Thoughts on Political Realignment in a Post Trump World
Today’s post will set aside the prospect of Trump winning a second term. Despite what polls say, a lot of things can happen over the next four months. It’s totally within the realm of possibility that the current occupant of the White House will get another four years at the job.
But… let’s take a look at the shifting alliances, the popular uprising underway, and --most of all--the likelihood of sustained damage to the economy. According to a recent Pew survey, 87% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country.
There have been an average of 140 protests in cities large and small stemming from the murder of George Floyd every day for six weeks now; the Kaiser Family Foundation says 10% of all American adults say they have participated in one way or another.
From the New York Times:
Even protests to unseat government leadership or for independence typically succeed when they involve 3.5 percent of the population at their peak, according to a review of international protests by Erica Chenoweth, a professor at Harvard Kennedy School who co-directs the Crowd Counting Consortium, which collects data on crowd sizes of political protests.
[...]
“It looks, for all the world, like these protests are achieving what very few do: setting in motion a period of significant, sustained, and widespread social, political change,” Professor McAdam said. “We appear to be experiencing a social change tipping point — that is as rare in society as it is potentially consequential.”
There have been (mostly) incremental changes in the way institutions address racism and police brutality. Those changes will continue even as the political ground shifts in both local and national elections.
Six months ago, who would have thought that police reform would be a central campaign issue in the contest for San Diego Mayor? And that both the remaining candidates’ records on the issue were not something they could campaign on.
President Trump has made “otherizing” the protest movement the centerpiece of his reelection campaign in an attempt to distract from his administration’s utter failure at governance. He does so at the risk of further alienating voting blocks where support (or at least not opposition) might exist, as his embrace of the confederate flag at NASAR events (this morning) proves.
https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1280155778423324673?s=20
Come December, or when the vote count/electoral college results are obvious, there will be a sorting of identifiable political groupings on a national scale.
For purposes of this thought process, I’m assuming the current president and his minions get their asses handed to him.
While the fall of the Soviet Union is considered a breaking point in history, the destruction of the Berlin Wall is remembered as the flash point in that process. The killing of George Floyd strikes me as a primary impetus for the coming political realignment.
And the COVID-19 epidemic is the turning point for an economic change, given that the basis for success has been consumer spending at the retail level.
Think of these political groupings I’m attempting to describe as a continuum rather than hard and fast blocs.
First up we have the Vichy Republicans, aka the Q party, the elected officials and fans who tied their political fortunes to the Trump administration. In my estimation, a lot of these people are going to end up in a political no man's land, their credibility shredded and usefulness in making corporate friendly legislation will be worthless.
There are pockets of the country where the group-think of these folks passes for reality, and it’s probable stochastic (encouraged lone wolf) terrorism, along with staged events aimed at generating outrage will be widespread for the foreseeable future.
A delusional part of this bunch will continue to live on social media, and a motley crew of second amendment worshiping losers will garner much media attention, since their only power will be in disruption.
The actual political power of this grouping will be diminished as their “other-ism” grievances won’t gain much traction in a disrupted economy. Many of their wealthier backers will see better prospects for achieving their goals.
For lack of a better term, I’ll call the Republicans who woke up, the Lincoln Project Organization.
https://youtu.be/z9-JgVgrPD4
While pumping out a continuous stream of hard hitting videos, they’ve also begun building organizational infrastructure at the state level.
Here in California, Mike Madrid’s database of movers and shakers will be urged to look past the existing GOP. Former San Diego City Councilman Mark Kersey, who's thrown his lot in with these rebels, could be a bright new face in California politics.
I would bet on a generally libertarian outlook, with some acknowledgement of a less-than-hostile attitude towards minority and other historically disenfranchised groups. The assumption of a market-based political economy will be a core belief as they seek to appeal to whatever is left of the small business sector.
While I doubt many in the group would phrase it this way, they are looking backward to a kinder, gentler version of “make America great again.”
Missing from this vision will be the progressive taxation system that largely paid to create the nation they’d like to remember.
Third Way Democrats. These are elected officials whose base ideology will be centered around the premise that we cannot afford to make the political and structural adjustments required.
They will speak of the national debt as the obstacle to change they will claim to agree is necessary.
