Trump Wanes; Trumpism Doesn’t
Trump Wanes; Trumpism Doesn’t
I’ll borrow a word currently popular in right wing circles to say that Trump’s real success may ultimately be in the *grooming* of like-minded politicians.
Cracks are starting to show in support for former President Trump.
Over the weekend, two Rupert Murdoch newspapers, the New York Post and the Wall Street Journal ran editorials critical of Trump.
Here’s the Wall Street Journal, Under the headline, "The President Who Stood Still on Jan. 6,
"Still, the brute facts remain: Trump took an oath to defend the Constitution, and he had a duty as Commander in Chief to protect the Capitol from a mob attacking it in his name. He refused...Instead, he fed the mob’s anger and let the riot play out."
And the New York Post, headlined "Trump's silence on Jan. 6 is damning."
"His only focus was to find any means — damn the consequences — to block the peaceful transfer of power.
There is no other explanation, just as there is no defense, for his refusal to stop the violence. It’s up to the Justice Department to decide if this is a crime. But as a matter of principle, as a matter of character, Trump has proven himself unworthy to be this country’s chief executive again."
Fox News –while some of its opinionators haven’t gotten the memo– has been showering Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (ugh!) with favorable coverage.
You’d think from these shifts in outlook that the January 6 Committee hearings were having an impact, and maybe they are.
According to Dan Pfieffer:
By most measures, the January 6th Committee hearings have been an unalloyed success. The Committee’s first hearing drew six million more viewers than any of this year’s NBA Finals games. It’s a big deal for a Congressional hearing to overshadow Steph Curry. Polls also show that many people are paying close attention and the percentage of Americans who believe Donald Trump should be charged with a crime is rising. A Navigator Poll found a six-point increase in the number of Republicans and Independents who believe Trump should be charged with a crime after being informed of the revelations from the Committee.
There is also early evidence that the hearings are hurting Trump with Republican voters. A new poll from the University of New Hampshire shows Ron DeSantis leading Trump for the 2024 nomination among likely Republican voters
I argue that these shifts in support are largely a political calculation, holding that by 2024 many Republicans will see the former President as damaged goods. The guy has criminal and civil consequences all around him and, while it’s entirely possible that he’ll avoid the expected outcomes (he almost always does), the drumbeat of political negativity will encourage others to vie for the throne he currently occupies.
I’ll borrow a word currently popular in right wing circles to say that Trump’s real success may ultimately be in the grooming of like-minded politicians.
David French, the Christian voice among the wilderness of never-Trumpers, puts a biblical spin on this process, calling it “disciplining.”
Many millions of Republicans aren’t just Republicans on Election Day, they’re Republicans every day. And Donald Trump placed every-day Republicans in a constant dilemma. Did you point it out when he did evil things? Or did you mainly remain silent, trusting in the notion that no matter how bad Trump was, his opponents were worse?
Or, even worse, did the tension between Trump’s actions and your own morality grow so great that you started to redefine morality itself? How many people made the migration from supporting Trump in spite of his character to supporting him because of who he was? I can think of countless folks, in both public and private life.
That’s what discipling looks like.
Ted Cruz says his pronouns are “kiss my ass’ not just because he corrupted himself for Trump but because the crowd is corrupt as well. The same analysis goes for Josh Hawley’s refusal to apologize for his fist salute or his election challenge. He is morally corrupt. That cheering crowd is morally corrupt.
The king may (or may not) be dethroned, but the autocratic vision inherent in his approach will remain in force.
While the House Select Committee may have chipped away to Donald Trump’s support, it hasn’t impacted the strategies and tactics of the GOP.
Here’s Ed Pilkinton, citing Steven Levitsky, co-author of the influential book How Democracies Die, at the Guardian:
Levitsky cites an analysis by the Republican Accountability Project, a group of anti-Trump conservatives, of the public statements made by all 261 Republicans in the US House and Senate in the wake of the 2020 election. It found that 224 of them – a staggering 86% of all Republicans in Congress – cast doubt on the legitimacy of Biden’s win in what amounted to a mass “attack on a cornerstone of our democracy”.
