War! What Is It Good For?
Conflict over Ukraine is seems inevitable.
The world as we know it is about to change. Again. Two years ago, the challenge was a virus. This time it’s a military standoff half a world away.
The real tragedy of the past couple of years beyond the lives lost, institutions weakened, and families broken has been the deepening of divisions domestically and internationally to the point where democracy itself is endangered.
I’ve come to the very sad realization that our legislative institutions in DC cannot sustain the guardrails of the electoral process once considered to be a common understanding. And now, we might get into a war to keep things interesting!
This time around, the Russians will have a role to play, and it will be confusing for people with a leftover Cold War outlook. There are lots of them, and it’s a bipartisan ailment.
The post WWII period was about ideology and brute force between superpowers overlaid with the end of colonial rule. This ain’t that. It’s complicated. The only sure thing is that the rich will get richer, and that’s true of just about everything these days.
What we’re about to see in Ukraine (and elsewhere) is a conflict shoring up the domestic power of an authoritarian and sowing discord between Western democracies viewed as a threat to Russian sovereignty.
Asked about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions, President Biden told reporters “I’m not so sure he is certain what he’s going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.” Biden added that a full-scale invasion would be “the most consequential thing that’s happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War Two.”
The same people who pumped up anti-Asian sentiments last time around will be defending Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian adventure for reasons just as indecipherable as their Wuhan fixation.
The assets created by various Russian entities in the American right will be called upon to do their part to deny what’s obvious, distract attention through “what-aboutism,”deflect questions about their own patriotism, and do their best to keep a divided country fighting with itself.
As ridiculous as this might have sounded even a few years ago, the Russians will be able to count on the Trumpian GOP to work at blunting any response from this side of the Atlantic.
Tucker Carlson looks to be the Tokyo Rose (WWII Axis Propagandist) of this era. He’s bought into the notion that it’s the U.S. fomenting conflict, ignoring the nationality of troops massing and the nature of cyber-aggressions underway. And the Russian media is loving it!
The Kremlin expects to get concessions from the United States by evoking the threat of World War III as the sword of Damocles hanging over the world’s head. They’re demanding the U.S. make guarantees about Ukraine that can’t be made within the framework of international relations as currently practiced.
Russia’s foreign ministry says Moscow is seeking guarantees from the west including provisions requiring NATO forces to leave Romania and Bulgaria, countries that joined NATO in 1997.
The U.S. and its NATO allies have exploited their advantage in the region since the fall of the Soviet Union, positioning forces in places that would have been unthinkable two generations ago. An elected government in Ukraine fell in 2014 with a not-so-gentle push from the west.
As far as the Russians are concerned, Ukraine being in the west’s camp represents an existential threat, especially since they consider the territory to be part of their homeland, a sentiment not generally shared by people who actually live in the country.
Conflict in the area will be considered a patriotic endeavor for Russians, but it needs to be short and sweet. Putin’s power depends on maintaining the illusion of his nation rising as a power to be reckoned with. Getting involved in a messy forever war represents a danger to the current masters of the Kremlin.
Warning on Wednesday that "nuclear powers need to tread carefully around each other," attorney and activist Mitchell Zimmerman argued:.
"Ukraine has the right to defend itself, the right to conduct its internal affairs as it pleases, and the right not to be dismembered by a powerful neighbor," he wrote for OtherWords. "However, it's a sad reality of international affairs that powerful nations tell themselves that they (but no one else) have the right to meddle in the affairs of weaker neighbors."
"Avoiding war doesn't necessarily mean that the rights and interests of smaller nations have to be abandoned," he continued. "But practically speaking, the path to peace does require mutual accommodation by all parties."
The United States and its allies aren’t in agreement over just where the line is that the Russians need to cross to merit retaliation. The bigger powers in Europe aren’t inclined to respond with massive shows of force to “minor incursions,” even if they might ultimately topple the existing Ukraine government.
Countries along the Eastern frontier of Europe, and the Baltic nations in particular, have a much higher level of concern over any Russian military actions, since they’ve endured constant low level harassment in recent years. And they have bitter memories of the Soviet occupation.
Right now it looks like the Russians and the Americans are prepared to up the ante until somebody calls the other’s bluff.
The Russians can move quickly to seize whatever parts of Ukraine they deem to be strategically necessary and there’s little that can be done to stop a conventional military attack. Additionally, I would expect some cyber operations aimed at countries deemed hostile.
The U.S. and its allies are prepared to respond to any military incursion through support of local insurgents, armed and trained as only a country with the world’s fattest military checkbook can do. We’ll soon see if these insurgents are for real, or if they’re just another bunch of grifters.
Economic sanctions aimed at Russian entities are also in the works, but the world’s trading and currency systems aren’t what they used to be.
Unless U.S. forces are directed to occupy several small countries currently enabling the movement of cryptocurrencies, drugs, and unsanctioned arms shipments, all the tough talk in the world isn’t going to have near the promised impact being sold to American reporters.
If this all sounds like something we’ll be able to ignore because it’s on the other side of the world, think again. As the after effects of the pandemic have shown, the world’s economies are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. And some of our biggest trading partners can be expected to see opportunity in chaos.
The bottom line here is that there can be no winners in a modern day armed conflict between industrialized nations. Once this can of worms is opened, I expect further ramifications.
The U.S. created an empire in the post WWII period, and empires are nearly impossible to sustain in the long run. Rather than unravel (if that’s possible) unequal relationships, we’ve let the military industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned about run the show.
Thinking and acting outside the box in any situation is a tough thing to do, and it will be a lot of work for those of us with a vision of a better kind of future. But between the looming climate crisis, an unsustainable economic trajectory, and the pro-war propaganda about to be unleashed upon us, choosing none-of-the-above as a strategy as a progressive response to this crisis is the best alternative.
All the big players in this situation are vessels for further economic inequality and getting caught up in their political gamesmanship is a waste of time.
That doesn’t mean we overlook opportunities for short-term gains, like upcoming elections. Rolling over and playing dead in the face of authoritarianism is never a good idea.
The work of creating re-imagined institutions and a democracy not beholden to an economic minority needs to be talked about at kitchen tables, workplaces and other settings.
Challenges arising in day-to-day normal functionality provide opportunities for exploring the possibilities of how a different path forward might look. And we must all be dedicated to avoiding replacing our old bosses with new bosses running things the same old way.
Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com