Word of the Day - Embargo
By Timothy P. Holmberg
Definition - impose an official ban on (trade or a country or *commodity*).
Anyone who was around in the 70’s knows the term embargo well.
We could be hearing this term a lot more unless the situation in Gaza is ratcheted down to some level below genocidal. As Israel goes forward with its war against Hamas (war on Gaza and anyone in it), the possibility increases that several oil producing nations could ultimately impose an oil embargo on the US and Europe.
Iran has already proposed this, (albeit to a lukewarm reception). But OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) could be driven collectively to withhold some oil production from the market or simply exclude certain countries from purchasing their oil (as they did in 1973). The result of a modern embargo? $150 per barrel oil? $10/gallon gas, maybe $15? OPEC (which now includes Russia) has already scaled back production at the urging of Putin, who handsomely gains vital cash for his war machine in Ukraine. Certainly Putin and Russia would relish the imposition of an embargo or further cuts.
Some still think that this is a far off possibility, but as Israel unleashes increasing tragedy on Gaza, Arab leaders may not be able to resist their own populations. Certainly, political turmoil in these countries has already reached the boiling point.
An embargo may not have the US see rationing as we did in ‘73, since we can produce enough domestically to satisfy our own needs. But it will blow a gaping hole in a fragile global economy and ultimately, our own. Arab populations could be willing to endure the pain, since their populations are quite familiar with it. The US on the other hand, has no recent experience with such a harsh reality. And Europe, already stretched thin from massive inflation, will likely be thrown into chaos, both politically and economically.
And Biden, who’s entire political fortunes are tied to the economy, cannot afford to see even the hint of an embargo. While the nation may be solidly in favor of Israel (at the moment), that doesn’t mean they will not punish Biden for an economy dented by high gas prices. There is already broad anxiety and simmering discontent in the closely divided electorate. Even a small gust could blow the presidency and Congress towards Republican control. And given who the likely Republican nominee will be, this could be a disaster for Democrats and American democracy itself.
Biden has the example of Jimmy Carter to look back on with great dismay. In 1979, with the presidential election looming, Iran underwent a revolution that immediately dropped world oil production by 4%. Though not an embargo, the disruption resulted in lines at gas stations across the country and rationing. While some pegged the embarrassment of Americans being held hostage in Iran, the more likely culprit was the lingering pain to American pocketbooks.
Standing with Israel may be moral, or at least was until Israel’s self defense morphed into wanton revenge, if not worse. But it may now come with increasing costs to Americans directly. At some point, we may need to do more than just gently nudge Israel towards restraint inside corridors of the United Nations or private phone calls to Netanyahu. We may need to publicly draw a very bright line, and not leave a blank check for Israel’s right wing zealots to abuse.
Our own democracy may depend on it.
***
Bonus Post…