Waiting, Watching for Trump to Go Down
Everybody in a position to actually know what was going on with the NYC case said: “Huh?”
These are exciting days for news junkies like myself. A former President is about to face the criminal justice system.
The pace of news surrounding Donald J Trump’s legal challenges has intensified over the past couple of weeks, with indications from a Georgia grand jury, a lawsuit accusing him of rape, developments in the feds’ investigation of misplaced classified documents, and the Manhattan District Attorney’s “Stormy Daniels” case making headlines.
An arrest in any of these cases, in terms of both its historic nature and its potential impact on our political system could be the most important news there’s been in a very long time.
Over the weekend it’s been like the good old days (Watergate) with the New York Times dropping stories full of amazing detail surrounded by the fog of denial that anything big –like Democracy itself– just might be involved.
On Friday it leaked out via NBC that various law enforcement agencies were getting together a plan for how a certain high profile defendant would surrender to authorities in New York city.
On Saturday, the big guy started the day with an ALL CAPS blast on the Russian funded Social Truth platform, announcing his arrest this coming Tuesday, and urging supporters to protest. Within hours, he sent a fundraising email to supporters while his lickspittles in establishment politics boosted the message, starting with House Leader McCarthy promising a Congressional investigation.
From a propaganda point of view, Trump’s aim was to make the arrest/indictment the issue, crowding out media coverage of what he’d done to provoke an investigation.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, and a man who recently uttered disparaging words about his former boss, said the imminent arrest was “deeply troubling.”
Here’s Trump, stirring the pot:
“IT’S TIME!!!” he wrote. “WE JUST CAN’T ALLOW THIS ANYMORE. THEY’RE KILLING OUR NATION AS WE SIT BACK & WATCH. WE MUST SAVE AMERICA! PROTEST, PROTEST, PROTEST!!!”
Trumpi-logic apparently fooled the Chairwoman, since there could be no leak if the probable defendant announced it on social media.
Longtime ally, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and other supporters made statements to the effect that any legal action against Trump would only strengthen his 2024 campaign for President.
Trump attorney Susan Necheles, said the Truth Social post was “based on the media reports.”
Everybody in a position to actually know what was going on with the NYC case said: “Huh?”
Donald Trump’s excellent history of ignoring facts to promote his take on things should have been the first thing considered by those repeating the arrest scenario. After all, the man uttered 30,573 lies and/or misleading claims while he was president, according to the Washington Post.
After all is said and done, I’d say there IS a good chance the former President will be indicted this week. In the meantime, journalist Marcy Wheeler had two observations worth repeating:
The Speaker of the House wants to intervene in a case about fucking a sex worker.
Trump once again got journalists to willingly serve as his incitement mules.
Tuesday is a longshot guess.
Trump’s lawyers have exercised their right to have a witness present to the grand jury. Robert Costello, a lawyer who briefly represented Cohen may appear before the grand jury on Monday in Manhattan.
Cohen may then be called to address/rebut Costello. A felony witness tampering charge may emerge from this testimony.
These are all maybes, uttered to NYT shadower Maggie Haberman.
What happens, if and when an indictment come down, according to Reuters:
In the near term, any indictment would require Trump to travel to the district attorney's office in downtown New York to surrender. In white-collar cases, the defendant's lawyers and prosecutors typically agree on a date and time, rather than arresting the person at home.
Trump would have his fingerprints and mugshot taken and would appear for arraignment in court. He would likely be released on his own recognizance and allowed to head home, experts said.
Trump's lawyer, Joe Tacopina, told CNBC on Friday that Trump would surrender if charged. If Trump refused to come in voluntarily, prosecutors could seek to have him extradited from Florida, where he currently resides.
In an ironic twist, DeSantis would typically have to give formal approval for an extradition demand in his capacity as governor, though Florida legal experts said his role would be strictly administrative.
An ordinary criminal case in New York lasts for more than a year from indictment to trial, and Trump's case is far from typical. It’s entirely possible he’ll have to stand trial in the middle of the 2024 presidential campaign, or even after Election Day. If elected and convicted, he would not have the power to pardon himself of state charges.
Trump's interactions with the (civil) legal system all have one thing in common: dragging the cases out for as long as possible in the hope of changes in the lineup of power players.
Former US Attorney Joyce Vance, writing at Civil Discourse, reminds us what will occur is a process, not a Law & Order TV show..
There is little likelihood that what’s about to take place will be straightforward or an easy path. Prosecutions require proof beyond a reasonable doubt of all elements of any charged crimes. Conviction requires a unanimous jury. Don’t get discouraged by early skirmishes. This is a marathon, not a sprint. But we are entering the season where the rule of law, in the form of both criminal and civil cases, is coming for Trump.
A more serious thing to consider in the short run will be the “lone wolves” in MAGA culture looking to make a statement.
Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg has responded to the call for Trump supporters to protest his expected arrest with an email to employees saying, “we do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York.”
The House Freedom Caucus types, according to Politico, intend to take their pot shots from DC.
In the short term, Republicans are discussing firing off letters summoning employees of the Manhattan DA’s office for sworn testimony, according to a GOP official familiar with the plans. The potential request comes amid speculation about why the hush-money case was suddenly resurrected after being back-burnered by both state and federal prosecutors.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans are not final, noted that McCarthy, a longtime Trump ally and close friend, is “fully supportive and pushing folks to be aggressive here.”
The name George Soros is being bandied about by Republicans on the conspiracy beat. You’d think they’d get tired of flogging this dead horse, but given the rise in anti-Semitic hate crimes and rhetoric, I guess it makes sense to at least tip the hat to the whack-a-doodle MAGA set.
Always bombast Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green has issued a statement saying Antifa was to be behind anything bad occurring. Or Big Government.
Some loyalists on social media are discussing surrounding Mar-a-Lago to prevent the former president from going to New York to surrender. I’ve even seen talk about weapons that could be useful in attacking helicopters or other low flying vehicles.
I’m reminded of a comedic bit imagining a Fox News broadcaster of a showdown between the NRA and military showdown. (It’s very funny-NSFW)
If an arrest were to occur at the end of the week it could cause problems on Saturday for a highly symbolic “first” Trump rally of the season in Waco, Texas.
The city is infamous for the 1993 law enforcement siege of the compound belonging to the religious cult Branch Davidians, who are now considered martyrs in far right circles. Also, in 2015 Waco was the location of a shootout between biker gangs and local police resulting in zero convictions following 177 arrests.
What’s next? Staging a rally in Oklahoma City, where Timothy McVeigh and co-conspirators blew up the federal building in 1995? There is no bottom for this man.
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Multi-headed Trump image by @beeple
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Trump is a bully and he is once again attempting to bully people into doing things the way he wants them done. I daresay most of America longs for him to be indicted multiple times. I now I do. I impatiently await the DOJ indictment for 1/6. The DOJ also needs to indict a lot of sitting Republican politicians for that. I really don't understand what is taking so long. The 1/6 Committee was thorough, explicitly detailed, and contained a list of names. DOJ, get on it.