Levitsky warns that the hearings have illuminated two great dangers for America, both relating to Republicans. The first is that the party’s strategists have acquired through Trump’s efforts to overturn the election, a roadmap to the vulnerabilities of the electoral system.
“They discovered that there is a plethora of opportunities for subverting an election, from blocking certification to sending alternate slates of electors to Congress. Armed with that knowledge, they may well do it much better next time.”
The second lesson for Levitsky relates to accountability, or the lack of it. The Republicans who played with fire, openly backing the anti-democratic movement, found that they were largely immune to the consequences.
“They learned that if you try to overturn the election you will not be punished by Republican voters, activists or donors. For the most part, you’ll be rewarded for it. And to me, that is terrifying.”
Dave Weigel at the Washington Post reports on the default position among a significant number of GOP candidates during primary season:
Some candidates see “a country that was not merely in trouble, but being destroyed by leaders who despise most Americans — effectively part of a civil war. In both swing states and safe seats, many Republicans say that liberals hate them personally and may turn rioters or a police state on people who disobey them…”
…“It’s purposeful,” said former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who is running in next month’s special election for the state’s sole House seat, in an interview with former Trump adviser Stephen K. Bannon. “It’s all about the fundamental transformation of America. You only fundamentally transform something for which you have disdain.”
That argument has been dramatized in ads that, for instance, show one armed candidate appearing to charge into the home of a political enemy, and another warning of “the mob” that threatens ordinary Americans. In many cases the candidates are brandishing firearms while threatening harm to liberals or other enemies.
Some Democratic Party-aligned funders have opted to find not-so-subtle ways of supporting the more extreme GOP candidates, in the hope that they’ll be easier to defeat in a general election. What they’re missing out on is the necessity of messaging that challenges the assumptions being put forth both by supposed RINOs and Trump-o-nauts.
Like him or not, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has gone into the lion’s den at Fox (and elsewhere) effectively selling truth over lies.
Assuming that Trump doesn’t get the nomination from his party in 2024 involves a leap of faith. After all, he’s grifted his way through every crisis he’s ever faced, from cheating to get into college to taxes dodged in the inheritance from his father, debts expunged through six bankruptcies, business failures eclipsed by his TV role as a supposed business genius, contractors stiffed, with allegations of sexual harassment or assault by at least 18 different women waved off.
Trump’s entire life has taught him the lesson that he can defy the law and social norms and get away with it. So if he’s backed into a corner and decides he’s going to run for president, he’ll destroy those who stand in his way, consequences be damned.
Never Trumper Rick Wilson imagines this scenario in a thread on Twitter:
I find it amusing how few Republicans understand that Trump is a fundamentally vengeful and petty person.
They think shanking him now by stacking the deck for President Ron DeSantis and VP Stefanik will make him go away.
Make no mistake, that is what is happening. The titanic forces inside the gentry GOP, the money crowd, Fox, and the consultant class have set their hearts on DeSantis and are telling all the other aspirants to "wait their turn."
It's not just that Trump will run in the GOP primary and cause endless torture and chaos. No, Trump's real vergeltungswaffen has the benefits of extending the grift, allowing him to play by no rules at all, and to keep the lidless eye of every camera on him.
The worst case for the GOP is simple and awful, a bane they can't overcome if he does it. Imagine for a moment that Trump declares he's running as an independent.
Play it through from there, and the ramifications are...spectacular.
Okay, so what does all these mean for progressives and other people who give a shit about not descending into authoritarian madness?
It means that any winning strategy involves putting one foot in front of the other. Democracy is hard work. Keeping it means staying engaged. It’s one thing to be cognizant of what the Trumpanistas are up to, it’s another to let them stun us with their savagery.
It’s going to be an ugly election year. There are already candidates out there claiming they’ve lost due to voter fraud before the first vote is even cast in their election.
For the time being, anyway, the person who gets the most votes wins the election. Getting those votes should be priority #1.
***
PS—I’m going away for a while. See tomorrow’s post for too much information about my health crises.
Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com