Along with their formerly Republican brethren, they’ll preach the virtues of the marketplace as the ultimate arbiter of national progress, even as they tinker around the edges of problems like climate change.
I would expect this group to become the core of a new national coalition involved in the electoral process. They have the institutional knowledge, access to funding, and a willingness to be opaque about the deal-making process. (There is a difference between selling out and compromise.)
The Untouchables. This is a catch-all category, inclusive of mostly non-political humans, who have borne the brunt of economic, political, and social injustice in history whose awakening is a key part of this political realignment.
That definition largely means people of color, and while their electoral activism may overlap with traditional ideological groupings, they bring to the table the need for recognition as a political force, as do women, LGBTQ, indiginous peoples, and those with special needs.
I use the term untouchables after reading a New York Times Magazine essay by Isabel Wilkerson examining our historical racial hierarchy.
Race, in the United States, is the visible agent of the unseen force of caste. Caste is the bones, race the skin. Race is what we can see, the physical traits that have been given arbitrary meaning and become shorthand for who a person is. Caste is the powerful infrastructure that holds each group in its place. Its very invisibility is what gives it power and longevity.
She describes a moment of clarity experienced by Dr. Martin Luther King during a school visit to India in 1958 when he was introduced as “a fellow untouchable from the United States of America.”
“For a moment,” he would later recall, “I was a bit shocked and peeved that I would be referred to as an untouchable.”
Then he began to think about the reality of the lives of the people he was fighting for — 20 million people, consigned to the lowest rank in America for centuries, “still smothering in an airtight cage of poverty,” quarantined in isolated ghettos, exiled in their own country.
And he said to himself, “Yes, I am an untouchable, and every Negro in the United States of America is an untouchable.” In that moment, he realized that the Land of the Free had imposed a caste system not unlike the caste system of India and that he had lived under that system all his life. It was what lay beneath the forces he was fighting in America.
Progressives, aka the highly educated and/or activist wing of the Democratic Party, are another part of this new equation. Whether or not they become a sustained political force will be determined by their ability to ally with and adapt to the priorities of those who have been historically excluded from the political process.
At one time in the past, the left wing of the political spectrum meant those whose survival was dependent primarily on wages. Call them working class, call them middle class or whatever, the fact was and is that their persistence come election time has been the lifeblood of the Democratic party. Today, I’m talking about Black women and unions for the most part.
Making the issue of inequality front and center is the road to political success for left Democrats. The only way this will change is through progressive taxation (and not just on income), and it’s high time somebody got honest about it.
Trickle down economics, and tax breaks for the wealthy have not raised the overall standard of living, nor have they spurred additional economic growth. GDP and the stock market may go up, but people’s lives have not gotten better.
The country needs some version of the whole package--Green New Deal, Medicare for All, major infrastructure investments, sane immigration, and a restoration of the commons that has been neglected or privatized.
And the discussion shouldn't be how we can afford these things, it should be when, if for no other reason than a strong opening gambit will yield better results.
First, however, it will be time to clear out the Trump toadys, undo his executive orders, and build an administration of clear-eyed rational people representative of the whole population, as opposed to the White supremacist grifters in place at present.
It will be self-defeating for progressives to ignore this political infrastructure building process, one that needs to occur at every level of government. The difficulty the City of San Diego is having with filling positions to oversee the redistricting process is an example of activists not seeing the importance of participation at the local level.
You have to be willing to do the hard work, and generations conditioned by promises of immediate gratification are and will be a problem.
Finally, I would be remiss not to say a few words about the nihilists among us, who exist across the spectrum. This outlook is the ultimate expression of narcissism, and acts to poison the well of public discourse and democracy to settle imagined or real grievances.
The urge to fight short sighted political battles, and a willingness to serve the interests of the perceived opposition never results in anything good other than spreading resentment and encouraging apathy. We live in an imperfect world, and using those imperfections to settle scores is especially counter-productive right now.
You see these nihilists on social media, and endure their presence as they insist on being the center of attention in group decision making. Giving these types of individuals a platform is just as big of a waste of time as trying to convince your nutso uncle that his tin foil hat is effective.
The urge to foster redemption is a core human trait. For now we need to put things in perspective and understand the urgency of the situation we’re facing.
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