Despite another prediction not coming through, presidential wannabes are lining up for a shot at the Republican nomination to be president.
South Carolina’s Senator Tim Scott made his announcement on Monday. Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to jump into the fray momentarily alongside former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, wealthy biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and –soon – former Vice President Mike Pence.
(An indication of the challenges Pence faces is represented by USA Today’s forgetting to list the former VP in their survey of potential Republican presidential candidates.)
BREAKING– HA! HA! HA! - Ron DeSantis will launch his presidential bid with Elon Musk Via NBC News
The plan is not without its risks. Musk’s international star power could serve to outshine DeSantis, who — while a heavyweight in Republican political circles — is not nearly as well known. And DeSantis may not want to have to answer for all of Musk’s positions — potentially down to individual tweets — such as his comments about progressive megadonor George Soros that have earned the ire of Jewish leaders.
Other Republicans thinking wistfully about the top job include Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota and Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says he’s not running, but is throwing a lot of shade Trump’s way. And there’s always Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, as soon as he gets back from Cancun (JK).
At this particular moment, none of them have a snowball’s chance in hell against front runner and former President Donald J Trump. They can’t get the media coverage. They won’t drum up enough donors. And a significant part of the Republican voter bloc would vote for a snowball if Trump told them to.
Here’s conservative columnist Jonah Goldberg in the Los Angeles Times describing the biggest challenge when it comes to opposing the former president:
Trump won in 2016, and he’s even convinced a lot of people that he won in 2020. His biggest fans didn’t think his presidency was a disaster, they actually think he made America great for a brief shining moment. And even Trump’s less committed fans don’t like it when Republicans criticize him. They have no problem with Trump slanderously comparing his opponents to child molesters or pedophiles , but criticizing Trump is off-limits.
This is the dilemma his opponents face. When Nikki Haley , the former South Carolina governor, announced she was running for president, she said, “I don’t put up with bullies. And when you kick back, it hurts them more if you’re wearing heels.” But when asked about a civil jury verdict holding Trump guilty of sexual abuse, her response was “I’m not going to get into that.”
The point isn’t that Haley and all the others, save for Chris Christie , former New Jersey governor, who relishes a fight, are cowards for not going after Trump. They’d all throw the kitchen sink at Trump if they thought it’d work. But after years of institutionalized cowardice with regard to Trump, the Republican Party now has a sizable number of voters who like the worst stuff about Trump. They want the entertainment — the policy stuff is incidental. They enjoy watching Trump take the low road, and even those voters who might wince at some of Trump’s antics still recoil at anyone making hay of it. Voter miseducation is real.
The cruelty is the point of GOP politics these days and Trump’s lying mouth can spew venom better than anybody running in the primary. The general election may be another matter.
But…But…But… All this speculating about the outcome of any campaign in 2024 assumes that the political and economic landscape will remain the same. My view is that big change is coming sooner than any of us realize.
The first changemaker could be Trump’s legal problems.
E. Jean Carroll is adding Trump’s stupid rant during the CNN townhall into her still-pending case regarding punitive damages in the defamation claim filed in 2019.
The new filing asks the court to permit Carroll to update Carroll I to include the fact of the verdict against Trump, along with his comments about her on CNN and his social media posts on Truth Social. If the judge agrees, Carroll could use those allegations to ask the judge to resolve the matter in her favor without a trial or she could offer evidence to support the allegations if the case proceeds to trial. They would also be available to support a new damages claim.
The former president has already pleaded not-guilty to 34 felony counts tied to falsification of records connected with the payoff to Stormy Daniels. His campaign immediately started selling merchandise based on the indictment, which gives an idea of how they're not taking this case seriously.
Because the Constitution does not require that the president be free from indictment, conviction or prison, it follows that he still may run for the office and may even serve as president. And, if his history of delay tactics is any indication, Trump’s term in office could be over before he could face any consequences.
There are more legal perils ahead for Donald Trump, including a potential indictment in August for his attempt to change 2020’s election results in Georgia.
Department of Defense Special Prosecutor Jack Smith has many ongoing investigations, some of which appear to be headed before a grand jury. The content of any indictments –unless there’s a real bombshell– isn’t likely to influence his most die-hard supporters, meaning any opposing candidate from the GOP will have to convince enough non-supporters to vote to make a difference.
However, the weight of Trump’s legal situations will impact his chances in the general election, and if there are any non-trumpy gatekeepers left in the Republican party, he could face challenges at the convention.
The other game-changer on the horizon is the potential for debt ceiling negotiations to fall through, leading to a cascading effect on the economy and impacting nearly all Americans. What many people don’t realize is that, even if politicians have a change of heart following a stock market crash, the damage to the creditworthiness of the United States will be long term.
Everything will cost more, including the government. And borrowing to cover those costs will become expensive leading to inflation and a degradation of the expansion that’s always fueled our economy.
When you think about all the downsides to a default it’s even possible to consider that’s something the nihilists in the GOP might find desirable. It’s also possible that irrational behavior over the debt ceiling could alienate the right wing billionaires funding Republican outrages these days.
What happens when/if Federal workers don’t get paid? When Social Security checks don’t arrive? When banks fail because the collateral they hold is severely devalued.
The point is: we don’t know. But it would be no surprise if the events in question would cause an unforeseen upheaval in the political landscape.
So don’t bet on Donald Trump either making it through the convention or not. And don’t ignore the wannabes vying for a spot should he fail.
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Notes from My Morning Readings:
CNN ratings tank alongside its reputation after Trump 'town hall' Via Daily Kos. Is this a sign?
Now the numbers are in one week after the broadcast, and as The Daily Beast reports, Licht’s effort to turn CNN into a right-wing news engine resulted in exactly the sort of disaster anyone might have predicted: bringing CNN its lowest ratings in eight years, sinking to less than half the viewers of MSNBC, and even falling below radical-right outlet Newsmax.
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JFK Jr to appear in San Diego Via campaign site. They’re selling tickets for an appearance on Memorial Day at Humphrey’s by the Bay in support of the conspiracy-centric candidate’s campaign. (Tin foil hats optional.) There was a link for “An Evening with RFK” at the Awaken Church Balboa campus, but it’s now been deactivated.
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Majority of book ban requests were made by only 11 people: analysis Via Washington Post (So much for the Parents Rights Movement.)
A small number of people were responsible for most of the book challenges, The Post found. Individuals who filed 10 or more complaints were responsible for two-thirds of all challenges. In some cases, these serial filers relied on a network of volunteers gathered together under the aegis of conservative parents’ groups such as Moms for Liberty.
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I will never vote for any of these Republicans. In fact, I have never yet voted for any Republican. I thoroughly research everyone all the way down the ballot.
As for RFK Jr appearing in San Diego. A Great Big UGH to that. How old was he when Bobbie was murdered? I find it hard to believe any of the Kennedys could have turned out the way he did.