Will California Republicans Unite Behind One Candidate?

For the next two weeks, barring an unforced error by Gov. Gavin Newsom, California Republicans will be trying to establish themselves as “the one” for the party to (mostly) unify behind.

Given the state of the CAGOP, it’s a long shot, but it’s a necessary exercise. With 46 candidates on the recall ballot, the majority of whom nobody’s ever heard of, a winning campaign--provided the Governor is to be recalled-- might only need 30% of those moving on to answer Question #2 (picking a replacement). 

California Republican Party officials are meeting this weekend to hash out the rules for endorsing a recall candidate. An actual endorsement, should one be made possible by a last minute rule change, won’t take place for another couple of weeks: just before ballots are mailed out.

If a GOP candidate gets the endorsement, the party would funnel resources to that campaign. But such a move carries the risk of alienating supporters of the other Republican hopefuls and depressing turnout.

There has been speculation that party leaders, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and state GOP chair Jessica Millan Patterson, are maneuvering to direct party support toward Kevin Faulconer.

Via Politico:

• Never mind that Democrats love to circulate an Oval Office photo of Faulconer and former President Donald Trump. Conservatives say Faulconer is too moderate — and that party insiders are trying to co-opt the recall energy stemming from the base. Putting the party's weight behind Faulconer, they argue, would dampen Republican turnout and help Newsom survive the recall.

• “The only difference between Gavin Newsom and Kevin Faulconer is that Faulconer doesn’t use gel on his hair," said Steve Frank, a longtime California conservative leader who unsuccessfully challenged Millan Patterson to lead the party last year.

Candidate John Cox, leading the charge against the party taking any position, held a press conference in Sacramento: 

https://twitter.com/RonNehring/status/1418318534036258816?s=20

Cox leads the pack in fundraising, with $5,300,000, five million of which came out of his own pocket.

None-the-less, all the candidates will be at least going through the motions. While San Diego’s former mayor may be considered the safe choice, he does not have the allegiance of many hard core party activists.

The Big Five guys, recall candidates John Cox, Larry Elder, Kevin Faulconer, Kevin Kiley and Doug Ose will appear in a televised debate on August 4, at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library.

Not participating will be Gov. Newsom (because he shouldn’t) and Caitlyn Jenner (because she’s in Australia shooting a tv show).

Conservative radio host Larry Elder is coming off a court victory allowing him to be listed on the ballot and a single poll showing him in the lead among recall candidates. He will be appearing in El Cajon on Sunday along with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at a rally organized by a group promoting the notion that opposing the Israeli government is the same as anti-Semitism. 

Sponsors for the event --which is expected to draw protestors--include virtually all of San Diego’s conservative evangelical churches and the Lincoln Club, a local funding mechanism for right wing electoral causes.

Elder has raised $556,000, putting him in third place among major candidates.

https://twitter.com/jeanguerre/status/1414752078434496522?s=20

Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer has decided that crime will be his big issue. Reading his comments on social media you’d think the entire state was under siege.

https://twitter.com/SD49ersPadres/status/1418400519186382849?s=20

A just-released report from the San Diego City Auditor’s Office found his administration failed to conduct proper due diligence before entering real estate deals worth more than $230 million.

His claims about competent leadership aren’t holding up under scrutiny for deals made on:

• The former Sempra headquarters at 101 Ash St., (bought in a deal that obscured the involvement of real estate mogul Doug Manchester). 

• A failed indoor skydiving facility (bought indirectly from political supporter and financier David Malcolm). 

• A leased Kearny Mesa property (unusable for five years due to needed improvements).

• A former motel bought for use as transitional housing for former drug offenders (paid over market value & failed to grasp needed costs to upgrade). 

Congressman Darrell Issa, who bankrolled the 2003 recall effort, is the only member of the state’s congressional delegation who has endorsed. He’s supporting Faulconer, who is in second place in campaign fundraising with $925,000.

Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, whose entry into the contest drew support from some original founders of the recall Newsom movement, along with San Diego County Supervisor Joel Anderson, is holding rallies up and down the state, ending Fresno on August 7. The conservative blog Red State has also announced its backing for Kiley. He is in seventh place in fundraising among major candidates with $135,000 in contributions.

Former congressman Doug Ose’s campaign has failed to gain much traction. His early calls for a series of regional debates didn’t work out. Ose is in fifth place in fundraising, with $158,000 total, including $32,400 in self funding.  

Reality show star Caitlyn Jenner has raised $360,000, Jenny Rae Le Roux, a business owner from Redding has collected $149,000 (including $100,000 in self funding) and YouTube star Kevin Paffrath has $124,000 (including $90,000 in self funding).

Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom has a giant fundraising edge (via opponents of the recall at $33,800,000) and Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 registration edge over Republicans, who last won statewide office 15 years ago.

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PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

When your mail-in ballot arrives in mid-August, what you must do is really simple. No hard choices will be asked of you. The ballot will look impressively large, but fear not. There are two questions, and you only need to answer one.

Question #1 asks if you think Gov. Gavin Newsom should be recalled. That should be a hard NO, even if you think he’s a corporate Democrat or worse.

Question #2 asks you to pick who you’d like to take his place from a long list consisting mostly of people you’ve never heard of and/or are losers. YOU CAN SKIP THIS ONE. 

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Email me at WritetoDougPorter@Gmail.com