Who’s to Blame for Inflation?

Hint: Us . . . and Climate Change (Us)

Editor’s note: an updated version of this post.

Unless you have been purposefully avoiding the news channels, you are probably used to the daily inflation affirmations. Usually these take the form of titillating us with some new record gas price, but may also include food prices or other commodities. Less clear from those reports is what or who the villain behind these increases might be. That is, unless you watch Fox news, in which case, of course it is Joe Biden, their villainous Everyman. 

But that still leaves the rest of us who are not doped up on Fox BS without an answer. And news journalists of various stripes have done a pretty consistently lousy job of helping connect the dots to reasonable explanations (one notable exception would be NPR’s Kai Ryssdal). 

Could it be wage inflation?

Pandemic relief?

The pandemic itself (which is not actually over). 

Corporate greed? Over consolidation and lack of competition? 

Certainly, the war in Ukraine is responsible for a chunk of energy prices, as is big oil’s desire to cash in on lean markets. 

With the possible exception of pandemic relief funds (the effects of which faded around the end of 2021), all of the above factors have had a significant but, I would argue, not decisive roll in our current inflation dilemma. And combined, they certainly don’t explain the full picture. 

So, what about the rest of it?

I turns out there is one villain that hasn’t been getting the credit it deserves, and (spoiler alert, it’s not Joe Biden) 

It is climate change (and by extension us).

Inflation is, at its core, a measure of scarcity (lots of consumers seeking too few products). Sometimes that is the result of artificial or transient forces (listed above). But as of late, a substantial amount of the diverse price increases giving us sticker shock in store isles is traceable to a looming disaster we were told was still somewhere off in the future. 

Climate change is actually here, and a growing chunk of the inflation we are seeing is rooted in its effects. What we are experiencing is an ominous preview of sorts, complete with foreboding music. 

Looking for some nice ribeye steak? So apparently, is climate change. Over 2,000 Cattle recently expired in record heat, and we are a fair distance from the heights of summer heat. And, contrary to rightwing conspiracy nuts, it was not Bill Gates’ fault. (where do these nuts come up with this crap). 

Take as another example, the recent baby formula shortage. Although the shortage itself wasn’t originally caused by climate change, it is definitely being prolonged by it. Abbott Labs’ Michigan baby formula manufacturing facility had no sooner restarted production then it got flooded out by a massive storm complex. It will be weeks until the facility has been re-sanitized and is operational. 

Even large behemoths like Amazon are not immune. Back in December an important large warehouse complex of theirs in Illinois was obliterated by a climate change enhanced storm. And in a part of the country that rarely sees powerful EF-3 tornadoes.  

Of course, certain areas like Kentucky are prone to damaging storms, but they are facing new challenges as these deadly storms become ever more potent and cut wider and longer swaths across our country: 

Looking for Sriracha Sauce? Well, good luck. Drought put a kibosh on this year’s chili crop, and without this key ingredient, the plant will have to shutter for the rest of the year. 

These are only a few small examples of a large and growing phenomenon that is not only here to stay, it is only beginning. Crops will increasingly get baked by scorching temps, or washed away by torrential downpours. Industrial infrastructure will get flooded out. Transportation will be disrupted by washed out roads/rails and dangerous skies. Supply chains will further buckle as nations grapple with climate induced shortages. Power generation, sanitation and fresh water will all suffer increasing outages, which will in turn lower production of key goods. 

Even COVID itself has roots in climate change. The encroachment into wild areas for arable lands and food is being driven in part by lower crop yields that flow from climate change. Diseases are gaining an advantage as species are increasingly distressed by heat waves and other climate phenomena. Which means more pandemics are in our future, equally or perhaps even more disruptive to the global economy. 

How do we counter climate inflation? Conservation, cooperation and a speedy move away from fossil fuels. 

Clearly, Biden is not the source of our inflation, though he certainly has levers he can call upon to help deal with our emerging normal. To some extent, he is already triaging acute shortages by utilizing the Defense Production Act, as he has with baby formula shipments. He will likely have to lean on this tool more, at least to the extent that Congress doesn’t reign him in. 

In the arena of oil, the harsh reality is that the majority of our nation’s machinery and transit is completely dependent on oil. And that will take decades to undo. Especially since we passed on the Build Back Better agenda that had billions in transition funds (thanks Manchin/Sinema). Biden is deploying the nation’s strategic reserves in an attempt to rebalance oil markets, but that alone will not correct for real and fabricated deficits. 

Surprisingly, the most potent tool we have, conservation, is a tool that Biden seems to be deliberately sidestepping at the moment. Conservation could be used to leverage reluctant producers to step up production of key goods. But more importantly, it could go a long way to rebalancing supply and demand, and ensuring adequate food and commodities for poorer nations. 

But there is no sidestepping the reality that no president can stop what is afoot. Inflation is a phenom that is global and probably here to stay until climate change begins to subside. And we are getting a mere taste of what is to come. Nations will need to conserve, coordinate and cooperate like never before if the worst calamities are to be avoided. Wars are already an increasing side effect of climate change, and a gruesome luxury we frankly cannot afford. And yet, Putin is demonstrating how a sociopathic egomaniac can weaponize climate induced scarcity to exercise his imperialist fantasies. 

The best solution we have at hand to deal with climate powered inflation is to accelerate our transition from fossil fuels as rapidly as possible. In the mean time, and until our climate calms again, we will need to accept a world less amenable to conveniences and excess. We need to mobilize individuals and nations as the US and allies did to fight WWII if we have any hope of avoiding WWIII. 

Current generations are mostly responsible for this plight, and we will have to be responsible for its resolution. And blaming Biden simply won’t do. We all share the blame in this, because we did this.  It was us.