Voting Updates: Things to Know With Two Weeks to Go
Polls, More Polls, A Little Local Fash(ism) & Plenty of Cash
The economy is the number one issue of concern for voters, so we’re being told. While I have no reason to doubt accounts of what keeps people awake at night, I’m not so sure about how the leap from financial concerns to ballots cast is as predictive as some pundits would like us to believe.
Americans are complex people, and I have to wonder whether anybody not in a cult really thinks their vote is going to directly impact inflation, inequity, or increase the supply of housing. What I’m talking about here is the narrative we’re seeing about this election, and what I see is an attempt to manipulate what gets perceived as the larger reality.
Today’s lead story in the legacy press concerns the decline of student test scores over the past few years as schools have attempted to cope with a pandemic. I’m sure the numbers are as real as can be. I’m also sure the “cures” –which range from spend money wisely to elect angry parents to school boards– are illusionary
Read down a few paragraphs in stories on the subject and you’ll see a sentence similar to the one found in the Los Angeles Times:
Experts said the nation test data did not show a clear linkage between the length of time schools were closed during the pandemic and achievement.
None-the-less, we should expect a slew of tv ads and mailers blaming incumbents for falling test scores along with burning cities and higher gas prices. The spin from the Heritage Foundation (Jason Bedrick) is what you can expect to be the basis of these claims. (I’ll have more on this topic in a future posting)
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A quick search on CNN’s reporting on expected trends in the upcoming election shows a sudden shift–as of yesterday. Two weeks ago the news network was chock full of stories about a resurgence for Republicans; today it’s not so much. In fact, the best CNN could do was to say elections would be close.
Early voting in 39 states and the District of Columbia is equal to or greater than the record pace set in the 2018 midterms. While we do not know how people are voting, we do know who’s voting, and here there’s cause for concern. Old people are voting in droves; young people are not turning in their ballots, yet.
Locally this is the case, at least for now. According to Urbanist San Diegan Tom Defranco, who emphasizes that we shouldn’t draw conclusions yet:
65+ electorate have accounted for 46% (26.5k) of all returned ballots despite having only 22% of the electorate.
18-34 have accounted for 13% (7.3k) of all returned ballots despite having 28% of the electorate.
50+ San Diego electorate, despite being the smaller group of voters, has more than 2X the amount of early votes of 18-49 San Diego electorate.
My bet on how this election turns out is contingent on where or not YOU chose to vote. It’s the only poll that matters. Based on the response (17,000+ visitors) on my election coverage thus far, I am encouraged.
Here’s the advice (yay, me!) that was in my mailbox this morning from Hillcrest Indivisible:
Start working on your ballot NOW (and encourage EVERYONE you know to vote). Remind your friends and family members that NOTHING is assured at this point and every vote is important.
Review Voting Guides: Concerning the propositions, ignore tv ads. Use voting guides, the newspaper, and talk to informed people you trust. There are several guides to consider:
California Voting Guide (sent to all voters)
Doug Porter's Voter Guide--this is the "go to" guide for progressive voters, written by veteran area journalist Doug Porter and linked here. Doug is an Indivisible member and evaluates races and issues in an honest and forthright way. He was the primary author of the Indivisible Voter Guides in 2018 and 2020. https://bit.ly/3ywh1ZO
San Diego County Democratic Party. For more centrist recommendations, go here: https://www.sddemocrats.org/measures.html
Judges: These are the recommendations of Attorney and HI member Jenn French and also of the San Diego County Democratic Party
Supreme Court and Court of Appeal justices: YES on all (gubernatorial appointments vetted through the state bar’s Commission on Judicial Nominees Evaluation)
Seat No. 35: Rebecca Kanter
Seat No. 36: Peter Singer
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Our local wanna-be fashies are gathering on the Waterfront on Saturday afternoon. The “Freedom Revival” is an outgrowth of the nationwide right wing pep rallies (featuring Mike Flynn) and local organizing connected with the Awaken Church.
From the Associated Press/Frontline expose’:
Flynn, 63, has used public appearances to energize voters, along with political endorsements to build alliances and a network of nonprofit groups — one of which has projected spending $50 million — to advance the movement, an investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series “Frontline” has found. He has drawn together election deniers, mask and vaccine opponents, insurrectionists, Proud Boys, and elected officials and leaders in state and local Republican parties. Along the way, the AP and “Frontline” documented, Flynn and his companies have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars for his efforts.
Republican candidates for Statewide office, along with local luminaries from the anti-mask set (Amy Reichert & Jim Desmond) will take the stage at the County Building, in addition to an assortment of extremists representing the forced birth movement, Christian nationalism, and anti-vaxxers.
The social media posts promoting this even haven’t received much engagement on social media, which could explain why they’re short 40% of the money to pull this off.
They have been recruiting –unsuccessfully we hear– non-official poll watchers. This tactic is being used nationally by far right groups hoping to intimidate voters trying to vote early using drop boxes.
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As the election nears, big money is flowing into some local races. All of it goes to so-called independent expenditure committees, which are not supposedly coordinated by candidates. This funding at a late date is in large part intentional, so candidates can or cannot use this information in campaigns.
Here’s a glance at the reports on late donations filed last week provided by the San Diego City Clerk’s office.
There is significant movement of funds from one committee to another; it’s traceable, but difficult to know where funds were actually spent. The Chamber of Commerce’s income from Sempra and AT&T employees, which was donated in support of Kent Lee is an example.
One target for big bucks is the City Council race in District 6.
Monies spent opposing Tommy Hough totaled: Roughly $47,000
Big donors were: San Diego Works (Local Labor), Community Voices
Monies Spent Supporting Kent Lee totaled: Roughly $43,500
Big donors were: San Diego Works (Local Labor), SD Police officers Assn., SD Downtown Partnership, Chamber of Commerce.
Miriam Soto, who is running for City Council in Poway, has clearly drawn the ire of the San Diego Police Officers Association, to the tune of roughly $25,000.
Two ballot measures in San Diego are attracting much funding
Yes on C (Midway Height Limits): $140,000 from Midway Rising, the consortium with the inside track on development.
Yes on D (Project Labor Option for City Contracts): $325,000
Big Donors were Bricklayers Political Action, San Diego Building Trades, IBEW Sacramento, Southern California Partnership for Jobs, and Georgette Gomez for Assembly campaign fund
No on D (Project Labor Option for City Contracts): $110,000
Big Donors: Western Electrical Contractors, Associated Building Contractors, Building Industry Association, Associated General Contractors.
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Just in case you know somebody who actually thinks that GOP economics is functional for doing anything but making the rich richer, show them this:
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Email me at: WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com