quickly seize Kyiv, neutralize Ukrainian air power and communications, and install a new government subservient to Moscow.
While much has been made of the success of Ukraine’s rag-tag forces, serious tactical errors on the Russian side have contributed to their shortcomings.
Simple stuff like GPS-linked mapping (impossible because Russian phones used SIM cards incompatible with Ukrainian infrastructure) would have thwarted the rearranged road signs that led tanks and troops into the middle of nowhere. Supplies of fuel and ammunition were lost in the shuffle, making them easy targets for bands of highly motivated Ukrainians.
Widespread corruption in military procurement systems has led to inferior weapons, planes and helicopters that won’t fly. Russian units are using military rations that expired years ago.The oligharchy’s hand over fist shoveling of money into foreign assets is a direct result of cutting corners, lying about quantities delivered, and bribes paid to those who were supposed to be watching over the process.
The corruption within the Russian military goes beyond procurement. Training was also gamed; early mobilizations involved brigade commanders being able to hand pick a company to send up. Because the corruption had created such a rot, "creative" (criminal) conscripts and ghost soldiers were added to rosters, meaning a perception of military readiness was way short of the reality.
The Russians, assuming things would end quickly, weren’t prepared for an onslaught of negative social media coverage. An initial barrage of misinformation from the Kremin fell on empty ears, discredited by realities on the ground. And the Ukrainians, go figure, were as savvy as any group of teenagers in making their story seem larger than life.
I have no doubt that things will turn much darker as desperation within the higher ranks of the Russian military spreads. The weaponry will be more destructive and the targeting will grow to include civilian areas. With morale within the combat forces sagging, a decisive military resolution is in order.
There was some initial hesitancy on the part of the Russians concerning civilian casualties and massive leveling of urbans areas, not because Putin is a nice guy, but because Russian is so intertwined with Ukraine it would be a hard sell domestically and with the grunts in the military.
Putin’s Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov has been axed. This was no mere bureaucratic shuffle. Gerasimov was highly regarded, considered the most important military leader in recent times, and the architect of contemporary Russian Armed Forces.
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Meanwhile, on the other side of enemy lines, aka the U.S. of A., Putin's Fifth Column was doing its best to sow discord and disinformation. Nowhere is this more evident over the weekend than at the four-day Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando.
Former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Right-wing U.K. broadcaster and Brexit booster Nigel Farage, and host of other luminaries made the case that, even if Putin was a bad man, what was going on in Ukraine was President Biden’s fault.
Gabbard, in a high-profile speaking slot during the conference's Saturday night Ronald Reagan dinner, opened with a call to send prayers to Ukraine, before charging the Biden administration with hypocrisy, for wanting to "go to war to spread democracy and freedom while they actively work to undermine our democratic republic and our freedoms right here at home."
Farage backpedaled furiously in his Saturday speech, admitting that while he'd always thought Putin was a "reasonable" nationalist, it was just possible that wasn't the case; in any case, the invasion was still Biden's fault, for giving Putin "nothing to fear."
That theme was repeated throughout the conference: "Muscular diplomacy" was required to secure peace, but Biden "radiated provocative weakness," as former Trump acting director of national intelligence Richard Grenell said. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., argued that "weakness invites the wolves," and Donald Trump himself, in his Saturday-night stem-winder, protested that "none of this ever would have happened if the election was not rigged and I was the president."
It was clear that delegates to the event were willing to say Putin was better than any Democrat.
McCarthyite descriptions of Democrats, liberals and progressives as the enemy within were the order of the day.
This rhetoric came out of declarations about conservative Americans being victimized.
Here’s conference organizer Matt Schlapp: "Who would have thought in America it's become illegal to be a Republican supporting a Republican president?"
Illegal? As if there's a law against it? Has anybody ever faced a jury on such an accusation?
Wow, that’s tough. Made up tough.
But this is what happens when you have an entire group of people who have been flooded with a constant barrage of infotainment that they become so desensitized to it. They see everything as an act; the world of politics is in the same realm as professional wrestling or a Mexican telenovela. It’s about stark heroes and villains, about being constantly prodded to distill the world into a good versus evil fight.
And, lets face it: being tough for real is incredibly hard. Real toughness, real strength always involves more mental discipline and emotional endurance than physicality. It’s just way easier to fake it, and the faker it gets, the easier it gets to keep up.
But in recent days, we’ve seen one of the best modern examples of what toughness looks like, in the form of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine.
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Getting back to reality for a moment, the first polling since the Ukraine invasion started is out, and President Biden is getting high marks for his actions.
Republicans will use the State of the Union address to criticize the President for not moving quicker on a situation most of them were averse to getting into just a few days ago. The fact is that Biden took the time to build unity in Europe, steps which represent the most clear path to halting Russian aggression.
Americans think 66 – 20 percent that Putin has intentions to invade other countries beyond Ukraine.
If Russia invades a NATO country, Americans say 70 – 21 percent that American troops should get involved.
Support has increased for President Biden’s decision to deploy thousands of troops to Eastern Europe to support U.S. allies in NATO. Americans now support the decision 70 – 21 percent. In a February 16, 2022 Quinnipiac University Poll, they supported it 54 – 36 percent.
“American support for defending NATO countries surrounding Ukraine grows dramatically, but Americans cast a wary eye on the possible consequences. By more than three to one, they see Russia expanding its attack, and register deep concern over the darkest possible scenario, a nuclear attack on NATO and/or the United States,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
What isn’t being widely discussed are the long-term effects of the Ukraine conflict. Food and energy costs are bound to increase quickly, as supply disruptions and avarice lead to price hikes.
Ukraine and Russia are top exporters of major grains and vegetable oils, according to a Vox analysis of the food export data from International Trade Centre in 2020. The two countries account for the majority of the world’s sunflower-seed oil exports, while Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter. Combined, Ukraine and Russia were responsible for about 26 percent of global wheat exports in 2020.
These long-term effects will accelerate, regardless of what political party is in power in Washington DC. Look for the party that would rather see Putin in the White House than any Democrat to obstruct any steps that might ease pain to consumers.
Pressure by corporate America to increase fossil fuel production could lead to even more climate change consequences, which is a big deal given this week’s IPCC report:
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report said Monday if human-caused global warming isn’t limited to just another couple tenths of a degree, an Earth now struck regularly by deadly heat, fires, floods and drought in future decades will degrade in 127 ways with some being “potentially irreversible.”
“The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health,” says the major report designed to guide world leaders in their efforts to curb climate change. Delaying cuts in heat-trapping carbon emissions and waiting on adapting to warming’s impacts, it warns, “will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”
Finally… What’s going on in Europe is ultimately a continuation of centuries-long wars. While the post-WWII order crowd is thrilled with the unity they’re seeing in opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they and others fail to realize that neutralizing that country is just one step along a road to blowing up an international rules-based order. The “fun” is just beginning.
Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com