Watching and Waiting for Election Results
November 5, 2024, 1 pm, PST.
Friendly reminder that from now until Wednesday, we are living in the metaphorical equivalent of an airport lounge. Calories don't count. Money doesn't matter. No one will judge you for having a beer at 10am –@katieshowland
Election interference/ voter fraud/ other stuff at polling places.
Having spent several hours reading and listening to reporting on voting from around the country by multiple sources, I’m happy to report that actual attempts to interfere with people exercising their right to vote appear to be few and far between.
Fulton County, Georgia officials have asked permission to keep two polling locations open for about an extra 30 minutes tonight,” citing “five noncredible bomb threats, which led to the temporary evacuation of two polling locations.” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution quoted Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger as saying the threats originated in Russia.
Late yesterday, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency put out a joint bulletin cautioning that Russia and other foreign interests were using disinformation campaigns to undercut Americans’ confidence in the integrity of the election and stoke divisions.
What they didn’t say is that the highly localized election process makes actual vote interference (via cyber-intrusion) difficult and probably not worth the effort. The better bet in terms of influence is to manipulate public opinion after votes are cast.
Concerns about election violence are now mainstream: Recent polls found that one-third of Americans say they don’t have confidence in a peaceful transfer of power; among young voters, only 20 percent are confident there will be a peaceful transfer of power. In battleground states, 57 percent of voters are worried Trump supporters will turn violent if he loses; 31 percent fear Harris voters becoming violent if she loses. Across the country, nearly one in five Republicans say they want Trump to declare the election invalid and do “whatever it takes” if he loses, compared with 12 percent of Democrats if Harris loses.
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What to watch on election night.
If doom scrolling on social media isn’t your thing, there are 19 places offering live election coverage. TVNewser has a comprehensive guide to TV coverage plans across major broadcast, cable and digital platforms.
CNN’s Daniel Dale says you should "watch out for these election night falsehoods."
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As the campaigns close.
I saw a lot of sentiment across the media universe this morning holding that Donald Trump’s campaign had run out of gas and Harris/Walz was ascendent.
It’s certainly true that the Republican nominee’s rallies failed to draw expected crowds. Harris had no problem with crowd size, drawing 35,000 to a final rally on Philadelphia’s famous “Rocky” steps, with an array of celebrities as warm ups. Oprah Winfrey introduced the candidate.
But Mr. Trump, reaching the end of a grueling marathon of a campaign that began in 2022, looked visibly weary, battling fatigue in front of listless crowds, though he was relatively more upbeat and energized in Michigan. Ms. Harris, still appearing fresh after a three-month sprint, appealed for unity and pressed the contrast to her rival without uttering his name.
The final 48-hour contribution reports are in, and the numbers couldn’t be more telling.
Kamala Harris pulled in a staggering $4.8 million
Trump’s camp barely managed $19,579.45.
This isn’t just a difference in numbers; it’s a clear snapshot of where the energy, support, and confidence are headed.
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Libbing out..by those young whippersnappers
Taylor Lorenz shined her spotlight on the “latest irony-fueled coping mechanism,” aka younger internet denizens' late breaking boasts about supporting the Harris/Walz ticket.
“Libbing out" is an ironic embrace of mainstream Democratic politics, often by disillusioned young progressives. It is the process of abandoning all cynicism and wholeheartedly accepting the elitist, corporate-owned, deeply out of touch Democratic party, even if only for a moment.
Libbing out is about giving oneself permission to ignore all of the evil things the Democrats have done, the war crimes they've helped facilitate, the promises they've failed to keep, and their continued rightward shift, in order to indulge in delusional optimism. (*yes, Trump is worse, I get into that later.)
Over the past few days, thousands of social media users have begun proudly libmaxxing.
There. You won’t look stupid at Thanksgiving Dinner if your younger relatives start up with today’s lingo.
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Analysis Trepidations - Wave Metaphors Won’t Work
Both the 2020 and 2022 elections were characterized by the mirage of a Red Wave, whereby early Republican leads disappeared as Blue Wave votes (or vice versa) were counted, particularly in swing states.
Voting counts won’t be so predictable this time, in fact, I’d call the partisan reads on the election “Purple Haze” this time, due to changes in vote tabulation and Trump occasionally saying early voting wasn’t a sin.
The polls in Indiana are the first in the nation to close at 6:00 PM Eastern. Like Iowa, Indiana put in place a 10-week abortion ban with very few exceptions. If women voters are surging to the polls in response to state abortion bans, we will see it in Indiana first. The phenomenon would bode well for Georgia and potentially North Carolina.
As far as blowback from Latinos is concerned, watch the returns in Clark County, Nevada, Maricopa County, Arizona, and Osceola County. Such backlash could be a big deal in Pennsylvania, where there are more than 300,000 voting-age Puerto Ricans.
Another early indicator (Ohio counts its votes quickly) will be the fate of incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. If he can hold on against the Trumpian tendencies of that state’s electorate, it could be a major indicator of things to come.
The Harris campaign estimates that we could know the result in Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia on Tuesday night and in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Wednesday. Arizona and Nevada tend to take a little longer. All bets are off if the margins are so close that provisional and mail ballots could be determinative.
A few things are certain:
*Donald Trump will declare victory; the only question –maybe worth a ‘fun’ bet on– will be what time. He will also declare that voter fraud has occurred.
*Americans, particularly in the seven swing states, are about to be bombarded with dis and misinformation. The word “bombarded” is an accurate description; these lies and distortions are the artillery of the 21st Century.
*Life will go on. Regardless of the outcome, changes for good or bad won’t happen for many months. Keeping a non-panicked perspective is the only sensible plan for now.
Here’s my plan for the next couple of days:
I will post multiple times per day, but be very careful about facts claimed. Each post will start with a date and time for future reference.
I will report and clearly label significant developments that possibly are not reality based, with the aim of alerting readers to the overall picture. Today, for instance, there will be a gazillion stories purported to be coming from voting locations.
I hope you have cast your ballot or will vote today. Turnout, from what I’ve heard, sucks in San Diego. See my voting guides:
