The High Cost of San Diego’s Congressional Delegation

Thursday, November 7, 2pm. San Diego has five members in the House of Representatives. A couple of them have districts that include parts of other counties. Only one of them (the 49th) is seriously in contention, a competition reflected in the cost per vote in the teens for each candidate.

North County’s 49th district overlaps with traditionally more Republican Orange County, so the numbers you see about cost per vote are for San Diego only. Both parties saw incumbent Mike Levin as vulnerable, and the rightward trending of the electorate could justify all the outside money attracted to the contest.

All the other congress members have a favorable partisan registration such that opposition parties have a slim to none chance of competing in general elections. None-the-less, incumbents spent an average of just shy of $4 per vote. Incumbent Scott Peters, facing an opponent who never filed campaign spending paperwork, even borrowed $173,832 for a re-election effort that ended up with $1,951,963 in cash on hand. 

I know, I know, that incumbents do a lot more with campaign money than solicit votes. Running for office involves spending a certain amount with supportive local businesses and investments in keeping one’s profile high enough to be recognized by constituents. Rep. Scott Peters has invested personal effort and a few bucks with UCSD students, who have proved to be productive ground troops for the Democratic Party.

Darrell Issa, atop a nearly 11 point advantage in the 48th, spent $4.13 per vote against a Democratic opponent only capable of spending 27¢ per vote, which seems ridiculous until you see that Democrats facing Republican opponents with no money also spent roughly $4 per vote.

The outlier in local Congressional contests was the 51st District, where El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells dropped $6.11 per vote received (as of Thursday) against incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs, who ended up spending $5.71 per vote in defense of her seat.

I’m not sure what possessed Wells to think a Republican had a shot against a higher profile incumbent in a district with 17.75% Democratic advantage among registered voters. His campaign was all MAGA all the time, involving beating the drum of his folksified ‘common sense’ fear mongering about immigrants, crime, and homeless people. Yes, California swung right like the rest of the country when it came to DC denizens, but I think Wells had something else in mind.

Our campaign finance system is a mess of excess for most incumbents and reform (ranked voting!) could end up giving voters better choices. The reality is that most incumbents would find a way to not support reforms, especially in light of the Supreme Court’s blessing corporations as people.

Without further ado, here are some numbers to digest, via the ballotbook.com. (all numbers are as of Thursday morning)

California’s 48th Congressional District (SD Portion Only)
Registration advantage R+10.92

Rep. Darrell Issa, incumbent Republican, has the lead in San Diego with 100,952 votes. He has the lead in Riverside County with 48,120 votes
Raised $950,391
Debt $5,081,388 (Self financed)
Cost per vote (SD)  $4.13 

Stephen Houlahan, Democrat, is trailing in San Diego with 65,551 votes. He is trailing in Riverside County with 39,162 votes
Raised  $18,642
Debt $0
Net Cash $7,924.
Cost Per Vote (SD) $0.27

****

California’s 49th Congressional District (SD Portion Only)
Registration advantage  D+3.58 

Rep. Mike Levin, incumbent Democrat, is leading in San Diego with 92,428 votes. He trails in Orange County with 46,435 votes.
Raised $2,785,508
Debt $0
Cost Per Vote (SD) $15.50

Republican Matt Gunderson is trailing in San Diego with 73,536 votes. He leads in Orange County with 60,106 votes 
Raised $746,833
Debt $843,500 (Self financed)
Cost Per Vote (SD) $17.81

***

California’s 50th Congressional District
Registration advantage D+18.48

Rep. Scott Peters, incumbent Democrat, is leading with 149,262 votes
Raised $923,617
Debt $173,832
Cost Per Vote: $3.52

Peter J Bono, Republican, is trailing with 88,827 votes
Raised $0 (No reports filed)
Debt $0
Cost Per Vote $0

***

California’s 51st Congressional District
Registration advantage  D+17.75 

Rep. Sara Jacobs, incumbent Democrat, is leading with 122,245 votes
Raised $1,187,635
Debt $350,000 (self financing)
Cost Per Vote: $5.71

Bill Wells, Republican, is trailing with 85,329 votes
Raised $574,601
Debt $0
Cost Per Vote: $6.11

***
California’s 52nd Congressional District
Registration advantage D+ 27.68

Rep. Juan Vargas, Democratic incumbent, is leading with 103,091 votes
Raised $530,028
Debt $19,578
Cost Per Vote: $4.05

Justin Lee, Republican, is trailing with 57,028 votes
Raised $0
Debt $0
Cost Per Vote: $0

Next up: Top Officials in San Diego City and County