What's Behind the Campaign to Recall Governor Gavin Newsom?
A First Look at Upcoming Elections
Yeah, yeah. I know. Y’all are still not recovered from the energy expended in the 2020 elections.
Still, the next round of candidates and measures are already getting busy. Locally, the wild card is redistricting. Nobody really knows for sure who their constituents will be. I’m not scared by that kind of uncertainty and will be posting several columns in the coming days.
The highest profile effort underway is actually about this year, namely the recall campaign aimed at Gov. Newsom.
Although polling shows the incumbent with an approval level in the high fifties, Republicans have tapped into a vein of discontent over restrictions connected to the COVID-19 epidemic.
They claim to have over two thirds of the signatures required to call for a special election, and successfully convinced a judge to give them until March 17, to collect the 1,495,709 signatures needed.
However, they’ll be making a big mistake if they don’t manage to go way past that number, given the number of measures, etc, that have fallen short once the signatures are audited.
In total, five recall petitions against Newsom have failed to qualify for the ballot. This one might succeed.
A recall ballot has two components: a yes or no vote for recall, and the names of replacement candidates.If the recall measure fails, the replacement candidate votes are ignored.
The recall measure itself is successful if it passes by a majority. In that case, the replacement candidate with a simple plurality of votes wins the office. This plurality clause is what former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer sees as his path to Sacramento.
Each of his steps up the political ladder have been via special elections. In January 2006, Faulconer defeated Lorena Gonzalez following Councilmember Michael Zucchet’s resignation. In 2013, he defeated city councilmember David Alvarez following Mayor Bob Filner’s departure.
The wingnuttier remnant of the Republican Party has already decided that Kevin Faulconer is too moderate for their taste.
Carl DeMaio’s Reform California group has already put up a website called faulconerfailures to remind voters that San Diego’s ex-mayor has an awareness of environmental issues (among other things.)
This translates into the claim Faulconer “supports the crazy Green New Deal ideas advanced by socialist Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders.” Etcetera, etcetera…
Another Republican candidate eyeing the Governor’s seat is John Cox, who lost to Newsom in 2018 by more than 24 points. Cox, who’s “Trumpy” on policy issues without officially embracing the persona of the ex-president, is rich enough to overcome the GOP’s fundraising disadvantage in California.
His track record, however, proves that money by itself isn’t enough to win elections. He’s 0-5 in Illinois (Congress, Senate, Cook County Recorder of Deeds) , California (Governor) and national elections (President, 2008).
Democrats have taken notice of the latest recall campaign as it’s gained steam.
Gov. Newsom issued a statement last June warning of the “partisan activists supporting President Trump and his dangerous agenda to divide America... trying to overturn the definitive will of California voters and bring Washington's broken government to California with this recall effort.”
A couple of weeks ago, the state Democratic Party held a press conference, the point of which was apparently to tie the recall effort to the Capitol insurrection of January 6th.
Ben Christopher at CalMatters:
In a press conference this afternoon, the state’s largest political party denounced the germinating effort to ask voters to recall Newsom, likening it to the mob laden with white supremacists and conspiracy theorists that stormed the U.S. capitol building last week in a fruitless effort to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
“Some of the same individuals and groups who were encouraged by California Republican leaders and (who) attacked the people’s house are also engaged in a recall effort against Governor Gavin Newsom right here in California,” said party chairperson Rusty Hicks. “This recall effort, which really ought to be called ‘the California coup,’ is being led by right-wing conspiracy theorists, white nationalists, anti-vaxxers and groups who encourage violence on our democratic institutions.”
Hicks was followed by a number of elected Democrats who reiterated the argument. Fresno City Councilmember Nelson Esparza called the recall effort “treasonous.” Former Assemblymember and current San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria said he appreciated “the opportunity to draw a straight line from the horrible events of last week in Washington D.C. to the current events here in California.”
Ultimately, the Democrats are right about who’s really backing this effort. But the “coup” packaging didn’t fly for lots of people.
From Politico:
“Gavin Newsom is the best salesman — driving more people to sign this recall than we could ever do ourselves," said Orrin Heatlie of Folsom, the lead organizer of RecallGavin2020.com, with 75 volunteer groups statewide and 250,000 followers on social media.
Heatlie, a recall organizer, has retired after serving 25 years as a sergeant with the Yolo County Sheriff’s Office — where he was a lead negotiator in crisis response and hostage negotiations. In recent months, he has expressed views on social media that have been criticized as extreme. In April, Heatlie posted on Facebook, “The same people calling me a science, climate denier are claiming there are multiple genders, and they want me to vaccinate. I am soooooooooo NOT!” In another post, he suggested it might be a good idea to “microchip” undocumented immigrants.
There’s also the matter of “dark money” backing the recall campaign. The former chair of the Federal Election Commission has filed a complaint against a major contributor, alleging that a “shell company” was being used to hide the identities of its donors.
From the Los Angeles Times:
The complaint by Ann Ravel, which was filed with the state attorney general’s office and Fair Political Practices Commission, is focused on a $500,000 contribution to Rescue California, one of the campaign organizations supporting the recall effort. The donation was made by Irvine-based Prov. 3:9 LLC.
Ravel said that “dark money” contributions, so called because the identities of the donors are not revealed, are not allowed in California because state law requires the true sources of campaign donations to be publicly disclosed. Ravel urged the state agencies to immediately launch investigations and to use their subpoena power to determine the identities of the donors.
“The entity appears to be nothing more than a shell company being used to evade disclosure of the person or persons funding the recall contribution,” Ravel said in the complaint. “But the people of California are entitled to know who is trying to force a costly special recall election that could cost $80 [million to] $100 million just months before the primary elections for the same office. Such a dark money scheme is antithetical to a functioning democracy and in violation of the State’s comprehensive
The real issue driving the recall campaign is so-called resentment over restrictions ordered because of the coronavirus pandemic. Small time politicians like San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond and right wing media outlets like KUSI-TV have been promoting this issue non-stop.
And it turns out the “resentment” issue, like so many others in the Republican arsenal, is at least in part a white privilege question.
How do I know this?
Newly released findings from the USC Dornsife Understanding Coronavirus in America Study connect the dots between whiteness and maskholes. Their overall analysis suggests that people in general are negligent when it comes to wearing a mask in situations involving people from outside their households.
But...
Although 83% of adults agree wearing a mask provides some protection from COVID-19, “White people were the least likely to consistently wear a mask (46%) while in close contact with people from other households, compared to Black people (67%), Latinos (63%) and people of other races (65%).
In case you haven't noticed, most of the high profile drivers of anti mask activities are deficient in melanin pigments. And the anti-maskers have a huge overlap with the Newsom.hates.my.business types.
Is racism the only reason Republicans are seeking to recall Newsom? Absolutely not. The GOP needs wedge issues to drive fundraising and visibility. And the Governor’s missteps, like the French Laundry episode, certainly have given fuel to the fire.
Ultimately, the success or failure of a recall effort --should it make the ballot-- will hinge on the success of efforts to vaccinate the state’s population. Come election day, if things are looking like they’ll return to normal (and Democrats can get more emergency assistance through the Congress) chances are the GOP will get less than 40% support.
On the other hand, if the recall election was held tomorrow, we might be looking at Kevin Faulconer ruling the roost.
Next up: San Diego City Council Elections for Districts 2,4,6, & 8.
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Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com